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-====== Chapter 9 - Projections ======  +====== Reported Projections 2025 - Overview ======
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 In May 2019, Germany published its first National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2019|NAPCP 2019]]) under the revised NEC directive (EU) 2016/2284. According to Article 6 (3) of the Directive, the NAPCP must be reported in an updated version at least every four years. In this context, Germany published a draft NAPCP on June 7<sup>th</sup>, 2023. Corresponding emission projections were reported to the central data repository of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on May 2<sup>nd</sup>, 2023 under the CLRTAP and the NEC directive, presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) preliminary scenarios as defined in the draft NAPCP 2023 mentioned above. The second German National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2023|NAPCP 2023]]) was passed by the federal government and published in May 2024, consistent with the previously reported projections. According to Article 8 (6) of the EU Directive 2016/2284, these projections must be updated and reported every two years. Emission projections under the CLRTAP are fully aligned with the reporting presented in the context of the NEC directive. In May 2019, Germany published its first National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2019|NAPCP 2019]]) under the revised NEC directive (EU) 2016/2284. According to Article 6 (3) of the Directive, the NAPCP must be reported in an updated version at least every four years. In this context, Germany published a draft NAPCP on June 7<sup>th</sup>, 2023. Corresponding emission projections were reported to the central data repository of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on May 2<sup>nd</sup>, 2023 under the CLRTAP and the NEC directive, presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) preliminary scenarios as defined in the draft NAPCP 2023 mentioned above. The second German National Air Pollution Control Programme ([[https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/nlrp2023|NAPCP 2023]]) was passed by the federal government and published in May 2024, consistent with the previously reported projections. According to Article 8 (6) of the EU Directive 2016/2284, these projections must be updated and reported every two years. Emission projections under the CLRTAP are fully aligned with the reporting presented in the context of the NEC directive.
  
-As negotiations within the German government on the final NAPCP were still ongoing at the end of 2023, the IIR 2023 presents the projection details of the draft NAPCP from June 2023 consistent with the reported emission projections in 2023. Updated emission projections were reported on March 14<sup>th</sup>, 2025 under the ([[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/un/clrtap/projected/envz9qq0w/|CLRTAP]]) and the ([[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/projected/envz9qehq/|NEC directive]]), presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) scenarios. The IIR 2025 projections chapter describes all assumptions and methodology of those emission projections. Current projections are based on emission inventory submission 2024. In addition, because of relevant recalculations in ammonia emissions of the agricultural sector (NFR 3) within emission inventory submission 2025 (see Chapter 8.1 - Recalculations), a second dataset was submitted containing only ammonia emission projections in the "with measures" (WM) scenario based on emission inventory submission 2025 under otherwise identical assumptions. +Updated emission projections were reported on March 14<sup>th</sup>, 2025 under the ([[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/un/clrtap/projected/envz9qq0w/|CLRTAP]]) and the ([[https://cdr.eionet.europa.eu/de/eu/nec_revised/projected/envz9qehq/|NEC directive]]), presenting both the "with measures" (WM) and the "with additional measures" (WAM) scenarios. The IIR 2025 projections chapter describes all assumptions and methodology of those emission projections. 
  
-Based on the emissions inventory submission 2024 these results can be summarized as follows: +Projections reported in 2025 are based on emission inventory submission 2024 (see Table 1). In addition, because of relevant recalculations in ammonia emissions of the agricultural sector (NFR 3) within emission inventory submission 2025 (see [[General:Recalculations:ammonia| Chapter 8.1 - Recalculations]]), a second dataset was submitted containing only ammonia emission projections in the “with measures” (WM) scenario based on emission inventory submission 2025 under otherwise identical assumptions (see Table 2). 
-^ kt                   ^   NO<sub>X</sub> ^    SO<sub>2</sub> ^      NMVOC ^ NH<sub>3</sub> ^ PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^ +
-| National Total 2005             | 1478 | 472 | 1167 | 627 | 133 | +
-| National Total 2022             | 841 | 255 | 747 | 512 | 84 | +
-|          |||||| +
-| Reduction Commitment 2020 [%]   | -39 | -21 | -13 | -5 | -26 | +
-| Reduction Reported 2022 [%]   | -43 | -46 | -36 | -18 | -37 | +
-| NEC-Compliance           | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | +
-|            |||||| +
-| Reduction Commitment 2030 [%]   | -65 | -58 | -28 | -29 | -43 | +
-| Reduction Commitment 2030 [kt]  | 517 | 198 | 840 | 445 | 76 | +
-| Projected Emissions 2030 WM [%] | -66 | -71 | -35 | -31 | -43 | +
-| NEC-Compliance WM   | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | +
-| Projected Emissions 2030 WAM [%]| -66 | -71 | -35 | -31 | -44 | +
-| NEC-Compliance WAM   | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | +
-|<sup>Notes: This table does not include NO<sub>X</sub> and NMVOC emissions from agriculture (NFR 3.B and 3.D) as they are excluded for compliance checking according to Article 4 (3) of the NEC directive. Projected emissions and historic data are based on submission 2024. All values have been rounded to integer numbers. The calculation for determining the reduction commitment took place with the exact values in 2005. The rounding can lead to slight deviations.</sup>||||||+
  
 +Based on the NEC & CLRTAP Inventory Submission 2024, the results can be summarized as follows:
  
