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general:projections:recalculations [2023/03/15 11:17] – hausmanngeneral:projections:recalculations [2024/11/06 14:54] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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-<WRAP center round info 60%> 
-Projections have not yet been updated for the 2023 submission. The content below is outdated. 
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 ===== Recalculations ===== ===== Recalculations =====
  
-Due to recalculations for the emission inventory submission 2020, all emission reduction potentials had to be updated compared to the emission inventory submission 2018, upon which the emission projections reporting in 2019 was based. Furthermore, measures that had been included in the former WAM scenario have now been integrated in the WM scenario, as they were put into force in the meantime (e. g. 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV). In addition, updated GHG emission projections using most recent projections of economic and other parameters result in a new projection of activity rates that needs to be considered for updating the emission projections of air pollutants.  +Due to recalculations in each underlying emission inventory submission, all calculations of emission reduction potentials in the WM and WAM scenario of the respective projection are regularly updated. Furthermore, additional measures that had been included in the WAM scenario in the projection before can become part of the WM scenario in the following projection, as they were put into force in the meantime (e. g. 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV). In addition, updated GHG emission projections using most recent projections of economic and other parameters result in a new projection of activity rates that needs to be considered for updating the emission projections of air pollutants. For the draft German NAPCP of 2023, which is the draft of the second German NAPCP under directive (EU) 2016/2284, last step to check was, whether new additional measures are needed for compliance to the emission reduction commitments, because of the updates described above.
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-The following figures show the differences between submission 2018 and 2020 for past emissions as well as the differences between the emission projections reported in 2019 and the current projections in the WM and the WAM scenario for each pollutant. For each pollutant a breif explanation of the most relevant reasons for the occurring differences is given. +
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-**Nitrogen Oxide (NO<sub>X</sub>)** +
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-For NO<sub>X</sub> a new version of the HBEFA (4.1) was used for calculating past emissions of road transport in the submission 2020 leading to higher historical emissions for all vehicle categories (HDV, LDV, PC). The vehicles with higher emission factors compared to former HBEFA versions stay in the fleet until 2030. This also explains the differences between the two WAM scenarios. Whereas the WM scenarios show a similar difference in 2020, caused by the same reason, this is nearly compensated until 2030, where the current WM scenario ends up with lower emissions than the WM scenario from 2019. This can be explained by the coal phase-out, that has been taken from the former WAM into the current WM scenario leading to lower projected emissions from the energy sector.+
  
-{{:general:projections:nox_recalculation.png?|}}+The following figures show the differences between inventory submissions 2018, 2020 and 2022 for historic emissions as well as the differences between the WAM emission projections reported in 2019 (consistent with the NAPCP 2019), reported in 2021 and reported in 2023 (consistent with the draft NAPCP 2023) for each pollutant. In addition, for the emission projections 2023 the WM scenario is shown up to the year 2040. For each pollutant a brief explanation of the most relevant reasons for the occurring differences compared to the previous reporting is given. For explanation of the differences between reporting in 2021 and 2019 please see the IIR of the 2021 reporting((https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2021/general/projections/recalculations)).
  
-**Sulfur Dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>)**+For NO<sub>X</sub>, recalculations within the inventory submission 2022 lead to changes in historic years predominantly in sector 2.B.2 (nitric acid production)((https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2022/sector/ippu/chemical_industry/nitric_acid_production/start)), that were compensating the positive recalculations from inventory submission 2021, when comparing submissions 2022 and 2020. The current WM scenario is slightly below the WAM scenario of the 2021 projection. Main reasons are the updates in road transport emission factors in HBEFA 4.2 (aging factors, etc.) as well as a higher share of electric vehicles in the 2030 fleet. The current WAM scenario goes further below the WAM scenario of the 2021 projection. An accelerated coal phase-out by 2030, introduction of Euro 7 and a higher share of electric vehicles in the fleet in 2030 in the WAM scenario of the draft NAPCP 2023 are the main drivers for additional emission reductions.
  
-The coal phase-out is also the reason for the differences between the two WM scenarios for SO<sub>2</sub>. Furthermore, the reduction potential had been overestimated in the WAM scenario from 2019. This can be explained by a bug in calculating sulphur dioxide emissions from refineries in the 2019 WAM scenario, that more than halved the emission factors for SO<sub>2</sub> in this sector unintentionally.+In 2020 a significant drop of mileage, against an increasing long-term trend, especially for passenger cars appeared. In combination with an ongoing decrease in the implied emission factors through regular fleet renewal, an extraordinary decrease in NO<sub>X</sub> emissions was the result. This drop in overall mileage of passenger cars, probably caused by the lockdown period during the pandemic as well as a higher share of home office workers, does not appear to be continuing in the coming years. Therefore, the projection follows the long-term trend of increasing mileage, especially for passenger cars. Projected potential emission reductions in road transport are therefore only caused by a further decrease of implied emission factors of the fleet, by regular fleet renewal, Euro 7 and an increasing share of electric vehicles.
  
