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general:projections:wam-scenario [2021/04/23 08:28] – created braunsgeneral:projections:wam-scenario [2021/12/15 20:00] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 **Reduction in agriculture through a bundle of measures quantified as an agricultural package:** **Reduction in agriculture through a bundle of measures quantified as an agricultural package:**
  
-Basis for modeling of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions was the 2020 submission of emission reporting (Thünen-Report 77((Thuenen-Report 77 (2020): Calculations of gaseous and particulate emissions from German agriculture 1990 – 2018, https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-report/Thuenen_Report_77.pdf))). Starting point were the projections of the Thünen baseline projection 2020 - 2030. Modeled mitigation measures are according to the National Air Pollution Control Programme 2019 (NAPCP 2019) and, additionally, from the Climate Protection Programme 2030.+Basis for modeling of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions was the 2020 submission of emission reporting (Thünen-Report 77((Thuenen-Report 77 (2020): Calculations of gaseous and particulate emissions from German agriculture 1990 – 2018, https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-report/Thuenen_Report_77.pdf))). Starting point were the projections of the Thünen baseline projection 2020 - 2030((Thuenen-Report 82 (2020): Thünen-Baseline 2020 – 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland, https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-report/Thuenen_Report_82.pdf)). For further description please check the chapter ‚WM scenario‘. Modeled mitigation measures are according to the National Air Pollution Control Programme 2019 (NAPCP 2019) and, additionally, from the Climate Protection Programme 2030.
  
-In the projections of NAPCP 2019, two variants had been calculated: +In the projections of NAPCP 2019, two variants had been calculated in 2030: 
  
    - The measures are carried out in full.    - The measures are carried out in full.
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 Small farm exclusions resulted in mitigation being smaller by approx. 3 per cent. In the updated projections, small farm exclusions, other exceptions from and implementation of measures deviating from the assumptions were not modeled explicitly. Instead, it is assumed that they result in 10 per cent lower mitigation. Small farm exclusions resulted in mitigation being smaller by approx. 3 per cent. In the updated projections, small farm exclusions, other exceptions from and implementation of measures deviating from the assumptions were not modeled explicitly. Instead, it is assumed that they result in 10 per cent lower mitigation.
 +
 +For calculating the emission mitigation potential in 2025 the assumptions for 2030 (described below) were assumed either to be only partially achieved or to be already fully achieved depending on the measure. That is determined by the assumed time that it will take for each measure until it reaches the assumed effect in practice after implementation.
  
 The inventory model can only calculate complete scenarios. The effect of individual measures was quantified by starting with the baseline scenario and sequentially calculating scenarios with mitigation measures added until arriving at the complete WAM scenario. Because mitigation effects of measures are interdependent, the quantified effects of individual measures partly depend on the order of scenarios and cannot account for all interactions. Therefore, the reported additional reduction achieved by a measure cannot to be equated with an isolated effect of the measure. Focus of interpretation should be the complete WAM scenario that includes all mitigation measures and the effect of their interactions. In the WAM scenario, the measures listed below reduce NH<sub>3</sub> emissions by 57.8 kt NH<sub>3</sub>. The inventory model can only calculate complete scenarios. The effect of individual measures was quantified by starting with the baseline scenario and sequentially calculating scenarios with mitigation measures added until arriving at the complete WAM scenario. Because mitigation effects of measures are interdependent, the quantified effects of individual measures partly depend on the order of scenarios and cannot account for all interactions. Therefore, the reported additional reduction achieved by a measure cannot to be equated with an isolated effect of the measure. Focus of interpretation should be the complete WAM scenario that includes all mitigation measures and the effect of their interactions. In the WAM scenario, the measures listed below reduce NH<sub>3</sub> emissions by 57.8 kt NH<sub>3</sub>.
  
-   * 70 per cent of the cattle and pig slurry is digested in biogas plants (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__The proportion of liquid manure going into a biogas plant was set to 70 per cent for both cattle and pigs (the proportions of solid cattle manure and poultry manure that are digested remain as in 2018).\\ \\ Calculated emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: - 5.06 (i. e. emission increase)+   * 70 per cent of the cattle and pig slurry is digested in biogas plants (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030).\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The proportion of liquid manure going into a biogas plant was set to 70 per cent for both cattle and pigs (the proportions of solid cattle manure and poultry manure that are digested remain as in 2018).\\ \\ Calculated emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: - 5.06 (i. e. emission increase)
        
