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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:start [2022/03/16 08:41] – [Recalculations] kotzullasector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:start [2023/03/14 11:49] (current) – [Activity Data] kotzulla
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 ===== Methodology ===== ===== Methodology =====
  
-Emissions are calculated with the aid of the TREMOD model ("Transport Emission Estimation Model" v6.02) from (Knörr, W. et al. (2021a)) [(KNOERR2021a)].+Emissions are calculated with the aid of the TREMOD model ("Transport Emission Estimation Model") from (Knörr, W. et al. (2022a)) [(KNOERR2022a)].
  
 This model adopts a "bottom-up" (tier3) approach whereby mileage of the individual vehicle layers is multiplied by region-specific emission factors. For passenger cars and light duty vehicles, a “cold start surplus” is also added. The total consumption calculated on the basis of fuel type is compared with the consumption according to the Energy Balance. The emissions are then corrected with the aid of factors obtained from this comparison process. For petrol-powered vehicles, the evaporation emissions of VOC are calculated in keeping with the pollution-control technology used. From the emissions and fuel consumption for the various vehicle layers, aggregated, fuelbased emission factors (kg of emissions per TJ of fuel consumption) are derived, and then the emission factors are forwarded to the CSE via a relevant interface. In keeping with the CORINAIR report structure, these factors are differentiated only by type of fuel, type of road (autobahn, rural road, city road) and, within the vehicle categories, by "without/with emissions-control equipment". The following emissions-control categories are differentiated: This model adopts a "bottom-up" (tier3) approach whereby mileage of the individual vehicle layers is multiplied by region-specific emission factors. For passenger cars and light duty vehicles, a “cold start surplus” is also added. The total consumption calculated on the basis of fuel type is compared with the consumption according to the Energy Balance. The emissions are then corrected with the aid of factors obtained from this comparison process. For petrol-powered vehicles, the evaporation emissions of VOC are calculated in keeping with the pollution-control technology used. From the emissions and fuel consumption for the various vehicle layers, aggregated, fuelbased emission factors (kg of emissions per TJ of fuel consumption) are derived, and then the emission factors are forwarded to the CSE via a relevant interface. In keeping with the CORINAIR report structure, these factors are differentiated only by type of fuel, type of road (autobahn, rural road, city road) and, within the vehicle categories, by "without/with emissions-control equipment". The following emissions-control categories are differentiated:
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 ==== Activity Data ==== ==== Activity Data ====
  
-The basis for CSE data collection for the road-transport sector consists of fuel consumption data provided by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) [(AGEB2021)]. For each year, the sum of the activity rates for the various individual structural elements must correspond to the Energy Balance data, in terajoule. The relevant basic Energy Balance data is shown in the table below.+The basis for CSE data collection for the road-transport sector consists of fuel consumption data provided by the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) [(AGEB2022)]. For each year, the sum of the activity rates for the various individual structural elements must correspond to the Energy Balance data, in terajoule. The relevant basic Energy Balance data is shown in the table below.
  
