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general:projections:wm-scenario [2021/04/23 08:28] – created braunsgeneral:projections:wm-scenario [2024/11/06 15:10] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 The German Coal Phase-Out Law (“Kohleausstiegsgesetz”) from August 2020 stipulates to gradually phase out coal power plants burning lignite until 31 December 2038. The activity rates and emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>X</sub> are therefore reassessed. The German Coal Phase-Out Law (“Kohleausstiegsgesetz”) from August 2020 stipulates to gradually phase out coal power plants burning lignite until 31 December 2038. The activity rates and emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>X</sub> are therefore reassessed.
  
-The starting point for the evaluation of the activity rates as a result of the phase-out is the current total RTI. According to the official phase-out path of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy((https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/S-T/stilllegungspfad-braunkohle.html)) and assuming that from 2039 onwards (after the shutdown of the last blocks) no more RTI will be provided, the RTI per district counted back for the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 are shown in Table 4. As a result, the reduction in the observed periods from 2020 to 2035 can be calculated in absolute and relative values for each district.+The starting point for the evaluation of the activity rates as a result of the phase-out is the current total RTI. According to the official phase-out path of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy((https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/S-T/stilllegungspfad-braunkohle.html)) and assuming that from 2039 onwards (after the shutdown of the last blocks) no more RTI will be provided, the RTI per district counted back for the years 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 are shown in Table 4. As a result, the reduction in the observed periods from 2020 to 2035 can be calculated in absolute and relative values for each district.
  
 __Table 4: Decommissioning path of the districts according to RTI in the years 2018 to 2039__  __Table 4: Decommissioning path of the districts according to RTI in the years 2018 to 2039__ 
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    - Due to the new Fertilizing Ordinance (DÜV 2020), liquid manure (except for leachate) and poultry manure applied to uncultivated arable land must be incorporated within 1 hour. In addition, a decline in the prevalence of the "broad-cast" technology was projected (effect: approximately -15 kt NH<sub>3</sub> emissions).    - Due to the new Fertilizing Ordinance (DÜV 2020), liquid manure (except for leachate) and poultry manure applied to uncultivated arable land must be incorporated within 1 hour. In addition, a decline in the prevalence of the "broad-cast" technology was projected (effect: approximately -15 kt NH<sub>3</sub> emissions).
    - There are also slight differences in the new baseline in the forecasted number of animals and animal performance. Additionally, there were changes in the emission models (see previous IIRs). This strongly interacts with the previous point, so that it is not possible to determine a more specific reduction effect of the new Fertilizing Ordinance. (Overall, the effects of 3. and 4. add up to approx. - 16 kt NH<sub>3</sub> emissions.)    - There are also slight differences in the new baseline in the forecasted number of animals and animal performance. Additionally, there were changes in the emission models (see previous IIRs). This strongly interacts with the previous point, so that it is not possible to determine a more specific reduction effect of the new Fertilizing Ordinance. (Overall, the effects of 3. and 4. add up to approx. - 16 kt NH<sub>3</sub> emissions.)
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 +Information on the underlying assumptions for projecting activity data is also provided in Thuenen-Report 84((Thuenen-Report 84 (2021): Calculations of gaseous and particulate emissions from German agriculture 1990 – 2019, Report on methods and data (RMD) Submission 2021, https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-report/Thuenen_Report_84.pdf)) on pages 74 to 75 in chapter 3.3.7 as well as in table 3.9. Although Thünen-Report 84 matches emission inventory submission 2021, the numbers in 2025 and 2030 are the same as used for the projections based on emission inventory submission 2020 described here. For all other data the activity data of the year 2018 are used with the exception of area and yield data for horticultural crops, strawberries, cereals for whole plant harvesting, yield data for grassland and the input data for liming. For these data the mean values for the years 2016 to 2018 were used.
  
 In total, according to the updated baseline, only 57 kt of NH<sub>3</sub> need to be additionally reduced by agriculture.   In total, according to the updated baseline, only 57 kt of NH<sub>3</sub> need to be additionally reduced by agriculture.  
  
 The results as presented at the top of the page have been widely circulated and discussed with sector experts from industry, science and public authorities. The results as presented at the top of the page have been widely circulated and discussed with sector experts from industry, science and public authorities.
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