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general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2021/01/20 07:51] – Fix links to spreadsheet files hausmann | general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2021/02/19 09:50] – [NOx] Grammar fix hausmann | ||
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+ | ====== Chapter 1.7 - General Uncertainty Evaluation ===== | ||
+ | |||
===== Introduction ===== | ===== Introduction ===== | ||
+ | |||
{{ general: | {{ general: | ||
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Germany currently reports detailed uncertainty information for five pollutants: NO< | Germany currently reports detailed uncertainty information for five pollutants: NO< | ||
- | ^ ^ Base year [kt] ^ 2018 [kt] ^ Trend [%] ^ Method | + | ^ ^ Base year [kt] ^ 2019 [kt] ^ Trend [%] ^ Method |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | | |||| MC | -10.09 | +12.36 | -6.88 | | + | | |||| MC | -10.83 | +14.23 | -8.65 | +14.07 | -16.78 | +19.78 | |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | | |||| MC | -8.05 | +8.86 | -7.61 | +7.91 | -2.15 | +2.33 | | + | | |||| MC | -8.02 | +8.94 | -6.47 | +6.87 | -1.84 | +1.96 | |
- | ^ NMVOC | + | ^ NMVOC |
- | | |||| MC | -14.00 | +21.45 | -13.27 | +21.67 | -20.24 | +25.3 | | + | | |||| MC | -14.58 | +22.58 | -15.22 | +29.25 | -22.98 | |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | | |||| MC | -10.08 | +11.30 | -9.59 | +9.80 | -498.94 | +535.84 | | + | | |||| MC | -10.19 | +11.70 | -9.49 | +9.86 | -336.77 | +364.82 | |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | | |||| MC | -10.33 | +12.57 | -15.16 | +17.10 | -15.93 | +18.55 | | + | | |||| MC | -10.72 | +12.82 | -16.54 | +19.03 | -16.90 | +19.53 | |
===== Uncertainties per pollutant ===== | ===== Uncertainties per pollutant ===== | ||
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{{general: | {{general: | ||
- | Compared to other pollutants, NO< | + | Compared to other pollutants, NO< |
- | Using the MC simulation, the top three contributors to the overall uncertainty are [[sector: | + | Using the MC simulation, the top three contributors to the overall uncertainty are [[sector: |
==== SO2 ==== | ==== SO2 ==== | ||
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{{general: | {{general: | ||
- | SO< | + | SO< |
==== NMVOC ==== | ==== NMVOC ==== | ||
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{{general: | {{general: | ||
- | NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products is well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -13% to +22% in 2018, which amounts to about 400kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, | + | NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products is well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -15% to +29% in 2019, which amounts to about 500kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, |
==== NH3 ==== | ==== NH3 ==== | ||
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{{general: | {{general: | ||
- | Uncertainty in the NH< | + | Uncertainty in the NH< |
==== PM2.5 ==== | ==== PM2.5 ==== | ||
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{{general: | {{general: | ||
- | PM< | + | PM< |
===== Other pollutants ===== | ===== Other pollutants ===== | ||
There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow. | There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow. |