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appendices:appendix4_the_national_energy_balance [2025/04/16 09:13] – [Uncertainties, time-series consistency and quality assurance in the Energy Balance] kotzullaappendices:appendix4_the_national_energy_balance [2025/04/29 14:38] (current) – [Uncertainties, time-series consistency and quality assurance in the Energy Balance] tarakji
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 Additional data, supplementing those provided by the aformentioned data sources, are provided by associations of the German energy industry, and by German research institutes. The final Energy Balance includes data from the following associations: Nuclear Technology Germany (KernD); the Federal German association of lignite-producing companies and their affiliated organisations (DEBRIV);  the Federal German association of the energy and water-resources industries (bdew); the Gesamtverband Steinkohle association of the German hard-coal-mining industry (GVSt); and the Fuels and Energy industry association (en2x). In the Federal Republic of Germany, energy statistics are published by numerous other agencies, and their statistics can differ in terms of their presentation, scope, methods and aggregation. Additional data, supplementing those provided by the aformentioned data sources, are provided by associations of the German energy industry, and by German research institutes. The final Energy Balance includes data from the following associations: Nuclear Technology Germany (KernD); the Federal German association of lignite-producing companies and their affiliated organisations (DEBRIV);  the Federal German association of the energy and water-resources industries (bdew); the Gesamtverband Steinkohle association of the German hard-coal-mining industry (GVSt); and the Fuels and Energy industry association (en2x). In the Federal Republic of Germany, energy statistics are published by numerous other agencies, and their statistics can differ in terms of their presentation, scope, methods and aggregation.
  
-The complete Energy Balances for the years since 1990 are available on the Internet at: +The complete Energy Balances for the years since 1990 are available on the Internet at (AGEB, 2025) [(AGEB2025)].
-https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2030/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2021-2030+
  
 The AGEB's website presents a foreword for the Energy Balances (AGEB, 2015) that describes the structure of the Energy Balance. The AGEB's website presents a foreword for the Energy Balances (AGEB, 2015) that describes the structure of the Energy Balance.
 The overall responsibility for preparation of Energy Balances lies with the AGEB. The overall responsibility for preparation of Energy Balances lies with the AGEB.
  
-In recent years, German experts on energy statistics have expended considerable efforts on the task of minimizing the differences between the provisional and final Energy Balances. In 2020, the Federal Statistical Office obtained the EU grant “improvement of timeliness of energy statistics” from EUROSTAT. In the framework of a dedicated project, this funding is expected to enable the Federal Statistical Office to provide data for year x-1, to the AGEB, as early as August of the relevant year. The pertinent project was launched in 2020, and it includes the statistical offices of the Länder, which are responsible for the concrete surveys involved. Key surveys for the preparation of the Energy Balance and the emissions inventories have been given temporal priority. As a result, the Federal Statistical Office, working on the basis of the data collected by the reference date, and using imputation procedures, was able – in July 2020 – to extrapolate a complete data set for the year 2019. In July 2021, the so-developed methods were used in routine operations for the first time. In October 2021, quality assurance for the methods was carried out by comparing the extrapolated results with the final 2020 survey data. In the 2022 survey year, the resulting methodological improvements made it possible to prepare a considerably improved provisional Energy Balance, now based, for the first time, on extrapolations – the 2021 provisional Energy Balance. The participating institutions coordinated their scheduling for the relevent data flow so carefully that a number of process steps were carried out in the shortest possible time, and the relevant data were made available for inventory preparation in reporting year 2023.+In recent years, German experts on energy statistics have expended considerable efforts on the task of minimizing the differences between the provisional and final Energy Balances. In 2020, the Federal Statistical Office obtained the EU grant “improvement of timeliness of energy statistics” from EUROSTAT. In the framework of a dedicated project, this funding is expected to enable the Federal Statistical Office to provide data for year x-1, to the AGEB, as early as August of the relevant year. The pertinent project was launched in 2020, and it includes the statistical offices of the Länder, which are responsible for the concrete surveys involved. Key surveys for the preparation of the Energy Balance and the emissions inventories have been given temporal priority. As a result, the Federal Statistical Office, working on the basis of the data collected by the reference date, and using imputation procedures, was able – in July 2020 – to extrapolate a complete data set for the year 2019. In July 2021, the so-developed methods were used in routine operations for the first time.  
 + 
 +In October 2021, quality assurance for the methods was carried out by comparing the extrapolated results with the final 2020 survey data. In the 2022 survey year, the resulting methodological improvements made it possible to prepare a considerably improved provisional Energy Balance, now based, for the first time, on extrapolations – the 2021 provisional Energy Balance. The participating institutions coordinated their scheduling for the relevent data flow so carefully that a number of process steps were carried out in the shortest possible time, and the relevant data were made available for inventory preparation in reporting year 2023.
  
