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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:agriculture_and_forestry [2021/01/17 18:39] – created kotzulla | sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:agriculture_and_forestry [2021/05/27 07:39] – [Activity data] kotzulla | ||
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====== 1.A.4.c ii - Agriculture/ | ====== 1.A.4.c ii - Agriculture/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Short description ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Under sub-category //1.A.4.c ii - Agriculture/ | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ^ NFR Code ^ Source category | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii | Agriculture/ | ||
+ | | including mobile sources sub-categories | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii (a) | [[sector: | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii (b) | [[sector: | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Methodology===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | ====Activity data==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Sector-specific consumption data is included in the primary fuel-delivery data are available from NEB line 67: ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 1: Sources for primary fuel-delivery data__ | ||
+ | || through 1994 || **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 79: ' | ||
+ | || as of 1995 || **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 67: ' | ||
+ | |||
+ | Following the deduction of energy inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, 2020) [(BAFA2020)], | ||
+ | |||
+ | To provide more specific information on mobile sources in agriculture and forestry, the inventory compiler further devides NFR sector 1.A.4.c ii into **1.A.4.c ii (i) - NRMM in agriculture** in and **1.A.4.c ii (ii) - NRMM in forestry**. | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 2: Annual percentual contribution of NFR 1.A.4.c ii to the primary fuel delivery data provided in NEB line 67__ | ||
+ | | | **1990** | ||
+ | ^ Diesel fuels ||||||||||||||| | ||
+ | | **1.A.4.c ii (i)** | ||
+ | | **1.A.4.c ii (ii)** | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline fuels < | ||
+ | | **1.A.4.c ii (ii)** | ||
+ | source: own estimations based on Knörr et al. (2020b) [(KNOERR2020b)] | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 3: Annual mobile fuel consumption in agriculture and forestry, in terajoules__ | ||
+ | | | ||
+ | ^ Diesel oil | | ||
+ | ^ Biodiesel | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline | ||
+ | ^ Biogasoline | ||
+ | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.c ii** ^ 59.051 | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Emission factors ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | The emission factors applied here are of rather different quality: | ||
+ | |||
+ | Basically, for all **main pollutants**, | ||
+ | |||
+ | For Information on the country-specific implied emission factors applied to mobile machinery in agriculture and forestry, please refer to the respective sub-chapters linked above. | ||
+ | |||
+ | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Discussion of emission trends ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table: Outcome of Key Catgegory Analysis__ | ||
+ | | for: ^ NO< | ||
+ | | by: | Level | ||
+ | |||
+ | > **NFR 1.A.4.c ii** is key source for emissions of **NO< | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Unregulated pollutants (Ammonia, HMs, POPs, ...)==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | In contrast to the main pollutants, all heavy-metal and POP emissions are calculated based on default EF from [(EMEPEEA2019)]. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | Here, exemplary for cadmium, the extreme steps in emission estimates result from two effects: | ||
+ | |||
+ | (i) the annual amounts of gasoline fuels allocated to NFR 1.A.4.c ii depend on the amounts delivered to the military also covered in NEB line 67. (see superordinate chapter for further information). This approach results in strong declines in gasoline consumption after 2007 and 2011 followed by an increase after 2014. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 4: Development of gasoline consumption in NFR 1.A.4.c ii, in terajoules__ | ||
+ | | ^ 2010 ^ 2011 ^ 2012 ^ 2013 ^ 2014 ^ 2015 ^ 2016 ^ 2017 ^ 2018 ^ 2019 ^ | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline | ||
+ | ^ Biogasoline | ||
+ | |||
+ | (ii) All gasoline fuels allocated to NFR 1.A.4.c ii are used in 2-stroke-engines in forestry equipment. As the 2-stroke fuel also includes lubricant oil, the fuel's heavy metal content is significantly higher than that of 4-stroke gasoline (or diesel fuels). | ||
+ | (see Appendix 2.3 for more information on the reporting of HM emissions.) | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 5: Tier1 default emission factors applied to NRMM, in g/TJ__ | ||
+ | | ^ Pb ^ Cd ^ Hg ^ As ^ Cr ^ Cu ^ Ni ^ Se ^ Zn ^ | ||
+ | ^ Diesel oil | ||
+ | ^ Biodiesel< | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline fuels - 4-stroke | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline fuels - 2-stroke< | ||
+ | ^ LPG (1.A.4.a ii only) | NE ||||||||| | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | < | ||
+ | Hence, emission estimates reported for cadmium are significantly higher for years with higher gasoline use (in 2-stroke enignes). | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== Regulated pollutants ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | === Particulate matter & Black carbon=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | ||
+ | Nonetheless, | ||
+ | |||
+ | Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Recalculations ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Revisions in **activity data** result from revised percental shares with respect to NEB line 67 as well as the implementation of primary activity data from the now finalised NEB 2018. | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 6: Revised percental shares__ | ||
+ | | | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii (i) - diesel fuels |||||||||||||| | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii (ii) - diesel fuels | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | 1.A.4.c ii (ii) - gasoline fuels | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | |||
+ | __Table 7: Resulting revision of annual activity data, in terajoules__ | ||
+ | | | **1990** | ||
+ | | **Diesel fuels** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **Gasoline fuels** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | 3.093 | 3.004 | 3.325 | 3.043 | 1.603 | 1.462 | 409 | 400 | 430 | 1.732 | 1.644 | 1.655 | 1.819 | | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | 3.093 | 3.004 | 3.325 | 3.057 | 1.624 | 1.484 | 416 | 407 | 439 | 1.772 | 1.685 | 1.700 | 1.663 | | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **Over-all fuel consumption** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | |||
+ | As, in contrast, all **emission factors** remain unrevised compared to last year's susbmission, | ||
+ | |||
+ | <WRAP center round info 60%> | ||
+ | For pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following [[general: | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Uncertainties ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: " | ||
+ | |||
+ | Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Planned improvements ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Besides a **routine revision of TREMOD MM**, no specific improvements are planned. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== FAQs ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | **//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | ||
+ | |||
+ | The EF provided in [(EMEPEEA2019)] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' | ||
+ | |||
+ | [(AGEB2020> | ||
+ | [(BAFA2020> | ||
+ | URL: https:// | ||
+ | [(KNOERR2020b> | ||
+ | [(EMEPEEA2019> | ||
+ | [(RENTZ2008> | ||
+ | [(KNOERR2009> |