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appendices:appendix2.2-road-transport [2021/04/14 20:42] – kotzullaappendices:appendix2.2-road-transport [2024/11/06 13:54] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 ==== Cross-check with Energy Balance==== ==== Cross-check with Energy Balance====
  
-The Energy Balance is also used to model transport-quantity structures in TREMOD. For example, the German Economic Institute (DIW) carries out a fuel-consumption calculation in order to derive total mileage travelled (DIW, 2002). Some of the results of the calculation, for automobile transports, are entered into TREMOD. The DIW uses a fuel-consumption calculation in order to determine total domestic mileage; TREMOD uses some other sources and assumptions to estimate total domestic mileage – especially for goods transports (cf. the detailed description in (Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002)) [((bibcite 1))]). This estimate also takes the basic figures of the Energy Balance into account. +The Energy Balance is also used to model transport-quantity structures in TREMOD. For example, the German Economic Institute (DIW) carries out a fuel-consumption calculation in order to derive total mileage travelled (DIW, 2002). Some of the results of the calculation, for automobile transports, are entered into TREMOD. The DIW uses a fuel-consumption calculation in order to determine total domestic mileage; TREMOD uses some other sources and assumptions to estimate total domestic mileage – especially for goods transports (cf. the detailed description in (Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002)) [(KNOERR2002)]. This estimate also takes the basic figures of the Energy Balance into account. 
  
 On the other hand, due to the many dependencies and uncertainties in the model, and to the basic data that must be taken into account, no feasible means is available for comparing mileage and energy consumption, for each year and each vehicle layer, in such a manner that the results yield the Energy Balance sum and the mileage and average energy consumption figures in the time series are plausible. For this reason, the TREMOD results for the fuel consumption are corrected, at the end of the process, in such a manner that the total for each reference year corresponds to the relevant figure in the Energy Balance. On the other hand, due to the many dependencies and uncertainties in the model, and to the basic data that must be taken into account, no feasible means is available for comparing mileage and energy consumption, for each year and each vehicle layer, in such a manner that the results yield the Energy Balance sum and the mileage and average energy consumption figures in the time series are plausible. For this reason, the TREMOD results for the fuel consumption are corrected, at the end of the process, in such a manner that the total for each reference year corresponds to the relevant figure in the Energy Balance.
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 Since TREMOD calculates fuel consumption in tonnes, the results first have to be converted into terajoule [TJ]. For this purpose the net calorific values of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) are used. Since TREMOD calculates fuel consumption in tonnes, the results first have to be converted into terajoule [TJ]. For this purpose the net calorific values of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) are used.
  
-__Table 1: Net calorific values for gasoline and diesel oil__ +__Table 1: Net calorific values for gasoline and diesel oil, in kJ/kg__ 
-| **Year** | **Gasoline** | **Diesel Oil** | +|             ^  Gasoline  ^  Diesel  ^ 
-|~ 1990-1992 | 43.543 MJ/kg | 42.704 MJ/kg | +^ 1990-2000   |  43,543    |  42,959  | 
-|~ since 1993 | 43.543 MJ/kg | 42.960 MJ/kg |+^ 2005        |  43,543    |  42,959  | 
 +^ 2006        |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2007        |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2008        |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2009        |  43,542    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2010        |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2011        |  43,544    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2012        |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2013        |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2014        |  43,542    |  42,649  | 
 +^ 2015        |  42,281    |  42,694  | 
 +^ as of 2016  |  42,281    |  42,648  |
 Source: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen) Source: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen)
  
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 __Table 2: Correction factors for adjustment of TREMOD estimates to the National Energy Balance__ __Table 2: Correction factors for adjustment of TREMOD estimates to the National Energy Balance__
 +|        ^  Gasoline fuels  ^ Diesel fuels              ||
 +^        |  PC, LDV, M2W    |  PC, LDV      |  HDV, Bus  |
 +^  1990  |  1.086           |  1.086        |  0.983     |
 +^  1995  |  1.046           |  1.046        |  0.931     |
 +^  2000  |  0.995           |  0.995        |  0.957     |
 +^  2005  |  0.928           |  0.928        |  0.724     |
 +^  2010  |  0.860           |  0.860        |  0.869     |
 +^  2011  |  0.870           |  0.870        |  0.846     |
 +^  2012  |  0.846           |  0.846        |  0.913     |
 +^  2013  |  0.874           |  0.874        |  0.899     |
 +^  2014  |  0.849           |  0.849        |  0.902     |
 +^  2015  |  0.923           |  0.923        |  0.820     |
 +^  2016  |  0.925           |  0.925        |  0.811     |
 +^  2017  |  0.910           |  0.910        |  0.840     |
 +^  2018  |  0.880           |  0.880        |  0.900     |
 +^  2019  |  0.882           |  0.882        |  0.863     |
 +^  2020  |  0.887           |  0.887        |  0.939     |
 +^  2021  |  0.901           |  0.901        |  0.847     |
 +^  2022  |  0.920           |  0.920        |  0.820     |
  
