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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:residential [2021/01/26 17:58] – kotzulla | sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:residential [2021/04/15 07:46] – [Discussion of emission trends] kotzulla | ||
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===== Short description ===== | ===== Short description ===== | ||
- | Under sub-category //1.A.4.b ii - Residential: | + | Under sub-category //1.A.4.b ii - Residential: |
- | + | ||
- | ^ Method | + | |
- | | T1 | NS, M | CS, D | **L/T**: CO || | + | |
+ | ^ Method | ||
+ | | T1 | NS, M | CS, D | **L/T**: CO | | ||
[[f> | [[f> | ||
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==== Activity data ==== | ==== Activity data ==== | ||
- | Activity data are taken from annual fuel delieveries data provided in line 66: ' | + | Activity data are taken from annual fuel delieveries data provided in line 66: ' |
__Table 1: Sources for consumption data in 1.A.4.b ii__ | __Table 1: Sources for consumption data in 1.A.4.b ii__ | ||
- | ||~ Relevant years ||~ Data Source | + | ^ Relevant years ^ Data Source |
- | || through 1994|| **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 79: Households | + | | through 1994 | **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 79: Households |
- | || since 1995 || **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 66: Households | + | | since 1995 | **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 66: Households | |
Here, given the rare statistics on sold machinery, these activity data is of limited quality only (no annual but cascaded trend). | Here, given the rare statistics on sold machinery, these activity data is of limited quality only (no annual but cascaded trend). | ||
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__Table 2: Annual over-all fuel deliveries to residential mobile sources, in terajoules__ | __Table 2: Annual over-all fuel deliveries to residential mobile sources, in terajoules__ | ||
- | || ||= **1990** ||= **1995** ||= **2000** ||= **2005** ||= **2010** ||= **2011** ||= **2012** ||= **2013** ||= **2014** ||= **2015** ||= **2016** ||= **2017** ||= **2018** ||= | + | | |
- | || gasoline ||> | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | || biogasoline ||> | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | || **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** ||~ 2,177 ||~ 2,395 ||~ 2,395 ||~ 2,411 ||~ 3,510 ||~ 4,236 ||~ 4,172 ||~ 3,879 ||~ 4,118 ||~ 4,411 ||~ 4,412 ||~ 4,406 ||~ 4,253 ||> | + | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** |
- | source: AGEB, 2019 [((bibcite 1))] and TREMOD MM [((bibcite 2))] | + | source: AGEB, 2020 [(AGEB2020)] and TREMOD MM [(KNOERR2020b)] |
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_AD.png | + | |
- | : 1A4bii_AD_bio.png | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | These primary activity data can be distributed onto 2- and 4-stroke engines used in households via annual shares from Knörr et al. (2019b) [((bibcite 2))]. | + | These primary activity data can be distributed onto 2- and 4-stroke engines used in households via annual shares from Knörr et al. (2020b) [(KNOERR2020b)]. |
__Table 3: Annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ | __Table 3: Annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ | ||
- | || ||= **1990** ||> **1995** ||> **2000** ||> **2005** ||> **2010** ||> **2011** ||> **2012** ||> **2013** ||> **2014** ||> **2015** ||> **2016** ||> **2017** ||> **2018** ||> | + | | |
- | || 2-stroke ||> | + | ^ 2-Stroke |
- | || 4-stroke ||> | + | ^ 4-Stroke |
- | || **TOTAL** ||> | + | source: TREMOD MM [(KNOERR2020b)] |
- | source: TREMOD MM [((bibcite 2))] | + | |
__Table 4: Resulting estimates for fuel consumption in 2- and 4-stroke engines, in terajoules__ | __Table 4: Resulting estimates for fuel consumption in 2- and 4-stroke engines, in terajoules__ | ||
- | || ||= **1990** ||> **1995** ||> **2000** ||> **2005** ||> **2010** ||> **2011** ||> **2012** ||> **2013** ||> **2014** ||> **2015** ||> **2016** ||> **2017** ||> **2018** ||> | + | | |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||< | + | | **2-stroke engines** |
