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general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2021/02/19 09:48] – [PM2.5] Update to 2021 submission hausmanngeneral:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2021/02/19 09:50] – [NOx] Grammar fix hausmann
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nox.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nox.png?nolink}}
  
-Compared to other pollutants, NO<sub>x</sub> emission uncertainties are moderate. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -8.7% to +14% in 2019, which amounts to about 250kt of NO<sub>x</sub>. Interestingly, with NO<sub>x</sub>, the differences between the two approaches in uncertainty combination (EP and MC) are particularly visible. This is because of the highest contributing sector [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D - Agricultural Soils]], where emissions and uncertainties are high (> +300%) and, crucially, do not follow a normal distribution. Therefore only the MC simulation, which takes the log-normal distribution of these emissions into account, correctly reflects this source, while the EP yields unrealistic high uncertainties at more than 18%.+Compared to other pollutants, NO<sub>x</sub> emission uncertainties are moderate. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -8.7% to +14% in 2019, which amounts to about 250kt of NO<sub>x</sub>. Interestingly, with NO<sub>x</sub>, the differences between the two approaches in uncertainty combination (EP and MC) are particularly visible. This is because of the highest contributing sector [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D - Agricultural Soils]], where emissions and uncertainties are high (> +300%) and, crucially, do not follow a normal distribution. Therefore, only the MC simulation, which takes the log-normal distribution of these emissions into account, correctly reflects this source, while the EP yields unrealistic high uncertainties at more than 18%.
  
 Using the MC simulation, the top three contributors to the overall uncertainty are [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:emissions_from_fuel_combustion_in_road_vehicles:passenger_cars|1.A.3.b i - Road transport: Passenger cars]], [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.1 - Inorganic N-fertilizers]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.a - Animal manure applied to soils]]. [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.c - Other organic fertilisers applied to soils]] are other important sector in regard to NO<sub>x</sub> overall uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nox.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details. Using the MC simulation, the top three contributors to the overall uncertainty are [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:emissions_from_fuel_combustion_in_road_vehicles:passenger_cars|1.A.3.b i - Road transport: Passenger cars]], [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.1 - Inorganic N-fertilizers]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.a - Animal manure applied to soils]]. [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.c - Other organic fertilisers applied to soils]] are other important sector in regard to NO<sub>x</sub> overall uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nox.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details.