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general:projections:start [2021/04/23 08:26] – braunsgeneral:projections:start [2024/11/06 13:54] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 ====== Chapter 9 - Projections ======  ====== Chapter 9 - Projections ====== 
  
-In May 2019, Germany published its first National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2019|NAPCP]]) under the revised NEC directive (EU) 2016/2284. It covers all up-to-date information on projected air pollutant emissions and mitigation approaches in detail. In addition, Germany also published the same results under the CLRTAP using the Annex IV projected emissions templates, presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) scenarios as defined in the NAPCP 2019 mentioned to above. According to Article 8 (6) of the EU Directive 2016/2284, these projections must be updated and reported every two years. Emission projections under the CLRTAP are therefore fully aligned with the reporting presented in the context of the NEC directive.+In May 2019, Germany published its first National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2019|NAPCP]]) under the revised NEC directive (EU) 2016/2284. According to Article 6 (3) of the Directive, the NAPCP must be reported in an updated version at least every four years. In this context, Germany published a draft NAPCP on June 7<sup>th</sup>, 2023. It covers all up-to-date information on projected air pollutant emissions and mitigation approaches in detail. Corresponding emission projections were reported to the central data repository of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on May 2<sup>nd</sup>, 2023 under the [[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/un/clrtap/projected/envzfeofq/|CLRTAP]] and the [[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/projected/envzfeinq/|NEC directive]], presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) preliminary scenarios as defined in the draft NAPCP 2023 mentioned above. According to Article 8 (6) of the EU Directive 2016/2284, these projections must be updated and reported every two years. Emission projections under the CLRTAP are therefore fully aligned with the reporting presented in the context of the NEC directive.
  
-Based on the emissions inventory submission 2020 these results can be summarized as follows:+As negotiations within the German government on the final NAPCP were still ongoing at the end of 2023, the IIR 2023 presents the projection details of the draft NAPCP from June 2023 consistent with the reported emission projections in 2023. 
 + 
 +Based on the emissions inventory submission 2022 these results can be summarized as follows:
 ^ kt                   ^  NO<sub>X</sub> ^ SO<sub>2</sub> ^ NMVOC ^ NH<sub>3</sub> ^ PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^ ^ kt                   ^  NO<sub>X</sub> ^ SO<sub>2</sub> ^ NMVOC ^ NH<sub>3</sub> ^ PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^
-| National Total 2005            | 1522 | 477 | 1183 | 641 | 141 | +| National Total 2005            | 1515 | 473 | 1180 | 603 | 135 | 
-| National Total 2010            | 1358 | 405 | 1057 | 641 | 123 | +| National Total 2010            | 1330 | 403 | 1055 | 614 | 119 | 
-| National Total 2015             | 1084 | 289 | 816  | 636 | 97  |+| National Total 2015           | 1219 | 334 | 832 | 639 | 102 | 
 +| National Total 2020            | 871 | 233 | 737  | 537 | 81  |
 |          |||||| |          ||||||
 | Reduction Commitment 2020 [%]  | -39 | -21 | -13 | -5 | -26 | | Reduction Commitment 2020 [%]  | -39 | -21 | -13 | -5 | -26 |
-| Reduction Commitment 2020 [kt] | 928 | 377 | 1029 | 608 | 104 | +| Reduction Reported 2020 [%]  | -43 | -51 | -38 | -11 | -40 | 
-| Projected Emissions 2020 WM [%]   | 36 | 39 | 34 | 11 | 30 | +| NEC-Compliance     | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
-| Projected Emissions 2020 WAM [%]  | 36 | 39 | 34 | 11 | 30 |+
 |            |||||| |            ||||||
 | Reduction Commitment 2030 [%]  | -65 | -58 | -28 | -29 | -43 | | Reduction Commitment 2030 [%]  | -65 | -58 | -28 | -29 | -43 |
-| Reduction Commitment 2030 [kt] | 533 | 200 | 852 | 455 | 80 | +| Reduction Commitment 2030 [kt] | 530 | 199 | 849 | 428 | 77 | 
-| Projected Emissions 2030 WM [%]    | 62 | 60 | 32 | 20 | 43 | +| Projected Emissions 2030 WM [%]    | -63 | -58 | -36 | -30 | -42 | 
-| Projected Emissions 2030 WAM [%]    | 62 | 62 | 32 | 29 | 43 | +| NEC-Compliance WM     | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | 
-|<sup>Notes: This table does neither include NO<sub>X</sub> and NMVOC emissions from agriculture (NFR 3B and 3D) nor future adjustments. Projected emissions and historic data are based on submission 2020.</sup>|||||| +| Projected Emissions 2030 WAM [%]    | -66 | -70 | -36 | -31 | -44 | 
- +| NEC-Compliance WAM     | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 
- +|<sup>Notes: This table does not include NO<sub>X</sub> and NMVOC emissions from agriculture (NFR 3B and 3D) as they are excluded for compliance checking according to Article 4 (3) of the NEC directive. Projected emissions and historic data are based on submission 2022. All values have been rounded to integer numbers. The calculation for determining the reduction commitment took place with the exact values in 2005. The rounding can lead to slight deviations.</sup>||||||
-More details are shown in following subsections: +
- +
-**[[Introduction|Introduction]]** +
- +
- +
-**[[Calculation Documentation|Calculation Documentation]]** +
- +
- +
-**[[Adjustments|Adjustments]]** +
  
