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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:international_maritime_navigation [2021/04/09 13:01] – [Table] kotzulla | sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:international_maritime_navigation [2023/01/17 07:25] – [Discussion of emission trends] kotzulla | ||
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^ Category Code | ^ Category Code | ||
| 1.A.3.d i (i) | T1, T2, T3 ||||| NS, M ||||| CS, M ||||| | | 1.A.3.d i (i) | T1, T2, T3 ||||| NS, M ||||| CS, M ||||| | ||
- | ^ Key Category | + | ^ Key Category |
| 1.A.3.d i (i) | //not included in key category analysis// | | 1.A.3.d i (i) | //not included in key category analysis// | ||
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\\ | \\ | ||
- | |||
===== Methodology ===== | ===== Methodology ===== | ||
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==== Activity data ==== | ==== Activity data ==== | ||
- | Primary fuel delivery data (primary activity data, PAD) for // | + | Primary fuel delivery data (primary activity data, PAD) for // |
The AD applied for // | The AD applied for // | ||
- | | <WRAP left round info 50%> AD< | + | | <WRAP left round info 100%> AD< |
- | <WRAP left round info 50%> | + | As a result, activity data can fluctuate strongly from year to year. |
- | AD< | + | |
- | </ | + | |
- | \\ | + | However, this effect can be explained with the fact that large ocean-going ships do not need to bunker fuels on every single harbour but can go on for weeks without any additional fuel uptake. |
- | \\ | + | |
- | \\ | + | |
- | + | ||
+ | This can be further increased with increasing differences in fuel prices. | ||
__Table 1: Annual fuel consumption, | __Table 1: Annual fuel consumption, | ||
- | | | + | | ^ |
- | ^ Diesel Oil | + | ^ Diesel |
- | ^ Heavy fuel oil | + | ^ Heavy fuel oil | |
- | | **Ʃ 1.A.3.d | + | | **Ʃ 1.A.3.d |
- | source: own estimates based on [(DEICHNIK2020)] | + | source: own estimates based on underlying BSH model (Deichnik, K. (2022)) |
Consumption of heavy oil has been increasing since 1984 as a result of high petroleum prices, global increases in transports and increasing maritime use of diesel engines that can run on heavy oil. The emissions fluctuations that occurred in the navigation sector in 1992 and 1996 were caused by trade and oil crises. | Consumption of heavy oil has been increasing since 1984 as a result of high petroleum prices, global increases in transports and increasing maritime use of diesel engines that can run on heavy oil. The emissions fluctuations that occurred in the navigation sector in 1992 and 1996 were caused by trade and oil crises. | ||
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Furthermore, | Furthermore, | ||
- | === Emission factors === | + | {{ : |
- | For **main pollutants** and **particulate matter**, modelled emission factors are available from (Deichnik, K. (2020)) [(DEICHNIK2020)]. | + | ==== Emission factors ==== |
+ | |||
+ | For **main pollutants** and **particulate matter**, modelled emission factors are available from (Deichnik, K. (2022)). | ||
Here, for **sulphur dioxide** and **particulate matter**, annual values are available representing the impact of fuel sulphur legislation. | Here, for **sulphur dioxide** and **particulate matter**, annual values are available representing the impact of fuel sulphur legislation. | ||
- | In addition, regarding SO,,x,,, the increasing operation of so-called scrubbers in order to fullfil emission limits especially within SECA areas is reflected for heavy fuel oil. | + | In addition, regarding SO< |
__Table 2: Annual country-specific emission factors, in kg/TJ__ | __Table 2: Annual country-specific emission factors, in kg/TJ__ | ||
- | | | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2006** | + | | ^ |
- | | **DIESEL OIL** | + | | **DIESEL OIL** | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC | + | ^ NMVOC |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ TSP< | + | ^ TSP< |
- | ^ CO | 127 | | + | ^ CO | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | 128 | |
- | | **HEAVY FUEL OIL** | + | | **HEAVY FUEL OIL** | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC | + | ^ NMVOC |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ TSP< | + | ^ TSP< |
- | ^ CO | | + | ^ CO | |
- | < | + | < |
< | < | ||
- | > **NOTE: | + | <WRAP center round info 100%> |
+ | For the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, no clear indication is available, whether or not condensables are included. | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | <WRAP center round info 100%> | ||
+ | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | ||
+ | </ | ||
- | > For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | ||
===== Discussion of emission trends===== | ===== Discussion of emission trends===== | ||
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**NFR 1.A.3.d i** is **not considered in the key category analysis**. | **NFR 1.A.3.d i** is **not considered in the key category analysis**. | ||
- | Emission | + | Basically, with no significant technical improvements with respect to mitigation technologies, |
+ | |||
+ | Here, as the amounts of fuels allocated to international maritime navigation represent the remains of annual over-all inland fuel deliveries minus fuel consumption in domestic shipping, activity data and, hence, emissions, fluctuate strongly from year to year (see also information on activity data as stated above). | ||
+ | |||
+ | Therefore, especially emission | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | |||
+ | In contrast, emission trends for **SO< | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
+ | {{ : | ||
- | On the other hand, the emission trends for **SO< | ||
===== Recalculations ===== | ===== Recalculations ===== | ||
- | Resulting from changes in the fuel consumption data computed within [(DEICHNIK2020)] for // | + | Resulting from changes in the fuel consumption data computed within [(DEICHNIK2022)] for // |
- | __Table 3: Revised fuel consumption data 2017, in terajoules__ | + | __Table 3: Revised |
- | ||= ||= **Diesel oil** ||= **Heavy fuel oil** ||= **over-all consumption** ||= | + | | |
- | ||~ Submission 2020 ||> 22,924 ||> 58,781 ||> 81,828 ||> | + | | **DIESEL OIL** |
- | ||~ Submission 2019 ||> 23,165 ||> 58,781 ||> 82,069 ||> | + | ^ current submission |
- | ||~ absolute change ||> | + | ^ previous submission |
- | ||~ relative change ||> -1.04% ||> 0.00% ||> -0.29% ||> | + | ^ absolute change |
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **HEAVY FUEL OIL** | | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **OVER-ALL FUEL CONSUMPTION** | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | <sup>1</ | ||
+ | In addition, all country-specific **emission factors have been revised** compared to last year's submission but cannot be displayed here. | ||
- | In contrast, all country-specific and default **emission factors applied remain unrevised** compared to last year's submission. | ||
- | <WRAP center round info 60%> | + | <WRAP center round info 65%> |
- | For more information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant-specific | + | For **pollutant-specific |
</ | </ | ||
===== Uncertainties ===== | ===== Uncertainties ===== | ||
- | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: " | + | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: " |
===== Planned improvements ===== | ===== Planned improvements ===== | ||
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===== FAQs ===== | ===== FAQs ===== | ||
- | [(AGEB2020> AGEB, 2020: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; | + | [(AGEB2022> AGEB, 2022: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; |
- | [(DEICHNIK2020> Deichnik, K. (2019): Aktualisierung und Revision des Modells zur Berechnung der spezifischen Verbräuche und Emissionen des von Deutschland ausgehenden Seeverkehrs. from Bundesamts für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH); Hamburg, | + | [(DEICHNIK2022> Deichnik, K. (2022): Aktualisierung und Revision des Modells zur Berechnung der spezifischen Verbräuche und Emissionen des von Deutschland ausgehenden Seeverkehrs. from Bundesamts für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH); Hamburg, |
[(EMEPEEA2019> | [(EMEPEEA2019> | ||
- | [(RENTZ2008> | ||
[(KNOERR2009> | [(KNOERR2009> |