 ==== Structure of the Energy Balances ==== ==== Structure of the Energy Balances ====
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   * Methodological changes in the 2012 Energy Balance     * Methodological changes in the 2012 Energy Balance  
   * Explanations relative to the Energy Balances (updated as of November 2015)     * Explanations relative to the Energy Balances (updated as of November 2015)  
-In October 2021, the AGEB prepared a report, in compliance with its contract, on "Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions" ("Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland").  In all likelihood, the time series will be revised in 2023, as part of the implementation of the proposals made in that report. The AGEB has provided UBA with an overview of the required revisions.+ 
 +In October 2021, the AGEB prepared a report, in compliance with its contract, on "Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions" ("Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland") resulting in a fundamental revision of the time series in 2023 and for the 2024 emission reporting (see NID and IIR 2024) [(AGEB2021)].
  
 === Quality report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) regarding preparation of Energy Balances for the Federal Republic of Germany === === Quality report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) regarding preparation of Energy Balances for the Federal Republic of Germany ===
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 The basic working method for preparation of Energy Balances has changed, partly for the reason that revisions of Balance data are pending. Now, the Energy Balances for Germany are now being centrally generated, via a database (which is stored at the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW). The basic responsibilities for the various energy sources / fuels (Energy Environment Forecast and Analysis (EEFA) institute: hard coal, lignite, coking gas, blast furnace gas, basic oxygen furnace gas and mine gas; ZSW: petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, petroleum gas, and other fuels; office of the Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics (Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat): renewable energies) have not been affected by the change. Also, in connection with its Energy Balance work, the DIW Berlin has coordinated the quarterly estimates of primary energy consumption for the Federal Republic of Germany, and prepared estimates for the energy area “Other.” In this framework, the EEFA research institute is responsible for the fuel “hard coal.” Figures on renewable energies are calculated and published on the basis of the relevant data, in consultation with the office of the Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics (GS AGEE-Stat).  The basic working method for preparation of Energy Balances has changed, partly for the reason that revisions of Balance data are pending. Now, the Energy Balances for Germany are now being centrally generated, via a database (which is stored at the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW). The basic responsibilities for the various energy sources / fuels (Energy Environment Forecast and Analysis (EEFA) institute: hard coal, lignite, coking gas, blast furnace gas, basic oxygen furnace gas and mine gas; ZSW: petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, petroleum gas, and other fuels; office of the Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics (Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat): renewable energies) have not been affected by the change. Also, in connection with its Energy Balance work, the DIW Berlin has coordinated the quarterly estimates of primary energy consumption for the Federal Republic of Germany, and prepared estimates for the energy area “Other.” In this framework, the EEFA research institute is responsible for the fuel “hard coal.” Figures on renewable energies are calculated and published on the basis of the relevant data, in consultation with the office of the Working Group on Renewable Energy Statistics (GS AGEE-Stat). 
  