-{{:general:projections:so2_recalculation.png?|}}+{{:general:projections:nox_recalculation_2023.png?|}}
  
-**Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC)**+For SO<sub>X</sub>, the current WM scenario is slightly above the WAM scenario of the 2021 projection, mainly because of more conservative assumptions regarding decline in SO<sub>X</sub> emissions from the industry sector. Due to the accelerated coal phase-out by 2030 the current WAM scenario is below the former WAM scenarios with a coal phase-out until 2038.
  
-The current NMVOC emission projections show a different trend than the 2019 projections in both scenarios, caused by updated economic projections, which strongly influence the NMVOC emission projections from solvent production and use.+{{:general:projections:sox_recalculation_2023.png?|}}
  
-{{:general:projections:nmvoc_recalculation.png?|}}+NMVOC emission projections are strongly influenced by economic projections. Updates on these are therefore causing changes in NMVOC emission projections. However, the latest historic emissions in 2020 are already below the current projections for 2025 to 2040 in the draft NAPCP 2023, which is caused by decreases over all sectors.
  
-**Ammonia (NH<sub>3</sub>)**+{{:general:projections:nmvoc_recalculation_2023.png?|}}
  
-The current WM scenario for NH<sub>3</sub> shows a significant decrease compared to the 2019 WM scenario mainly caused by the assumed effects of the new Fertilizing Ordinance (DÜV 2020) from 2020. However, the remaining reduction potentials in the current WAM scenario result in a less steep decrease from 2020 to 2030 than in the 2019 WAM scenario. The assumptions for calculating the reduction potential of measures in the WAM scenario were carefully updated by the Thünen Institute according to current political activities and incentives for their implementation in practice as described above.+Submission 2021 contained recalculations of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions in historic years mainly because of introducing dairy heifers (dairy and slaughter heifers are now treated separately in the inventory) and a methodological change in emission calculations for inorganic fertilisers, leading to significantly lower emissions and less variation from one year to another((for further explanation see: https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2021/general/recalculations/ammonia)). This is the main reason that emission projections of the draft NAPCP 2023 are systematically lower than former projections. As a result, absolute emissions to be reached in 2020 and 2030 following the relative reduction commitments are lower than before. Despite a similar trend in the current emission projections compared to 2021 WAM projection, assumptions of reduction potentials of WM and WAM measures are more conservative now, but compensated by assuming further decreases in animal numbers, especially cattle. This is further explained in the draft NAPCP 2023.
  
-{{:general:projections:nh3_recalculation.png?|}}+{{:general:projections:nh3_recalculation_2023.png?|}}
  
-**Fine Particulate Matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>)**+Differences in current projections of fine PM emissions (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) are a consequence of many factors.
  
-For fine PM (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), the recalculations for past emissions are not that relevant. Nevertheless, the projected emissions are higher than those reported in 2019, at least compared to the former WAM scenario. This is mainly caused by three effects:+First, recalculations took place in submission 2021 in sector 2.G in the use of fireworks and the use of tobacco((see https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2021/general/recalculations/pm2.5)) and in submission 2022 in 1.A.3.d. ii (national navigation)((see https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2022/sector/energy/fuel_combustion/transport/navigation/national_navigation)) leading to lower PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions over all historic years compared to submission 2020. The change in 2005 results in lower absolute emissions to be reached in 2020 and 2030 regarding the relative emission reduction commitments compared to the 2021 projections and further in systematically lower projections based on submission 2022 compared to 2021 projections. Still, the WM scenario of the draft NAPCP 2023 is above the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2019 because of the same reason as in 2021 projection (more conservative methodology to project activity rates in certain industrial sectors)((for further explanation see https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2021/general/projections/recalculations)). Finally, the current WAM scenario is compliant with the emission reduction commitment in 2030 due to additional emission reductions through the accelerated coal phase-out by 2030 and the road transport package. Increasing emissions in the building sector due to a projected increase in biomass use can be compensated by additional measures to further reduce the implied emission factors of small combustion installations burning woody biomass. However, if looking at the year 2020 of submission 2022 current WM and WAM scenario are quite conservative due to conservative assumptions over almost all sectors.
  
-First, there are higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> emission factors in the HBEFA 4.1 also influencing the future fleet (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.5 kt). Second, there is a higher projected use of solid biomass in small combustion installations due to climate protection policies that are still promoting biomass as a renewable and climate friendly energy source ignoring the antagonism with other environmental goals (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.3 kt). And third, we applied a different methodology for the projection of activity rates in certain industrial sectors that have no GHG emissions and therefore no projection of activity rates in the underlying dataset (increasing the projection in 2030 by about 1.5 kt). While assuming the latest historical activity rate as constant for projections reported in 2019 (that means using the value of 2016 from the emission inventory submission 2018), for the current projections the average of the last 10 years (2008-2018 according to submission 2020) was set constant for the projection years. This leads for example, to significantly higher emissions in the source category handling and storage of bulk products. However, in most cases estimates can be considered conservative.+{{:general:projections:pm2.5_recalculation_2023.png?|}}
  
-{{:general:projections:pm2.5_recalculation.png?|}}