 __Table 1: Fuel consumption in German road transport, in terajoules__ __Table 1: Fuel consumption in German road transport, in terajoules__
-|        ^  Gasoline  ^  Diesel oil  ^  Biofuels  ^  CNG, LPG & LNG  ^  Petroleum  ^  Lubricant  ^ +|        ^  Diesel oil  ^  Gasoline  ^  LPG    ^  CNG   ^  LNG   ^  Petroleum<sup>1</sup>  ^  Biodiesel  ^  Biogasoline  ^  Biogas  ^  Lubricants<sup>2</sup>  ^  TOTAL     ^ 
-^  1990  |  1,330,479 |      735,920 |          0 |              138 |           0 |       2,495 | +^  1990  |      735,920 |  1,330,479 |     138 |        |        |                         |             |               |          |                    2,543 |  2,069,080 | 
-^  1991  |  1,332,285 |      785,174 |          0 |              137 |           0 |       1,668 | +^  1991  |      785,174 |  1,332,285 |     137 |        |        |                         |             |               |          |                    1,702 |  2,119,298 | 
-^  1992  |  1,344,129 |      853,502 |          0 |              229 |           0 |       1,275 | +^  1992  |      853,502 |  1,344,129 |     229 |        |        |                         |             |               |          |                    1,299 |  2,199,159 | 
-^  1993  |  1,350,617 |      907,787 |          0 |              184 |         473 |         857 | +^  1993  |      907,787 |  1,350,617 |     184 |        |        |                     473 |             |               |          |                      872 |  2,259,933 | 
-^  1994  |  1,276,637 |      932,060 |          0 |              184 |         559 |         586 | +^  1994  |      932,060 |  1,276,637 |     184 |        |        |                     559 |             |               |          |                      596 |  2,210,036 | 
-^  1995  |  1,299,982 |      964,013 |      1,504 |              138 |         610 |         447 | +^  1995  |      964,013 |  1,299,982 |     138 |        |        |                     610 |       1,504 |               |          |                      455 |  2,266,702 | 
-^  1996  |  1,299,879 |      964,580 |      2,046 |              115 |         638 |         365 | +^  1996  |      964,580 |  1,299,879 |     115 |        |        |                     638 |       2,046 |               |          |                      372 |  2,267,630 | 
-^  1997  |  1,297,487 |      979,586 |      3,652 |              106 |         357 |         261 | +^  1997  |      979,586 |  1,297,487 |     106 |        |        |                     357 |       3,652 |               |          |                      266 |  2,281,454 | 
-^  1998  |  1,300,463 |    1,022,794 |      4,081 |              106 |         637 |         202 | +^  1998  |    1,022,794 |  1,300,463 |     106 |        |        |                     637 |       4,081 |               |          |                      206 |  2,328,287 | 
-^  1999  |  1,300,602 |    1,097,036 |      5,370 |              100 |         637 |         113 | +^  1999  |    1,097,036 |  1,300,602 |     100 |        |        |                     637 |       5,370 |               |          |                      116 |  2,403,861 | 
-^  2000  |  1,237,055 |    1,108,105 |     12,276 |               94 |         414 |          81 | +^  2000  |    1,108,105 |  1,237,055 |      94 |        |        |                     414 |      12,276 |               |          |                       83 |  2,358,027 | 
-^  2001  |  1,199,318 |    1,097,416 |     16,740 |               98 |         471 |          73 | +^  2001  |    1,097,416 |  1,199,318 |      98 |        |        |                     471 |      16,740 |               |          |                       74 |  2,314,117 | 
-^  2002  |  1,166,381 |    1,105,842 |     20,460 |              607 |         472 |          75 | +^  2002  |    1,105,842 |  1,166,381 |     607 |        |        |                     472 |      20,460 |               |          |                       77 |  2,293,839 | 
-^  2003  |  1,108,989 |    1,078,352 |     29,948 |              694 |           0 |          71 | +^  2003  |    1,078,352 |  1,108,989 |     694 |        |        |                       0 |      29,948 |               |          |                       73 |  2,218,056 | 
-^  2004  |  1,072,720 |    1,110,931 |     40,042 |            1,887 |           0 |          73 | +^  2004  |    1,110,931 |  1,072,720 |   1,887 |        |        |                       0 |      38,898 |         1,144 |          |                       75 |  2,225,655 | 
