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general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2024/03/07 08:18] – [NH3] Update to Submission 2024 hausmanngeneral:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2024/11/06 14:54] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 ===== Introduction ===== ===== Introduction =====
  
-{{ general:uncertainty_evaluation:breaking_ice.png?nolink}}+{{ general:uncertainty_evaluation:breaking_ice.png?nolink 300}}
  
 Uncertainties are a key part of any emission inventory effort. Recording and assessing the inevitable errors made in estimating emissions allows for the inventory team to direct their attention as well as for the public and the scientific community to work with the results presented. Germany employs the statistical approaches as defined in the EMEP/EEA Guidebook to evaluate its inventory's uncertainties. The Guidebook offers two methods for the combination of individual source uncertainties to the level of categories and national totals, namely error propagation (EP, tier 1) and Monte Carlo simulation (MC, tier 2). Although Germany presents all results from both approaches here, the MC values are generally considered to represent the actual confidence interval more precisely. Uncertainties are a key part of any emission inventory effort. Recording and assessing the inevitable errors made in estimating emissions allows for the inventory team to direct their attention as well as for the public and the scientific community to work with the results presented. Germany employs the statistical approaches as defined in the EMEP/EEA Guidebook to evaluate its inventory's uncertainties. The Guidebook offers two methods for the combination of individual source uncertainties to the level of categories and national totals, namely error propagation (EP, tier 1) and Monte Carlo simulation (MC, tier 2). Although Germany presents all results from both approaches here, the MC values are generally considered to represent the actual confidence interval more precisely.
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:pm25.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:pm25.png?nolink}}
  
-PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are associated with high uncertainties. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -18.4% to +21.4% in 2021, which amounts to about 33kt of PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Two sectors contribute the bulk of these errors: [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] and [[sector:ippu:bulk_products:handling_of_bulk_products:start|2.L - Other production, consumption, storage, transportation or handling of bulk products]]. Germany is also one of the few countries that reports abrasion under [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:railways:start|1.A.3.c - Transport: Railways]], adding noticeably to both emission values and uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_pm2.5.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details.+PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are associated with high uncertainties. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -18.3% to +21.4% in 2022, which amounts to about 35kt of PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Three sectors contribute the bulk of these errors: [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]], [[sector:ippu:bulk_products:handling_of_bulk_products:start|2.L - Other production, consumption, storage, transportation or handling of bulk products]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.3 - Farm-level Agricultural Operations]]. Germany is also one of the few countries that reports abrasion under [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:railways:start|1.A.3.c - Transport: Railways]], adding noticeably to both emission values and uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_pm2.5.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details.
  
 ===== Other pollutants ===== ===== Other pollutants =====
  
 There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow. There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow.