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general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2021/02/19 10:50] – [NOx] Grammar fix hausmanngeneral:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2024/11/06 16:10] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:so2.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:so2.png?nolink}}
  
-SO<sub>2</sub> emissions are mainly emitted by stationary combustion plants. Since those are heavily regulated and fuel sulphur contents are generally well know, uncertainties in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions are low. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -6.5% to +6.9% in 2019, which amounts to about 35kt of SO<sub>2</sub>. The top contributing sector to the SO<sub>2</sub> uncertainties is [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:energy_industries:public_electricity_and_heat_production|1.A.1.a - Public Electricity And Heat Production]], followed by a rather big margin by [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:energy_industries:petroleum_refining|1.A.1.b - Petroleum Refining]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]], as well as [[sector:ippu:metal_production:iron_and_steel_production:start|2.C.1 - Iron and Steel Production]]. All data is available in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_so2.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.+SO<sub>2</sub> emissions are mainly emitted by stationary combustion plants. Since those are heavily regulated and fuel sulphur contents are generally well known, uncertainties in SO<sub>2</sub> emissions are low. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -6.5% to +6.9% in 2019, which amounts to about 35kt of SO<sub>2</sub>. The top contributing sector to the SO<sub>2</sub> uncertainties is [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:energy_industries:public_electricity_and_heat_production|1.A.1.a - Public Electricity And Heat Production]], followed by a rather big margin by [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:energy_industries:petroleum_refining|1.A.1.b - Petroleum Refining]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]], as well as [[sector:ippu:metal_production:iron_and_steel_production:start|2.C.1 - Iron and Steel Production]]. All data is available in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_so2.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.
  
 ==== NMVOC ==== ==== NMVOC ====
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nmvoc.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nmvoc.png?nolink}}
  
-NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products is well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -15% to +29% in 2019, which amounts to about 500kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, the top five contributors are [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B - Manure Management - Dairy cattle]], [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.1.b Manure management - Non-dairy cattle]], [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:domestic_solvent_use:start|2.D.3.a - Domestic Solvent Use, including Fungicides]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] as well as [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:coating_applications:start|2.D.3.d - Coating Application]]. As with the other pollutants, details are to be found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nmvoc.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.+NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products are well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -15% to +29% in 2019, which amounts to about 500kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, the top five contributors are [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B - Manure Management - Dairy cattle]], [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.1.b Manure management - Non-dairy cattle]], [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:domestic_solvent_use:start|2.D.3.a - Domestic Solvent Use, including Fungicides]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] as well as [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:coating_applications:start|2.D.3.d - Coating Application]]. As with the other pollutants, details are to be found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nmvoc.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.
  
 ==== NH3 ==== ==== NH3 ====