-Source: TREMOD (Knörr, W. et al. (2020a)) [(KNOERR2020a)]+Source: TREMOD (Knörr, W. et al. (2023a)) [(KNOERR2023a)]
  
 === Allocation of biofuels, petroleum and LPG to the structural elements === === Allocation of biofuels, petroleum and LPG to the structural elements ===
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 Mileage data were updated on the basis of the "2002 mileage survey" ("Fahrleistungserhebung 2002"; Institute of Applied Transport and Tourism Research (IVT, 2004 [(IVT2004)]), the "2005 road-transport census" "Straßenverkehrszählungen 2005"; Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt), 2007 [(BAST2007)]) and data on growth of transports on federal highways (BASt, 2008). Mileage data were updated on the basis of the "2002 mileage survey" ("Fahrleistungserhebung 2002"; Institute of Applied Transport and Tourism Research (IVT, 2004 [(IVT2004)]), the "2005 road-transport census" "Straßenverkehrszählungen 2005"; Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt), 2007 [(BAST2007)]) and data on growth of transports on federal highways (BASt, 2008).
 +
  
 ==== Shifting of fuel purchases to other countries ==== ==== Shifting of fuel purchases to other countries ====
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 ===== Emission factors===== ===== Emission factors=====
  
-All emission factors are listed in the "Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport 4.1" (Notter et al., (2019) [(NOTTER2007)]), a reference work prepared via co-operation, between the environmental protection agencies of Germany, Switzerland and Austria also supported by Sweden, Norway, France as well as the JRC (European Research Center of the European Commission), in derivation of emission factors for road traffic. The emission factors in the manual originate predominantly from the measurement programmes of TÜV Rheinland (TÜV, Technical Control Association) and RWTÜV. Those programmes have included fundamental surveys for the reference years 1989/1990. In those surveys, a new method was used, for both passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles, whereby emission factors were derived according to driving habits and the traffic situation. Within the context of field monitoring data, the passenger-car emission factors were updated for cars produced up to 1994. Version 3.4 of the "Emission-factor Manual for Road Transports" ("Handbuch der Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs": HBEFA), which is used for the current emissions calculations, draws on findings of the EU working group COST 346 and the ARTEMIS research programme. The emission factors are derived from the development of the various vehicle layers and from the data provided by the HBEFA. The emissions reduction achieved via the introduction of sulphur-free fuels was estimated by the German Environment Agency.+All emission factors are listed in the "Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport" versions 4.1 (Keller et al., (2019) [(KELLER2019)]) and 4.2 (Notter et al., (2022) [(NOTTER2022)]). 
 + 
 +This reference work is prepared via co-operation, between the environmental protection agencies of Germany, Switzerland and Austria also supported by Sweden, Norway, France as well as the JRC (European Research Center of the European Commission), in derivation of emission factors for road traffic.  
 + 
 +The emission factors in this manual originate predominantly from the measurement programmes of TÜV Rheinland (TÜV, Technical Control Association) and RWTÜV. Those programmes have included fundamental surveys for the reference years 1989/1990. In those surveys, a new method was used, for both passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles, whereby emission factors were derived according to driving habits and the traffic situation. Within the context of field monitoring data, the passenger-car emission factors were updated for cars produced up to 1994. Version 3.4 of the "Emission-factor Manual for Road Transports" ("Handbuch der Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs": HBEFA), which is used for the current emissions calculations, draws on findings of the EU working group COST 346 and the ARTEMIS research programme. The emission factors are derived from the development of the various vehicle layers and from the data provided by the HBEFA. The emissions reduction achieved via the introduction of sulphur-free fuels was estimated by the German Environment Agency.
  
 ==== Derivation of emission factors ==== ==== Derivation of emission factors ====
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 Exception: Exception:
-* The SO,,2,, emission factor for petroleum is set to 24 kg/TJ for those years in which diesel fuel has a higher value. In all other years, the lower value for diesel fuel is used. +* The SO<sub>2</sub> emission factor for petroleum is set to 24 kg/TJ for those years in which diesel fuel has a higher value. In all other years, the lower value for diesel fuel is used. 
  