-   * No use of broadcast application on uncultivated arable land and incorporation of liquid manure within an hour. This measure only affects liquid manure (slurry, leachate, digestates).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The distribution frequencies already reduced in the baseline for broadcast application with incorporation <1h and <4h (the latter only exists for manure according to DÜV 2020) were added to the corresponding frequencies for trailing hose application and set to zero for broadcast application. In addition, the incorporation of leachate within 4 hours, which is still permitted under DÜV 2020, was reduced to incorporation within 1 hour.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 1.47\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: - 3.59+   * No use of broadcast application on uncultivated arable land and incorporation of liquid manure within an hour. This measure only affects liquid manure (slurry, leachate, digestates).\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The distribution frequencies already reduced in the baseline for broadcast application with incorporation <1h and <4h (the latter only exists for manure according to DÜV 2020) were added to the corresponding frequencies for trailing hose application and set to zero for broadcast application. In addition, the incorporation of leachate within 4 hours, which is still permitted under DÜV 2020, was reduced to incorporation within 1 hour.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 1.47\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: - 3.59
  
-   * Uncovered external storage facilities for liquid manure / digestates are at least covered with a plastic film or comparable technology. A one-to-one implementation in inventory model GAS-EM is not possible, since for digestates only "gas-tight storage" and "non-gas-tight storage" is implemented.\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The current distribution frequencies for "external slurry storage facility without cover", "external slurry storage facility with natural floating cover" and "external slurry storage facility with artificial floating cover" have been set to zero and added to the distribution frequency for "external slurry storage facility with foil cover". In the case of digestate storage facilities, it was assumed that 90 per cent of the digestate storage facilities are gas-tight. In the baseline (and also currently) around 60 per cent of the digestate storage facilities are gas-tight.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 6.76\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 3.16+   * Uncovered external storage facilities for liquid manure / digestates are at least covered with a plastic film or comparable technology. A one-to-one implementation in inventory model GAS-EM is not possible, since for digestates only "gas-tight storage" and "non-gas-tight storage" is implemented.\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The current distribution frequencies for "external slurry storage facility without cover", "external slurry storage facility with natural floating cover" and "external slurry storage facility with artificial floating cover" have been set to zero and added to the distribution frequency for "external slurry storage facility with foil cover". In the case of digestate storage facilities, it was assumed that 90 per cent of the digestate storage facilities are gas-tight. In the baseline (and also currently) around 60 per cent of the digestate storage facilities are gas-tight.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 6.76\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 3.16
  
  
-   * Air scrubber systems in 75 per cent of the agricultural operations regulated under IED (permitted after type of procedure G in the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV), 25 per cent of the agricultural IED operations reduce 40 per cent of emissions through further system-integrated measures in housing.\\ Air scrubber systems for pigs reduce the NH<sub>3</sub> emissions in the stable by 80 per cent on average; this percentage is retained. A reduction rate of 70 per cent is assumed for air scrubber systems for poultry. It should be noted that the reductions were not calculated for turkeys, as these are excluded from the requirement in the Technical Instructions on Air Quality Control (TA-Luft).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ For pigs and poultry, the mean reduction performance from air scrubber systems and “further system-integrated measures” was calculated (pigs: 0.75 * 80 % + 0.25 * 40 % = 70 %; poultry: 0.75 * 70 % + 0.25 * 40% = 62.5 %) and with this the emissions of the animals in agricultural IED operations are calculated as if they were air scrubber systems with a correspondingly lower output.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 13.61\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 16.77+   * Air scrubber systems in 75 per cent of the agricultural operations regulated under IED (permitted after type of procedure G in the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV), 25 per cent of the agricultural IED operations reduce 40 per cent of emissions through further system-integrated measures in housing.\\ Air scrubber systems for pigs reduce the NH<sub>3</sub> emissions in the stable by 80 per cent on average; this percentage is retained. A reduction rate of 70 per cent is assumed for air scrubber systems for poultry. It should be noted that the reductions were not calculated for turkeys, as these are excluded from the requirement in the Technical Instructions on Air Quality Control (TA-Luft).\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ For pigs and poultry, the mean reduction performance from air scrubber systems and “further system-integrated measures” was calculated (pigs: 0.75 * 80 % + 0.25 * 40 % = 70 %; poultry: 0.75 * 70 % + 0.25 * 40% = 62.5 %) and with this the emissions of the animals in agricultural IED operations are calculated as if they were air scrubber systems with a correspondingly lower efficiency.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 13.61\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 16.77
  