-**[[Reculculations|Reculculations]]** 
  
 ===== Results ===== ===== Results =====
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 Modelling different scenarios in our database, we finally calculated the following numbers for Germany's emissions in 2030: Modelling different scenarios in our database, we finally calculated the following numbers for Germany's emissions in 2030:
 | ^   NO<sub>X</sub> ^    SO<sub>2</sub>    ^  NMVOC ^  NH<sub>3</sub> ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^ | ^   NO<sub>X</sub> ^    SO<sub>2</sub>    ^  NMVOC ^  NH<sub>3</sub> ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^
-^ Reduction commitment [% reduction vs. 2005] |  -65 |   -58    |   -28 |  -29 |   -43  |  +^ With measures [kt] |  559.3 |   198.1   |   758.7 |  420.8  |   78.6  |  
-^ With measures [kt] |  583.3 |   191.7   |   805.3 |  512.1  |   81.0  |  +| Accelerated phase-out of coal-fired power generation |  -19.6   |   -55.3     |   |  -0.1   |   -1.2   |   
-^ With measures [% reduction vs. 2005] |  -62   |   -60     |   -32 |  -20   |   -43   |   +| Amendment of 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV |  -2.2 |       |   |   |     |   
-|       |||||| +| Amendment of the Building Energy Act (GEG) |  7.1 |   0.7    |   4.5 |   |   1.2   |   
-^ With additional measures [kt] |  576.9 |   180.3  |   804.1    | 454.0   |   80.8 | +| Tightening of the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189 |  |        |    |  |   -1.4  |   
-^ With additional measures [% reduction vs. 2005] |  -62   |   -62     |    -32  |  -29   |   -43   | +| Agriculture package |  |        |    |  -3.4 |      |   
-^ Amendment of 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV |  -4.86   |      |  |  |    | +| Road Transport package |  -28.6   |   -0.2     |   -10.3 |  -2.6   |   -1.2   |   
-^ Agriculture package |  -9.4    |     |   -3.38 | -57.98 |  -0.24 | +| [Optional] Amendment of 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV |  -3.2   |       |   |   |     |   
-^ Promotion of public transport, cycling and walking |  -1.46 |     |   -1.17 |  -0.10  |  -0.01  | +^ With additional measures [kt] |  512.8 |   143.3   |   752.9    |  414.7 |   76.0 |
-^ Low-sulphur fuels in industry | |  -11.37  |         | |   |+
  
  
-With these numbers, Germany will meet its reduction commitments for almost all pollutants in 2030 at least in the WAM scenario. Only NO<sub>X</sub> does not achieve the reduction commitments.+With these numbers, Germany will meet its reduction commitments for all pollutants in 2030 at least in the WAM scenario. 
  
-The following figures show the developments for each pollutant in the WM and WAM scenarios. In addition, the reduction commitments for 2020 to 2029 and from 2030 as well as the linear reduction path are shown. Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.+The following figures show the developments for each pollutant in the WM and WAM scenarios. In addition, the reduction commitments for 2020 to 2029 and from 2030 onwards as well as the indicative linear reduction path are shown. Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.
  
-[{{:general:projections:nox_results.png|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]+[{{:general:projections:nox_results_2023.png|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]
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-[{{:general:projections:so2_results.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]+[{{:general:projections:sox_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]
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-[{{:general:projections:nmvoc_results.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]+[{{:general:projections:nmvoc_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]
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-[{{:general:projections:nh3_results.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]+[{{:general:projections:nh3_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]
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-[{{:general:projections:pm2.5_results.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2020, 2025 and 2030. A linear reduction in the years between can not be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]+[{{:general:projections:pm2.5_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}]
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