-In February of 2022, EEFA/ZSW prepared an “early-estimate” version of the 2021 Energy Balance (with data available as of 15 February 2022). The 2021 provisional Energy Balance was then submitted in May 2022. In September of the same year, a further 2021 provisional, “early-estimate” Energy Balance was prepared, along with the pertinent evaluation tables. That Balance included data and estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, including data and estimates on development of final energy consumption by industry. In the normal process, data from official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) [(BAFA2023)] are integrated within the petroleum section of the Energy Balance. Those data, covering the previous year, are usually in April.+In February of 2022, EEFA/ZSW prepared an “early-estimate” version of the 2021 Energy Balance (with data available as of 15 February 2022). The 2021 provisional Energy Balance was then submitted in May 2022. In September of the same year, a further 2021 provisional, “early-estimate” Energy Balance was prepared, along with the pertinent evaluation tables. That Balance included data and estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, including data and estimates on development of final energy consumption by industry. In the normal process, data from official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) [(BAFA2024)] are integrated within the petroleum section of the Energy Balance. Those data, covering the previous year, are usually in April.
  
 In February or spring of any given year, important official data sources, such as surveys relative to energy consumption of industrial sectors, are normally not yet available. Consequently, the pertinent data gaps have to be closed with the help of estimates. Understandably, an estimated Energy Balance (or an early-estimate version of the Balance) cannot fulfill the strict data-quality requirements met by the final Energy Balance, which is a work published with a time lag of about one year. In February or spring of any given year, important official data sources, such as surveys relative to energy consumption of industrial sectors, are normally not yet available. Consequently, the pertinent data gaps have to be closed with the help of estimates. Understandably, an estimated Energy Balance (or an early-estimate version of the Balance) cannot fulfill the strict data-quality requirements met by the final Energy Balance, which is a work published with a time lag of about one year.
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   * Energiesteuerstatistik (energy taxation statistics), Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.3).   * Energiesteuerstatistik (energy taxation statistics), Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.3).
  
-The data of the Federal Statistical Office (StaBuA) are subject to official quality requirements. The quality reports of the Federal Statistical Office are available on the Internet: +The data of the Federal Statistical Office (StaBuA) are subject to official quality requirements.  
-https://www.destatis.de/DE/Methoden/Qualitaet/Qualitaetsberichte/Energie/einfuehrung.html , last checked on 6 February 2023.+The quality reports of the Federal Statistical Office are available online at (Destatis, 2025) [(DESTATIS2025)].
  
-In addition, data from the Official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) are used [(BAFA2023)]:  +In addition, data from the Official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) are applied (BAFA, 2024) [(BAFA2024)].
-https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc.+
  
 The AMS, which are published monthly and annually, are a closed, consistent system covering all petroleum production and consumption in Germany. The statistical basis for the AMS consists of the Integrated Mineral Oil Report (Integrierte Mineralölbericht – IM), which is prepared monthly, on the basis of the Act on mineral oil data (Mineralöldatengesetz), with input from companies operating in Germany's petroleum market. The Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) reports the pertinent production and consumption data, together with the relevant data of the Federal Statistical Office, to IEA and Eurostat, which publish internationally comparable energy balances. The calorific values for crude oil inputs, and the petroleum products, that are covered by these reports are cross-checked against the national Energy Balance. For the Energy Balance's section on petroleum, both AMS data and data of the Federal Statistical Office are used.  The AMS, which are published monthly and annually, are a closed, consistent system covering all petroleum production and consumption in Germany. The statistical basis for the AMS consists of the Integrated Mineral Oil Report (Integrierte Mineralölbericht – IM), which is prepared monthly, on the basis of the Act on mineral oil data (Mineralöldatengesetz), with input from companies operating in Germany's petroleum market. The Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) reports the pertinent production and consumption data, together with the relevant data of the Federal Statistical Office, to IEA and Eurostat, which publish internationally comparable energy balances. The calorific values for crude oil inputs, and the petroleum products, that are covered by these reports are cross-checked against the national Energy Balance. For the Energy Balance's section on petroleum, both AMS data and data of the Federal Statistical Office are used. 
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 **Ongoing early estimate of the German Energy Balance, beginning in February of the following year** **Ongoing early estimate of the German Energy Balance, beginning in February of the following year**
  