  
-   * 75 per cent of the agricultural operations that are permitted after type of procedure V in the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV (smaller than IED operations) reduce 40 per cent through system-integrated measures in housing, 25 per cent of these operations do not reduce emissions.\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ Agricultural operations (type of procedure V) reduce the emissions from housing by a total of 30 % (0.75 * 40 % + 0.25 * 0 % = 30 %). This was mathematically integrated into the measure above. This results in the following total housing reduction performances for the individual animal categories (rounded reduction percentages are shown, unrounded numbers were used for calculation):\\ \\ +   * 75 per cent of the agricultural operations that are permitted after type of procedure V in the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV (smaller than IED operations) reduce 40 per cent through system-integrated measures in housing, 25 per cent of these operations do not reduce emissions.\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ Agricultural operations (type of procedure V) reduce the emissions from housing by a total of 30 % (0.75 * 40 % + 0.25 * 0 % = 30 %). This was mathematically integrated into the measure above. This results in the following total housing reduction performances for the individual animal categories (rounded reduction percentages are shown, unrounded numbers were used for calculation):\\ \\ 
     * Sows: an effective emission reduction of 63.0 per cent was calculated for 54.2 per cent of the animals     * Sows: an effective emission reduction of 63.0 per cent was calculated for 54.2 per cent of the animals
     * Weaners: an effective emission reduction of 59.4 per cent was calculated for 45.8 per cent of the animals     * Weaners: an effective emission reduction of 59.4 per cent was calculated for 45.8 per cent of the animals
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-   * 50 per cent of slurry storage underneath slatted floors is replaced by external storage with at least a plastic film cover\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The current distribution frequency for "storage under slatted floor" has been halved and this amount has been added to the distribution frequency for "external slurry storage with foil cover".\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 0.77\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 19.68+   * 50 per cent of slurry storage underneath slatted floors is replaced by external storage with at least a plastic film cover\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The current distribution frequency for "storage under slatted floor" has been halved and this amount has been added to the distribution frequency for "external slurry storage with foil cover".\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 0.77\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 19.68
  
  
-   * 5 per cent reduction of N excretion by protein-optimized feeding in cattle husbandry\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The N and TAN excretions in the inventory model were reduced with a reduction factor of 0.95.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 11.44\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 31.12+   * 5 per cent reduction of N excretion by protein-optimized feeding in cattle husbandry\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The N and TAN excretions in the inventory model were reduced with a reduction factor of 0.95.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 11.44\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 31.12
  
  
-   *System-integrated measures in cattle housing (> 100 cattle), 50 per cent implemented\\ The introduction of a "grooved floor" was calculated as an additional measure in cattle housing, i.e. the stable is kept clean by regularly wiping the floor. For this, an emission reduction of 25 per cent compared to a normal, slurry-based loose housing is assumed. Since 50 per cent implementation is assumed for this measure, the average reduction is 12.5 per cent.\\ Stable size distributions are not known for Germany. As an alternative, herd sizes for 2016 were calculated and made available by the Federal Statistical Office. According to this, 80 per cent of all dairy cows and 72 per cent of all heifers and male beef cattle are kept in herds with greater than / equal to 100 cattle.\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ For dairy cows, heifers and male beef cattle with herd sizes greater than or equal to 100 cattle, the emission factor for “slurry-based loose housing” was reduced by 12.5 per cent. Mathematically, the following emission reductions in the EF result: For dairy cows from 19.7 to 17.730; for heifers and male beef cattle from 19.7 to 17.927 kg NH<sub>3</sub>-N per kg TAN. For the other cattle categories, “slurry-based loose housing” plays only a minor or no role and no effect of this measure was projected.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 4.34\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 35.46+   *System-integrated measures in cattle housing (> 100 cattle), 50 per cent implemented\\ The introduction of a "grooved floor" was calculated as an additional measure in cattle housing, i.e. the stable is kept clean by regularly wiping the floor. For this, an emission reduction of 25 per cent compared to a normal, slurry-based loose housing is assumed. Since 50 per cent implementation is assumed for this measure, the average reduction is 12.5 per cent.\\ Stable size distributions are not known for Germany. As an alternative, herd sizes for 2016 were calculated and made available by the Federal Statistical Office. According to this, 80 per cent of all dairy cows and 72 per cent of all heifers and male beef cattle are kept in herds with greater than / equal to 100 cattle.\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ For dairy cows, heifers and male beef cattle with herd sizes greater than or equal to 100 cattle, the emission factor for “slurry-based loose housing” was reduced by 12.5 per cent. Mathematically, the following emission reductions in the EF result: For dairy cows from 19.7 to 17.730; for heifers and male beef cattle from 19.7 to 17.927 kg NH<sub>3</sub>-N per kg TAN. For the other cattle categories, “slurry-based loose housing” plays only a minor or no role and no effect of this measure was projected.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 4.34\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 35.46
  