-^  2005  |    992,377 |    1,078,620 |     78,897 |            5,484 |           0 |          77 | +^  2005  |    1,078,620 |    992,377 |   2,357 |  3,127 |        |                       0 |      72,080 |         6,817 |          |                       78 |  2,155,457 | 
-^  2006  |    930,834 |    1,082,042 |    143,881 |            9,051 |           0 |          76 | +^  2006  |    1,082,042 |    930,834 |   4,605 |  4,446 |        |                       0 |     130,463 |        13,418 |          |                       77 |  2,165,884 | 
-^  2007  |    892,982 |    1,073,987 |    155,752 |           14,787 |           0 |          79 | +^  2007  |    1,073,987 |    892,982 |   8,942 |  5,845 |        |                       0 |     143,691 |        12,061 |          |                       80 |  2,137,589 | 
-^  2008  |    854,002 |    1,102,624 |    126,181 |           22,796 |           0 |          80 | +^  2008  |    1,102,624 |    854,002 |  15,652 |  7,144 |        |                       0 |     109,853 |        16,328 |          |                       81 |  2,105,684 | 
-^  2009  |    829,227 |    1,114,939 |    113,765 |           32,285 |           0 |          86 | +^  2009  |    1,114,939 |    829,227 |  23,842 |  8,443 |        |                       0 |      90,074 |        23,691 |          |                       87 |  2,090,304 | 
-^  2010  |    791,416 |    1,168,063 |    120,129 |           30,591 |           0 |          81 | +^  2010  |    1,168,063 |    791,416 |  21,823 |  8,768 |        |                       0 |      89,552 |        30,577 |          |                       83 |  2,110,282 | 
-^  2011  |    787,803 |    1,197,252 |    115,828 |           32,384 |           0 |          80 | +^  2011  |    1,197,252 |    787,803 |  23,613 |  8,771 |        |                       0 |      83,536 |        32,292 |          |                       81 |  2,133,348 | 
-^  2012  |    742,000 |    1,223,718 |    120,513 |           32,438 |           0 |          76 | +^  2012  |    1,223,719 |    742,000 |  23,532 |  8,869 |     36 |                       0 |      86,365 |        32,882 |    1,267 |                       77 |  2,118,745 | 
-^  2013  |    741,150 |    1,283,637 |    109,358 |           30,508 |           0 |          77 | +^  2013  |    1,283,637 |    741,150 |  23,077 |  7,389 |     41 |                       0 |      76,126 |        31,770 |    1,462 |                       78 |  2,164,730 | 
-^  2014  |    744,661 |    1,296,828 |    113,957 |           28,983 |           0 |          77 | +^  2014  |    1,296,828 |    744,661 |  21,464 |  7,472 |     47 |                       0 |      79,691 |        32,383 |    1,883 |                       78 |  2,184,507 | 
-^  2015  |    708,672 |    1,348,789 |    105,764 |           26,420 |           0 |          77 | +^  2015  |    1,348,789 |    708,672 |  18,963 |  7,407 |     52 |                       0 |      73,779 |        30,736 |    1,249 |                       78 |  2,189,725 | 
-^  2016  |    709,179 |    1,393,481 |    106,054 |           22,705 |           0 |          77 | +^  2016  |    1,393,481 |    709,179 |  16,799 |  5,848 |     63 |                       0 |      73,875 |        30,804 |    1,375 |                       78 |  2,231,502 | 
-^  2017  |    719,580 |    1,425,424 |    108,049 |           21,316 |           0 |          77 | +^  2017  |    1,425,424 |    719,580 |  15,377 |  5,848 |    104 |                       0 |      76,096 |        30,337 |    1,616 |                       77 |  2,274,459 | 
-^  2018  |    692,694 |    1,377,104 |    112,594 |           21,514 |           0 |          76 | +^  2018  |    1,377,104 |    692,694 |  16,153 |  5,198 |    192 |                       0 |      80,049 |        31,146 |    1,399 |                       76 |  2,204,011 | 
-^  2019  |    699,835 |    1,390,837 |    111,781 |           21,147 |           0 |          76 | +^  2019  |    1,390,837 |    699,835 |  14,602 |  5,848 |    830 |                       0 |      79,219 |        30,184 |    2,378 |                       77 |  2,223,810 | 
-^  2020  |    629,926 |    1,241,557 |    135,073 |           22,708 |           0 |          78 |+^  2020  |    1,239,658 |    629,435 |   9,551 |  5,912 |  2,511 |                       0 |     102,973 |        28,737 |    3,181 |                       80 |  2,022,040 | 
 +^  2021  |    1,254,201 |    634,080 |   9,500 |  6,657 |  5,045 |                       0 |      87,131 |        30,165 |    3,181 |                       73 |  2,030,033 | 
 +<sup>1</sup>: applied only from 1993 to 2002 in a small number of buses (se chapter on NFR 1.A.3.b iii)
  