-The fact that the early estimate of the complete German Energy Balance for the previous year now becomes available as of 15 February of each year must be seen as a significant improvement, schedule-wise, in the availability of complete energy data.  The early estimate of the Energy Balance is not based solely on the energy data that are available at the time it is produced; extensive portions of the early Balance (such as those covering final energy consumption) are also based on formal forecasting procedures (models). Details on the approach used in preparing the early estimate of the German Energy Balance are provided in the UBA study “Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen” (“Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories”) (UBA-Texte 18/23) (available on the internet at: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/pilotprojekt-zur-fruehschaetzung-der-energiebilanz).+The fact that the early estimate of the complete German Energy Balance for the previous year now becomes available as of 15 February of each year must be seen as a significant improvement, schedule-wise, in the availability of complete energy data.  The early estimate of the Energy Balance is not based solely on the energy data that are available at the time it is produced; extensive portions of the early Balance (such as those covering final energy consumption) are also based on formal forecasting procedures (models).  
 + 
 +Details on the approach used in preparing the early estimate of the German Energy Balance are provided in the UBA study “Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen” (“Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories”) from Buttermann & Nieder (2023) [(BUTTERMANN2023)].
  
 The most-current early estimate of the Energy Balance for the 2022 reporting year will be provided to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on 15 February 2023. The most-current early estimate of the Energy Balance for the 2022 reporting year will be provided to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on 15 February 2023.
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 Data on use of petroleum coke in metallurgical coking plants are provided for the Federal balance by the relevant German Länder, on the basis of an agreement between the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) and the Länder working group on Energy Balances (Länderarbeitskreis Energiebilanzen). Data on use of petroleum coke in metallurgical coking plants are provided for the Federal balance by the relevant German Länder, on the basis of an agreement between the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) and the Länder working group on Energy Balances (Länderarbeitskreis Energiebilanzen).
  
-[(AGEB2024>AGEB, 2024: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;  +[(AGEB2025>AGEB (2025): Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;  
-https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2030/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2021-2030, (Aufruf: 12.12.2023), Köln & Berlin, 2024)]+https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2030/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2021-2030, Köln & Berlin, 2025)]
 [(AGEB2003> AGEB, 2003: Energiebilanzen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Jahre 1990-1999. Frankfurt a. M.: Verlags- und Wirtschaftsgesellschaft der Elektrizitätswerke. )] [(AGEB2003> AGEB, 2003: Energiebilanzen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Jahre 1990-1999. Frankfurt a. M.: Verlags- und Wirtschaftsgesellschaft der Elektrizitätswerke. )]
-[(AGEB2020> AGEB, 2020: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2018.html, Köln & Berlin, 2020.)] +[(AGEB2021> AGEB (2021): Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions (Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland): special report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB), https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AGEB_InfoAusgabe-3-2023.pdf; 2021)] 
-[(BAFA2024> BAFA, 2023: Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Infothek zu den Amtlichen Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;  +[(BAFA2024> BAFA (2024): Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Infothek zu den Amtlichen Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;  
-URL: https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc, (Aufruf: 11.05.2023), Eschborn, 2024.)] +URL: https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc, Eschborn, 2024.)]  
 +[(DESTATIS2025> Destatis (2025): Federal Statsitical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt - Destatis):Quality Reports (Qualitätsberichte: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Methoden/Qualitaet/Qualitaetsberichte/Energie/einfuehrung.html, Wiesbaden, 2025)]
  
 +[(BUTTERMANN2023> Buttermann, H.-G. & Nieder, Th. (2023): Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories (Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 - Berechnung einer vorläufigen Version der Energiebilanz zum Berichtsjahr 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen);
 +https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/texte_18-2023_pilotprojekt_zur_fruehschaetzung_der_energiebilanz_2020.pdf; UBA-Texte 18/2023 on order of the Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau, Januar 2023)]