  
-   * Application of liquid manure on tilled fields and grassland only with injection / slot techniques or acidification, 50 per cent implemented\\ For the sake of simplicity and due to data limitations, it was assumed for the calculation that the emissions are reduced in the same way with acidification as with the use of injection / slot techniques.\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The current distribution frequencies for application on grassland and in the stand (except for "slurry cultivators") have been halved and the remaining half has been added to the distribution frequency for "injection techniques". The EFs for injection / slot techniques / acidification (based on TAN, in kg per kg N) are: for cattle slurry or digestates: 0.24; for pig slurry: 0.06 and for leachate 0.04.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 22.23\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 57.69+   * Application of liquid manure on tilled fields and grassland only with injection / slot techniques or acidification, 50 per cent implemented\\ For the sake of simplicity and due to data limitations, it was assumed for the calculation that the emissions are reduced in the same way with acidification as with the use of injection / slot techniques.\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The current distribution frequencies for application on grassland and in the stand (except for "slurry cultivators") have been halved and the remaining half has been added to the distribution frequency for "injection techniques". The EFs for injection / slot techniques / acidification (based on TAN, in kg per kg N) are: for cattle slurry or digestates: 0.24; for pig slurry: 0.06 and for leachate 0.04.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 22.23\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 57.69
  
  
-   * Organic farming on 20 per cent of the area (Measure 3.4.5.3 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ Underlying changes were taken from parallel projections for the 2021 Projection Report. With an increased expansion of organic farming to 20 per cent of the agricultural area by the year 2030 (at the same time the goal of the German Sustainability Strategy), in comparison to a more moderate expansion to 14 per cent, there is in particular a reduction in the mineral fertilizer applied. In addition, projected increase of animal performance is slightly reduced compared to the baseline. There are further changes for the cultivated areas and yields. However, the latter have no additional impact on the level of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions.\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ A new input data set concerning mineral fertilizers, animal performance, cultivated areas and yields was taken from the GHG projections. Otherwise it was calculated as in measure 3.9.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 0.30 (through animal performance), 2.29 (through less mineral fertilizers)\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 60.28+   * Organic farming on 20 per cent of the area (Measure 3.4.5.3 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ Underlying changes were taken from parallel projections for the 2021 Projection Report. With an increased expansion of organic farming to 20 per cent of the agricultural area by the year 2030 (at the same time the goal of the German Sustainability Strategy), in comparison to a more moderate expansion to 14 per cent, there is in particular a reduction in the mineral fertilizer applied. In addition, projected increase of animal performance is slightly reduced compared to the baseline. There are further changes for the cultivated areas and yields. However, the latter have no additional impact on the level of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions.\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ A new input data set concerning mineral fertilizers, animal performance, cultivated areas and yields was taken from the GHG projections. Otherwise it was calculated as in measure 3.9.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 0.30 (through animal performance), 2.29 (through less mineral fertilizers)\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 60.28
   
-   * Reduction of the N balance to 70 kg / ha (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ To achieve the climate protection goal (also a goal of the German Sustainability Strategy) of the overall balance of 70 kg N / ha (three-year average) in 2030, the N input must be further reduced beyond the previous measures (see 2021 Projection Report).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The N supply via mineral fertilizers was reduced by 8 kg / ha.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 3.94\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 64.22+   * Reduction of the N balance to 70 kg / ha (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ To achieve the climate protection goal (also a goal of the German Sustainability Strategy) of the overall balance of 70 kg N / ha (three-year average) in 2030, the N input must be further reduced beyond the previous measures (see 2021 Projection Report).\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ The N supply via mineral fertilizers was reduced by 8 kg / ha.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 3.94\\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 64.22
  
  
-   * Subtraction of 10 per cent on the total reduction\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ In order to take into account an incomplete implementation of the measures, such as exceptions for small and very small farms, the overall reduction is reduced by 10 per cent at the end.\\ \\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 57.80+   * Subtraction of 10 per cent on the total reduction\\ \\ __Assumptions to model the mitigation potential in 2030:__ In order to take into account an incomplete implementation of the measures, such as exceptions for small and very small farms, the overall reduction is reduced by 10 per cent at the end.\\ \\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH<sub>3</sub>: 57.80