-Source: Evaluation tables of the Energy Balances, "Mineralölzahlen" ("Petroleum Data") of the Association of the German Petroleum Industry (MWV) [(MWV2021)] and "Amtliche Mineralöldaten" ("Official Petroleum Data", BAFA); lubricant in 2-Stroke mix: TREMOD+<sup>2</sup>: amounts of lubricants __unintentionally__ co-incinerated in road vehicles (lubricants intentionally co-incinerated in 2-stroke road vehicles are taken into account in NFR 2.D.3.i Mobile Use of Lubricants 
 + 
 +The following chart illustrates the (ongoing) trend to diesel vehicles operated in Germany, the so-called "Dieselization" with the amounts of fossil diesel oil exceeing those of fossil gasoline fuels from 2004 onwards. 
 + 
 +{{ :sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:1a3b_dieselisation.png?1000 | Vizualisation of so-called "Dieselization"}}
  
 For more information on the derivation of activity data and the emission factors applied, please refer to the sub-ordinate chapters as well as Appendix 2.2. For more information on the derivation of activity data and the emission factors applied, please refer to the sub-ordinate chapters as well as Appendix 2.2.
 +
 +Chart 2 illustrates the increase in annual mileage of electric road vehicles in 10<sup>6</sup> kilometers. Despite the exponential growth, only about 1 per cent of annual mileage was "electric" in 2021 (7,000,000,000 of 682,831,000,000 km).
 +{{ :sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:1a3b_mileage_electric.png?700 | Annual mileage of electric road vehicles }}
  
 ===== Uncertainties =====  ===== Uncertainties ===== 
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 Basically, recalculations result from a) the revision of the National Energy Balance (for most recent years) and b) routine revsisions of the underlying TREMOD model (recent years or entire time series, depending on outline of revision). Basically, recalculations result from a) the revision of the National Energy Balance (for most recent years) and b) routine revsisions of the underlying TREMOD model (recent years or entire time series, depending on outline of revision).
    
-For more details please refer to chapter 1.A.3.b i-iv - Emissions from Fuel Combustion in Road Vehicles and the related sub-chapters as linked above.+For more details please refer to the related sub-chapters as linked above.
  
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
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 Besides the routine revision of the TREMOD model, no specific improvements are planned. Besides the routine revision of the TREMOD model, no specific improvements are planned.
  
-[(KNOERR2021a> Knörr et al. (2021a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg [u.a.]: Ifeu Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2021. )] +[(KNOERR2022a> Knörr et al. (2022a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg [u.a.]: Ifeu Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2022.)] 
-[(AGEB2021> AGEB (2021): Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2019.html, Köln & Berlin, 2021.)]+[(AGEB2022>AGEB, 2022: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2020/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2011-2020, (Aufruf: 23.11.2022), Köln & Berlin, 2022)] 
 +[(BAFA2022>BAFA, 2022: Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Amtliche Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; 
 +https://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Energie/Mineraloel/moel_amtliche_daten_2021_12.xlsx;jsessionid=80E1FD32B36918F682608C03FDE79257.1_cid381?__blob=publicationFile&v=5, Eschborn, 2022.)]
 [(MWV2021> MWV (2021): Association of the German Petroleum Industry (Mineralölwirtschaftsverband, MWV): Annual Report 2018, page 65, Table 'Sektoraler Verbrauch von Dieselkraftstoff 2012-2019'; URL: https://www.mwv.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MWV_Mineraloelwirtschaftsverband-e.V.-Jahresbericht-2020-Webversion.pdf, Berlin, 2021.)] [(MWV2021> MWV (2021): Association of the German Petroleum Industry (Mineralölwirtschaftsverband, MWV): Annual Report 2018, page 65, Table 'Sektoraler Verbrauch von Dieselkraftstoff 2012-2019'; URL: https://www.mwv.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MWV_Mineraloelwirtschaftsverband-e.V.-Jahresbericht-2020-Webversion.pdf, Berlin, 2021.)]
 [(KNOERR2009> Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; final report; URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/461/publikationen/3937.pdf, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich, 2009.)] [(KNOERR2009> Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; final report; URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/461/publikationen/3937.pdf, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich, 2009.)]