-[(KNOERR2020> Knörr et al. (2002): Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002): Aktualisierung des "Daten- und Rechenmodells": Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1980-2020 : Endbericht / Wolfram Knörr (Projektleiter): Heidelberg [u.a.] 2002. )] +[(KNOERR2002> Knörr et al. (2002): Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002): Aktualisierung des "Daten- und Rechenmodells": Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1980-2020 : Endbericht / Wolfram Knörr (Projektleiter): Heidelberg [u.a.] 2002. )] 
-[(KNOERR2020a> Knörr et al. (2020a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2020. )].+[(KNOERR2023a> Knörr et al. (2023a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2023. )]
 [(IVT2004> IVT, 2004: Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und tourismusforschung e.V.: Fahrleistungserhebung 2002, Teil: Begleitung und Auswertung. Untersuchung im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, Projektnummer FE 82.201/2001. Heilbronn/Mannheim. )] [(IVT2004> IVT, 2004: Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und tourismusforschung e.V.: Fahrleistungserhebung 2002, Teil: Begleitung und Auswertung. Untersuchung im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, Projektnummer FE 82.201/2001. Heilbronn/Mannheim. )]
 [(BAST2007> BASt, 2007: Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt): Unterreihe Verkehrstechnik; V 164: "Straßenverkehrszählung 2005: Ergebnisse", Thorsten Kathmann, Hartmut Ziegler, Bernd Thomas; 62 Seiten; Bergisch Gladbach, 2007. )] [(BAST2007> BASt, 2007: Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt): Unterreihe Verkehrstechnik; V 164: "Straßenverkehrszählung 2005: Ergebnisse", Thorsten Kathmann, Hartmut Ziegler, Bernd Thomas; 62 Seiten; Bergisch Gladbach, 2007. )]
 [(LENK2004> Lenk et. al (2004): Lenk, T., Vogelbusch, F., & Falken, C.: Auswirkungen des Tanktourismus auf das deutsche Steueraufkommen – eine finanzwissenschaftliche Bestandsaufnahme. Paper presented at the UNITI Bundesverband mittelständischer Mineralölunternehmen e. V. - Mitgliederversammlung 2004, München. )] [(LENK2004> Lenk et. al (2004): Lenk, T., Vogelbusch, F., & Falken, C.: Auswirkungen des Tanktourismus auf das deutsche Steueraufkommen – eine finanzwissenschaftliche Bestandsaufnahme. Paper presented at the UNITI Bundesverband mittelständischer Mineralölunternehmen e. V. - Mitgliederversammlung 2004, München. )]
 [(BMLFUW2005> BMLFUW, 2005: Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (Bundesministerium für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft): Abschätzung der Auswirkungen des Tanktourismus auf den Treibstoffverbrauch und die Entwicklung der CO,,2,,-Emissionen in Österreich.; Wien, 2005. )] [(BMLFUW2005> BMLFUW, 2005: Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (Bundesministerium für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft): Abschätzung der Auswirkungen des Tanktourismus auf den Treibstoffverbrauch und die Entwicklung der CO,,2,,-Emissionen in Österreich.; Wien, 2005. )]
-[(NOTTER2007> Notter et al., (2007): Notter, B., Keller, M., Althaus, H.-J., Cox, B., Knörr, W., Heidt, Chr., Biemann, K., Räder, D., Jamet M.: Handbuch für Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs (HBEFA) Version 4.1. from MK Consulting GmbH, INFRAS AG & IVT / TU Graz; https://www.hbefa.net/d/documents/HBEFA41_Development_Report.pdf; Bern, 2019.)]+[(KELLER2019> Keller et al. (2019): Keller, M., Hausberger, S., Matzer, C., Wüthrich, P., & Notter, B.: Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport, version 4.1 (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs 4.1) URL: https://assets-global.website-files.com/6207922a2acc01004530a67e/625e8c74c30e26e022b319c8_HBEFA41_Development_Report.pdf - Dokumentation, Bern, 2019. )] 
 +[(NOTTER2022> Notter et al. (2022): Notter, B., Cox, B., Hausberger, S., Matzer, S., Weller, K., Dippold, M., Politschnig, N., Lipp, S. (IVT TU Graz), Allekotte, M., Knörr, W. (ifeu), André, M. (IFSTTAR), Gagnepain, L. (ADEME), Hult, C., Jerksjö, M. (IVL): Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport, version 4.2 (Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs 4.2) URL: https://assets-global.website-files.com/6207922a2acc01004530a67e/6217584903e9f9b63093c8c0_HBEFA42_Update_Documentation.pdf - Dokumentation, Bern, 2022. )]