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appendices:appendix2.2-road-transport [2021/04/14 20:43] – [Table] kotzullaappendices:appendix2.2-road-transport [2023/03/14 11:48] (current) – [Mileage] kotzulla
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 ==== Cross-check with Energy Balance==== ==== Cross-check with Energy Balance====
  
-The Energy Balance is also used to model transport-quantity structures in TREMOD. For example, the German Economic Institute (DIW) carries out a fuel-consumption calculation in order to derive total mileage travelled (DIW, 2002). Some of the results of the calculation, for automobile transports, are entered into TREMOD. The DIW uses a fuel-consumption calculation in order to determine total domestic mileage; TREMOD uses some other sources and assumptions to estimate total domestic mileage – especially for goods transports (cf. the detailed description in (Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002)) [((bibcite 1))]). This estimate also takes the basic figures of the Energy Balance into account. +The Energy Balance is also used to model transport-quantity structures in TREMOD. For example, the German Economic Institute (DIW) carries out a fuel-consumption calculation in order to derive total mileage travelled (DIW, 2002). Some of the results of the calculation, for automobile transports, are entered into TREMOD. The DIW uses a fuel-consumption calculation in order to determine total domestic mileage; TREMOD uses some other sources and assumptions to estimate total domestic mileage – especially for goods transports (cf. the detailed description in (Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002)) [(KNOERR2002)]. This estimate also takes the basic figures of the Energy Balance into account. 
  
 On the other hand, due to the many dependencies and uncertainties in the model, and to the basic data that must be taken into account, no feasible means is available for comparing mileage and energy consumption, for each year and each vehicle layer, in such a manner that the results yield the Energy Balance sum and the mileage and average energy consumption figures in the time series are plausible. For this reason, the TREMOD results for the fuel consumption are corrected, at the end of the process, in such a manner that the total for each reference year corresponds to the relevant figure in the Energy Balance. On the other hand, due to the many dependencies and uncertainties in the model, and to the basic data that must be taken into account, no feasible means is available for comparing mileage and energy consumption, for each year and each vehicle layer, in such a manner that the results yield the Energy Balance sum and the mileage and average energy consumption figures in the time series are plausible. For this reason, the TREMOD results for the fuel consumption are corrected, at the end of the process, in such a manner that the total for each reference year corresponds to the relevant figure in the Energy Balance.
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 Since TREMOD calculates fuel consumption in tonnes, the results first have to be converted into terajoule [TJ]. For this purpose the net calorific values of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) are used. Since TREMOD calculates fuel consumption in tonnes, the results first have to be converted into terajoule [TJ]. For this purpose the net calorific values of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) are used.
  
-__Table 1: Net calorific values for gasoline and diesel oil__ +__Table 1: Net calorific values for gasoline and diesel oil, in kJ/kg__ 
-|             ^  **Gasoline**  ^  **Diesel Oil**  ^ +|            ^  Gasoline  ^  Diesel  ^ 
-^   1990-1992 |  43.543 MJ/kg  |  42.704 MJ/kg    | +^ 1990-2000  |  43,543    |  42,959  | 
-^  as of 1993 |  43.543 MJ/kg  |  42.960 MJ/kg    |+^ 2005       |  43,543    |  42,959  | 
 +^ 2006       |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2007       |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2008       |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2009       |  43,542    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2010       |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2011       |  43,544    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2012       |  43,543    |  42,961  | 
 +^ 2013       |  43,543    |  42,960  | 
 +^ 2014       |  43,542    |  42,649  | 
 +^ 2015       |  42,281    |  42,694  | 
 +^ 2016       |  42,281    |  42,648  | 
 +^ 2017       |  42,281    |  42,648  | 
 +^ 2018       |  42,281    |  42,648  | 
 +^ 2019       |  42,281    |  42,648  | 
 +^ 2020       |  42,281    |  42,648  | 
 +^ 2021       |  42,281    |  42,648  |
 Source: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen) Source: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen)
  