- | ||~ gasoline ||> 1,563 ||> 1,204 ||> 803 ||> 749 ||> 920 ||> 1,084 ||> 1,019 ||> 923 ||> 968 ||> 1,027 ||> 1,018 ||> | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | ||~ biogasoline ||> | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||< | + | | **4-stroke engines** |
- | ||~ gasoline ||> 614 ||> 1,191 ||> 1,592 ||> 1,646 ||> 2,459 ||> 2,985 ||> 2,976 ||> 2,797 ||> 2,978 ||> 3,201 ||> 3,210 ||> | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | ||~ biogasoline ||> | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||= ||> | + | | |
- | ||~ **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** ||~ 2,177 ||~ 2,395 ||~ 2,395 ||~ 2,411 ||~ 3,510 ||~ 4,236 ||~ 4,172 ||~ 3,879 ||~ 4,118 ||~ 4,411 ||~ 4,412 ||~ 4,406 ||~ 4,253 ||~ | + | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** ^ |
==== Emission factors ==== | ==== Emission factors ==== | ||
The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | ||
- | For all **main pollutants**, | + | For all **main pollutants**, |
Here, as no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for gasoline are applied to bioethanol, too. | Here, as no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for gasoline are applied to bioethanol, too. | ||
- | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [((bibcite 2))].) | + | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [(KNOERR2020b)].) |
- | __Table | + | __Table |
- | || ||= **1990** ||= **1995** ||= **2000** ||= **2005** ||= **2010** ||= **2011** ||= **2012** ||= **2013** ||= **2014** ||= **2015** ||= **2016** ||= **2017** ||= **2018** ||= | + | | | **1990** |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||< | + | | **4-stroke machinery** |
- | || NH,,3,, ^^1^^ ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||= | + | ^ NH<sub>3</ |
- | || NMVOC - exhaust ^^1,2^^ ||> 727 ||> 819 ||> 809 ||> 781 ||> | + | ^ NMVOC<sup>2</sup> | |
- | || NMVOC - evaporation ^^1,3^^ ||> 475 ||> 1,289 ||> 1,604 ||> 1,634 ||> 1,632 ||> 1,632 ||> 1,632 ||> | + | ^ NMVOC< |
- | || NO,,x,, ^^1^^ ||> 51.0 ||> 85.3 ||> 103 ||> 108 ||> | + | ^ NO<sub>x</ |
- | || SO,,x,, ^^1^^ ||> 10.1 ||> 8.3 ||> 3.2 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||> 0.37 ||= | + | ^ SO<sub>x</ |
- | || BC ^^2.5^^ ||> 0.31 ||> 0.27 ||> 0.24 ||> 0.23 ||> 0.24 ||> 0.25 ||> 0.25 ||> 0.25 ||> 0.26 ||> 0.26 ||> 0.26 ||> 0.26 ||> 0.26 ||= | + | ^ BC<sup>5</ |
- | || PM ^^2.4^^ ||> 6.29 ||> 5.46 ||> 4.85 ||> 4.63 ||> 4.87 ||> 4.94 ||> 5.00 ||> 5.06 ||> 5.11 ||> 5.15 ||> 5.19 ||> 5.22 ||> 5.24 ||= | + | ^ PM<sup>4</ |
- | || CO ^^1^^ ||> 39,998 ||> 32,154 ||> 28,346 ||> 27,235 ||> 28,035 ||> 28,317 ||> 28,584 ||> | + | ^ CO |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||< | + | | **2-stroke machinery** |
- | || NH,,3,, ^^1^^ ||> 0.07 ||> 0.07 ||> 0.07 ||> 0.07 ||> 0.07 ||> 0.08 ||> 0.08 ||> 0.08 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||> 0.09 ||= | + | ^ NH<sub>3</ |
- | || NMVOC - exhaust ^^1,2^^ ||> 5.962 ||> 5.692 ||> 5.537 ||> 5.439 ||> 5.372 ||> 4.894 ||> 3.898 ||> 3.270 ||> 3.115 ||> 2.969 ||> 2.835 ||> 2.716 ||> 2.613 ||= | + | ^ NMVOC<sup>2</ |
- | || NMVOC - evaporation ^^1,3^^ ||> 1,387 ||> 1,129 ||> 510 ||> 394 ||> 290 ||> 299 ||> 317 ||> | + | ^ NMVOC<sup>3</ |
- | || NO,,x,, ^^1^^ ||> 23.5 ||> 28.6 ||> 37.4 ||> | + | ^ NO<sub>x</sub> |
- | || SO,,x,, ^^1^^ ||> 10.1 ||> 8.3 ||> 3.2 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||> 0.4 ||= | + | ^ SO<sub>x</ |
- | || BC ^^2.4^^ ||> 5.14 ||> 4.79 ||> 4.76 ||> 4.76 ||> 4.80 ||> 4.95 ||> 5.25 ||> 5.45 ||> 5.53 ||> 5.60 ||> 5.67 ||> 5.73 ||> 5.78 ||= | + | ^ BC<sup>5</sup> |
- | || PM ^^2,5^^ ||> 103 ||> 95.8 ||> 95.3 ||> 95.2 ||> 96.1 ||> 99.0 ||> 105 ||> | + | ^ PM<sup>4</sup> |
- | || CO ^^1^^ ||> | + | ^ CO |
- | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||< | + | | **2- and 4-stroke machinery** |
- | || TSP^^6^^ | + | ^ TSP<sup>6</ |
- | || Pb^^6^^ ||> 1,471 ||> 516 ||> ||> ||> ||> ||> ||> ||> ||> | + | ^ Pb |
