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general:projections:recalculations [2021/04/23 08:38] – created braunsgeneral:projections:recalculations [2021/12/15 19:07] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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-====== Introduction ======+===== Recalculations =====
  
-===== Context =====+Due to recalculations for the emission inventory submission 2020, all emission reduction potentials had to be updated compared to the emission inventory submission 2018, upon which the emission projections reporting in 2019 was based. Furthermore, measures that had been included in the former WAM scenario have now been integrated in the WM scenario, as they were put into force in the meantime (e. g. 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV). In addition, updated GHG emission projections using most recent projections of economic and other parameters result in a new projection of activity rates that needs to be considered for updating the emission projections of air pollutants. 
  
-Reliable data on historic emissions are key to the political process and to decisions on abatement technology promotion. However, future emission paths also do have the power to shed a new light on these discussions. Therefore, greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants are inventoried and projected in the same database system using the same structure of detailed time series.+The following figures show the differences between submission 2018 and 2020 for past emissions as well as the differences between the emission projections reported in 2019 and the current projections in the WM and the WAM scenario for each pollutant. For each pollutant a breif explanation of the most relevant reasons for the occurring differences is given.
  
-For the National Air Pollution Control Programme, a new database within this system was created in 2018 that is basically a copy of the German inventory database. In addition, multiple scenarios are taken into account, sketching development of activity data and emission factors up to 2030 and in many cases to 2035. The new system features integrated assessment for both greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants. In particular, existing projections for GHG can be applied to air pollution contexts. The databases used also allow for the flexible combination of distinct scenarios for specific sectors and source categories to add up to a complete projection of the inventory. Furthermore, reduction potentials of mitigation measures can be modelled in detail and quantified directly in the database. The projection database is fully operational and used as the common basis for reporting on emission projections under NEC directive and CLRTAP reporting obligations. +**Nitrogen Oxide (NO<sub>X</sub>)**
  
 +For NO<sub>X</sub> a new version of the HBEFA (4.1) was used for calculating past emissions of road transport in the submission 2020 leading to higher historical emissions for all vehicle categories (HDV, LDV, PC). The vehicles with higher emission factors compared to former HBEFA versions stay in the fleet until 2030. This also explains the differences between the two WAM scenarios. Whereas the WM scenarios show a similar difference in 2020, caused by the same reason, this is nearly compensated until 2030, where the current WM scenario ends up with lower emissions than the WM scenario from 2019. This can be explained by the coal phase-out, that has been taken from the former WAM into the current WM scenario leading to lower projected emissions from the energy sector.
  
-===== Policies =====+{{:general:projections:nox_recalculation.png?|}}
  
-For the past few years, climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been an important issue in society and politics. GHG emission inventories have seen a lot of attention as a consequence. However, there have also been a couple of air pollution related headlines, including "diesel gate" and particulate matter concentrations caused by residential wood burning. In Germany, these discussions have led to a number of legislative projects and new regulations which have the power to significantly change emission levels. Thus, projections generally show further decline in emissions, even for ammonia, where not much progress has been achieved during the last decades. The main policy drivers are listed and contextualized below: +**Sulfur Dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>)**
-    * Energy +
-      * Phase-out of coal use for energy production until 2038 with significant reductions before 2030 +
-      * Recent high Emission Tradring System (ETS) prices and low natural gas prices cause a shift in the energy market, abandoning coal even faster +
-      * Increased production of renewable energy +
-      * New regulations with stricter limit values for some installation types+
  
-    * Transport +The coal phase-out is also the reason for the differences between the two WM scenarios for SO<sub>2</sub>. Furthermore, the reduction potential had been overestimated in the WAM scenario from 2019. This can be explained by a bug in calculating sulphur dioxide emissions from refineries in the 2019 WAM scenario, that more than halved the emission factors for SO<sub>2</sub> in this sector unintentionally.
-      * New vehicle regulations, including updated Euro norms +
-      * More electric vehicles, more public transport+
  
-    * Agriculture +{{:general:projections:so2_recalculation.png?|}}
-      * New "Düngeverordnung" (fertiliser ordinance) as well as other legislative and incentive measures to reduce fertiliser use and lower animal numbers+
  
 +**Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC)**
 +
 +The current NMVOC emission projections show a different trend than the 2019 projections in both scenarios, caused by updated economic projections, which strongly influence the NMVOC emission projections from solvent production and use.
 +
 +{{:general:projections:nmvoc_recalculation.png?|}}
 +
 +**Ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>)**
 +
 +The current WM scenario for NH<sub>3</sub> shows a significant decrease compared to the 2019 WM scenario mainly caused by the assumed effects of the new Fertilizing Ordinance (DÜV 2020) from 2020. However, the remaining reduction potentials in the current WAM scenario result in a less steep decrease from 2020 to 2030 than in the 2019 WAM scenario. The assumptions for calculating the reduction potential of measures in the WAM scenario were carefully updated by the Thünen Institute according to current political activities and incentives for their implementation in practice as described above.
 +
 +{{:general:projections:nh3_recalculation.png?|}}
 +
 +**Fine Particulate Matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>)**
 +
 +For fine PM (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), the recalculations for past emissions are not that relevant. Nevertheless, the projected emissions are higher than those reported in 2019, at least compared to the former WAM scenario. This is mainly caused by three effects:
 +
 +First, there are higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> emission factors in the HBEFA 4.1 also influencing the future fleet (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.5 kt). Second, there is a higher projected use of solid biomass in small combustion installations due to climate protection policies that are still promoting biomass as a renewable and climate friendly energy source ignoring the antagonism with other environmental goals (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.3 kt). And third, we applied a different methodology for the projection of activity rates in certain industrial sectors that have no GHG emissions and therefore no projection of activity rates in the underlying dataset (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.5 kt). While assuming the latest historical activity rate as constant for projections reported in 2019 (that means using the value of 2016 from the emission inventory submission 2018), for the current projections the average of the last 10 years (2008-2018 according to submission 2020) was set constant for the projection years. This leads for example, to significantly higher emissions in the source category handling and storage of bulk products. However, in most cases estimates can be considered conservative.
 +
 +{{:general:projections:pm2.5_recalculation.png?|}}