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 __Table 2: Correction factors for adjustment of TREMOD estimates to the National Energy Balance__ __Table 2: Correction factors for adjustment of TREMOD estimates to the National Energy Balance__
 +|        ^  Gasoline fuels  ^ Diesel fuels              ||
 +^        |  PC, LDV, M2W    |  PC, LDV      |  HDV, Bus  |
 +^  1990  |  1.086           |  1.086        |  0.983     |
 +^  1995  |  1.046           |  1.046        |  0.931     |
 +^  2000  |  0.995           |  0.995        |  0.956     |
 +^  2005  |  0.938           |  0.938        |  0.784     |
 +^  2006  |  0.914           |  0.914        |  0.836     |
 +^  2007  |  0.899           |  0.899        |  0.800     |
 +^  2008  |  0.896           |  0.896        |  0.802     |
 +^  2009  |  0.885           |  0.885        |  0.845     |
 +^  2010  |  0.871           |  0.871        |  0.894     |
 +^  2011  |  0.879           |  0.879        |  0.875     |
 +^  2012  |  0.858           |  0.858        |  0.935     |
 +^  2013  |  0.879           |  0.879        |  0.943     |
 +^  2014  |  0.894           |  0.894        |  0.883     |
 +^  2015  |  0.890           |  0.890        |  0.898     |
 +^  2016  |  0.900           |  0.900        |  0.889     |
 +^  2017  |  0.912           |  0.912        |  0.877     |
 +^  2018  |  0.877           |  0.877        |  0.843     |
 +^  2019  |  0.873           |  0.873        |  0.869     |
 +^  2020  |  0.901           |  0.901        |  0.890     |
 +^  2021  |  0.921           |  0.921        |  0.848     |
  
-Source: TREMOD (Knörr, W. et al. (2020a)) [(KNOERR2020a)]+Source: TREMOD (Knörr, W. et al. (2022a)) [(KNOERR2022a)]
  
 === Allocation of biofuels, petroleum and LPG to the structural elements === === Allocation of biofuels, petroleum and LPG to the structural elements ===
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 Mileage data were updated on the basis of the "2002 mileage survey" ("Fahrleistungserhebung 2002"; Institute of Applied Transport and Tourism Research (IVT, 2004 [(IVT2004)]), the "2005 road-transport census" "Straßenverkehrszählungen 2005"; Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt), 2007 [(BAST2007)]) and data on growth of transports on federal highways (BASt, 2008). Mileage data were updated on the basis of the "2002 mileage survey" ("Fahrleistungserhebung 2002"; Institute of Applied Transport and Tourism Research (IVT, 2004 [(IVT2004)]), the "2005 road-transport census" "Straßenverkehrszählungen 2005"; Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt), 2007 [(BAST2007)]) and data on growth of transports on federal highways (BASt, 2008).
 +
  
 ==== Shifting of fuel purchases to other countries ==== ==== Shifting of fuel purchases to other countries ====
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 Exception: Exception:
-* The SO,,2,, emission factor for petroleum is set to 24 kg/TJ for those years in which diesel fuel has a higher value. In all other years, the lower value for diesel fuel is used. +* The SO<sub>2</sub> emission factor for petroleum is set to 24 kg/TJ for those years in which diesel fuel has a higher value. In all other years, the lower value for diesel fuel is used. 
  
-[(KNOERR2020> Knörr et al. (2002): Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002): Aktualisierung des "Daten- und Rechenmodells": Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1980-2020 : Endbericht / Wolfram Knörr (Projektleiter): Heidelberg [u.a.] 2002. )] +[(KNOERR2002> Knörr et al. (2002): Knörr, W., Höpfner, U., & Lambrecht, U. (2002): Aktualisierung des "Daten- und Rechenmodells": Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1980-2020 : Endbericht / Wolfram Knörr (Projektleiter): Heidelberg [u.a.] 2002. )] 
-[(KNOERR2020a> Knörr et al. (2020a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2020. )].+[(KNOERR2022a> Knörr et al. (2022a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2022. )]
 [(IVT2004> IVT, 2004: Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und tourismusforschung e.V.: Fahrleistungserhebung 2002, Teil: Begleitung und Auswertung. Untersuchung im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, Projektnummer FE 82.201/2001. Heilbronn/Mannheim. )] [(IVT2004> IVT, 2004: Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und tourismusforschung e.V.: Fahrleistungserhebung 2002, Teil: Begleitung und Auswertung. Untersuchung im Auftrag der Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, Projektnummer FE 82.201/2001. Heilbronn/Mannheim. )]
 [(BAST2007> BASt, 2007: Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt): Unterreihe Verkehrstechnik; V 164: "Straßenverkehrszählung 2005: Ergebnisse", Thorsten Kathmann, Hartmut Ziegler, Bernd Thomas; 62 Seiten; Bergisch Gladbach, 2007. )] [(BAST2007> BASt, 2007: Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt): Unterreihe Verkehrstechnik; V 164: "Straßenverkehrszählung 2005: Ergebnisse", Thorsten Kathmann, Hartmut Ziegler, Bernd Thomas; 62 Seiten; Bergisch Gladbach, 2007. )]