- | ^^1^^ due to lack of better information: | + | <sup>1</sup> due to lack of better information: |
- | ^^2^^ from fuel combustion | + | <sup>2</ |
- | ^^3^^ from gasoline evaporation | + | <sup>3</ |
- | ^^4^^ EF(PM,,2.5,,) also applied for PM,,10,, and TSP (assumption: | + | <sup>4</ |
- | ^^5^^ estimated via a f-BC 0.05 as provided in [((bibcite 3))], Chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road, note to Table 3-1: Tier 1 emission factors for off-road machinery | + | <sup>5</ |
- | ^^6^^ from leaded gasoline (until 1997) | + | <sup>6</ |
+ | |||
+ | <WRAP center round info 100%> | ||
+ | With respect to the emission factors applied for particulate matter, given the circumstances during test-bench measurements, | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [(EMEPEEA2019)]. | ||
> **NOTE:** For the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, no clear indication is available, whether or not condensables are included. | > **NOTE:** For the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, no clear indication is available, whether or not condensables are included. | ||
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For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | ||
- | [!-- | + | ===== Discussion of emission trends |
- | __Table 6: Tier1 emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions from fuel combustion and engine wear__ | + | |
- | ||= ||= **Pb** ||= **Cd** ||= **Hg** ||= **As** ||= **Cr** ||= **Cu** ||= **Ni** ||= **Se** ||= **Zn** ||= **B[a]P** ||= **B[b]F** ||= **B[k]F** ||= **I[...]p** ||= **PAH 1-4** ||= **PCDD/ | + | |
- | ||= ||||||||||||||||||= [g/ | + | |
- | ||~ Gasoline fuels - 4-stroke ||> | + | |
- | ||~ Gasoline fuels - 2-stroke ||> | + | |
- | ^^1^^ tier1 defaults from [((bibcite 3))], chapter 1.A.3.b i-iv - Road transport: exhaust emissions: tier1 value for diesel vehicles | + | |
- | ^^2^^ tier1 defaults from [((bibcite 3))], chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road | + | |
- | ^^3^^ sum of tier1 default values applied for B[a]P, B[b]F, B[k]F, and I[1, | + | |
- | ^^4^^ tier1 values derived from [((bibcite 4))] | + | |
- | In contrast, without country-specific information, | + | __Table: Outcome |
- | //(Note: Until submission 2017, the EMEP/EEA default EFs provided for NRMM were used in the German inventory. As these EFs do not differentiate between fuel combustion and lubricant co-incineration, | + | |
- | The tier1 EF apllied for **PCDD/F** has been derived from a study carried out by (Rentz et al., 2008) [((bibcite 5))] for the German Federal Environment Agency. | ||
- | For **HCB** and **PCBs**, no emission factors are available at the moment. | ||
- | --] | + | Given the limited quality of gasoline-deliveries data from NEB line 66, the following emission trends are of limited significance only. |
- | + __Discussion of emission trends__ | + | === Unregulated pollutants (Ammonia, HMs, POPs, ...) === |
- | + | ||
- | > **NFR 1.A.4.b ii** is no key source. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | > Given the limited quality of gasoline-deliveries data from NEB line 66, the following emission trends are of limited significance only. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | ++ Unregulated pollutants (NH,,3,,, HMs, POPs, ...) | + | |
For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_NH3.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
Here, as the emission factors for heavy metals (and POPs) are derived from tier1 default values, the emission' | Here, as the emission factors for heavy metals (and POPs) are derived from tier1 default values, the emission' | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | === Regulated pollutants |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_Cd.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | + | ||
- | ++ Regulated pollutants | + | |
- | + | ||
- | +++ Nitrogen oxides (NO,,x,,), Sulphur dioxide (SO,,2,,) | + | |
For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | ||