-===== Results =====+__Table 1: Overview results of projections 2025 (based on NEC & CLRTAP Inventory Submission 2024)__ 
 +^                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ^  NO<sub>x</sub>  ^  SO<sub>2</sub>  ^  NMVOC     ^  NH<sub>3</sub>  ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub>  ^ 
 +| **NATIONAL TOTAL** 2005 (Submission 2024)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |  1,478 kt        |  472 kt          |  1,167 kt  |  627 kt          |  133 kt            | 
 +| **NATIONAL TOTAL** 2022 (Submission 2024)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |  841 kt          |  255 kt          |  747 kt    |  512 kt          |  84 kt             | 
 +|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |                  |                  |            |                  |                    | 
 +| Reduction Commitment 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |  -39 %           |  -21 %           |  -13 %     |  -5 %            |  -26 %             | 
 +| Reduction Reported 2022                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |  -43 %           |  -46 %           |  -36 %     |  -18 %           |  -37 %             | 
 +^ NEC-Compliance                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ^  Yes             ^  Yes             ^  Yes       ^  Yes             ^  Yes               ^ 
 +|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |                  |                  |            |                  |                    | 
 +| Reduction Commitment 2030                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |  -65 %           |  -58 %           |  -28 %     |  -29 %           |  -43 %             | 
 +| Reduction Commitment 2030                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |  517 kt          |  198 kt          |  840 kt    |  445 kt          |  76 kt             | 
 +| Projected Emissions 2030 WM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            |  -66 %           |  -71 %           |  -35 %     |  -31 %           |  -43 %             | 
 +^ NEC-Compliance WM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ^  Yes             ^  Yes             ^  Yes       ^  Yes             ^  Yes               ^ 
 +| Projected Emissions 2030 WAM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           |  -66 %           |  -71 %           |  -35 %     |  -31 %           |  -44 %             | 
 +^ NEC-Compliance WAM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ^  Yes             ^  Yes             ^  Yes       ^  Yes             ^  Yes               ^ 
 +| <sup>Notes: This table does not include NO<sub>X</sub> and NMVOC emissions from agriculture (NFR 3.B and 3.D) as they are excluded for compliance checking according to Article 4 (3) of the NEC directive. Projected emissions and historic data are based on submission 2024. All values have been rounded to integer numbers. The calculation for determining the reduction commitment took place with the exact values in 2005. The rounding can lead to slight deviations.</sup>                                                                                        |||||| 
 +\\
  
-Modelling different scenarios in our database, we finally calculated the following numbers for Germany's emissions in 2030: +Based on the NEC & CLRTAP Inventory Submission 2025, the recalculated results for ammonia can be summarized as follows:
-| ^   NO<sub>X</sub> ^    SO<sub>2</sub>    ^  NMVOC ^  NH<sub>3</sub> ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub> ^ +
-^ With measures [kt] |  559.3 |   198.1  |   758.7 |  420.8 |   78.6 |  +
-| Accelerated phase-out of coal-fired power generation |  -19.6 |   -55.3    |    |  -0.1 |   -1.2  |   +
-| Amendment of 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV |  -2.2 |        |    |  |      |   +
-| Amendment of the Building Energy Act (GEG) |  7.1 |   0.7    |   4.5 |  |   1.2  |   +
-| Tightening of the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189 |  |        |    |  |   -1.4  |   +
-| Agriculture package |  |        |    |  -3.4 |      |   +
-| Road Transport package |  -28.6 |   -0.2    |   -10.3 |  -2.6 |   -1.2  |   +
-| [Optional] Amendment of 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV |  -3.2 |        |    |  |      |   +
-^ With additional measures [kt] |  512.8 |   143.3  |   752.9    |  414.7 |   76.0 |+
  
 +__Table 2: Recalculated projections 2025 for NH<sub>3</sub> (ammonia), (based on NEC & CLRTAP Inventory Submission 2025)__
 +^                                            ^  NH<sub>3</sub>  ^
 +| **NATIONAL TOTAL** 2005 (Submission 2025)  |  714 kt  |
 +| **NATIONAL TOTAL** 2023 (Submission 2025)  |  569 kt  |
 +|                                            |          |
 +| Reduction Commitment 2020                  |  -5%     |
 +| Reduction Reported 2023                    |  -20%    |
 +^ NEC-Compliance                             ^  Yes     ^
 +|                                            |          |
 +| Reduction Commitment 2030                  |  -29%    |
 +| Reduction Commitment 2030                  |  507 kt  |
 +| Projected Emissions 2030 WM                |  -33%    |
 +^ NEC-Compliance WM                          ^  Yes     ^
  
-With these numbers, Germany will meet its reduction commitments for all pollutants in 2030 at least in the WAM scenario.  
- 
-The following figures show the developments for each pollutant in the WM and WAM scenarios. In addition, the reduction commitments for 2020 to 2029 and from 2030 onwards as well as the indicative linear reduction path are shown. Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons. 
- 
-[{{:general:projections:nox_results_2023.png|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}] 
-\\ 
-[{{:general:projections:sox_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}] 
-\\ 
-[{{:general:projections:nmvoc_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}] 
-\\ 
-[{{:general:projections:nh3_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}] 
-\\ 
-[{{:general:projections:pm2.5_results_2023.png?|Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.}}] 
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