+ | However, especially for CO and NOx, trends are strongly influenced by the changes in annual fuel deliveries as provided in NEB line 66. | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_NOx.PNG | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_SOx.PNG | + | {{ : |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | +++ Particulate matter | + | == Particulate matter |
Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | ||
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Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | ||
- | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [((bibcite 3))], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM,,2.5,,. | + | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [(EMEPEEA2019)], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM<sub>2.5</ |
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_PM.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | + __Recalculations__ | ||
- | As all **emission factors** remain unchanged, recalculations occur only for 2017, resulting from the application of **activity data** from the now finalised National Energy Balance 2017. | + | ===== Recalculations ===== |
- | __Table 7: Revised total inland fuel deliveries 2017 for household-related consumption, | + | **Primary activity** data fro NEB line 66 remains unrevised. However, the percental shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines have been revised according to TREMOD MM. |
- | ||= ||||||= **gasoline** ||||||= **biogasoline** ||= | + | |
- | ||= ||= **total** ||= **2-stroke** ||= **4-stroke** ||= **total** ||= **2-stroke** ||= **4-stroke** ||= | + | |
- | ||~ Submission 2020 ||> | + | |
- | ||~ Submission 2019 ||> | + | |
- | ||~ absolute change ||> | + | |
- | ||~ relative change ||> | + | |
- | > For specific | + | __Table 5: Revised annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ |
+ | | | ||
+ | | **2-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **4-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
- | + __Uncertainties__ | + | __Table 5: Resulting revised annual fuel consumptions of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ |
+ | | | ||
+ | | **2-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **4-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2021 | ||
+ | ^ Submission 2020 | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
- | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023 (Knörr et al. (2009)) [((bibcite 5))]: " | + | |
+ | In addition, several annual country-specific **emission factors** have been revised accoring to changes within TREMOD but cannot be displayed here in a comprehendible way. | ||
+ | |||
+ | <WRAP center round info 60%> | ||
+ | For pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following [[general: | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Uncertainties ===== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023 (Knörr et al. (2009)) [(KNOERR2009)]: " | ||
Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | ||
- | + __Planned improvements__ | + | ===== Planned improvements ===== |
- | > Besides a **routine revision** of the **TREMOD MM** model, no specific improvements are planned | + | Besides a **routine revision** of the **TREMOD MM** model, no specific improvements are planned. |
- | + __FAQs__ | + | ===== FAQs ===== |
**//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | **//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | ||
- | The EF provided in [((bibcite 4))] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' | + | The EF provided in [(RENTZ2008)] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' |
- | + | ||
- | ------ | + | |
- | [[bibliography]] | + | [(AGEB2020> |
- | : 1 : AGEB, 2019: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; | + | [(KNOERR2020b> |
- | : 2 : Knörr et al. (2019b): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery (TREMOD MM) 2019, Heidelberg, | + | [(EMEPEEA2019> |
- | : 3 : EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019, Copenhagen, 2019. | + | [(RENTZ2008> |
- | : 4 : Rentz et al., 2008: Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, | + | [(KNOERR2009> |
- | : 5 : Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; | + | |
- | [[/ | + |