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appendices:appendix4_the_national_energy_balance [2025/04/16 09:17] – [Uncertainties, time-series consistency and quality assurance in the Energy Balance] kotzullaappendices:appendix4_the_national_energy_balance [2025/04/29 14:38] (current) – [Uncertainties, time-series consistency and quality assurance in the Energy Balance] tarakji
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 The overall responsibility for preparation of Energy Balances lies with the AGEB. The overall responsibility for preparation of Energy Balances lies with the AGEB.
  
-In recent years, German experts on energy statistics have expended considerable efforts on the task of minimizing the differences between the provisional and final Energy Balances. In 2020, the Federal Statistical Office obtained the EU grant “improvement of timeliness of energy statistics” from EUROSTAT. In the framework of a dedicated project, this funding is expected to enable the Federal Statistical Office to provide data for year x-1, to the AGEB, as early as August of the relevant year. The pertinent project was launched in 2020, and it includes the statistical offices of the Länder, which are responsible for the concrete surveys involved. Key surveys for the preparation of the Energy Balance and the emissions inventories have been given temporal priority. As a result, the Federal Statistical Office, working on the basis of the data collected by the reference date, and using imputation procedures, was able – in July 2020 – to extrapolate a complete data set for the year 2019. In July 2021, the so-developed methods were used in routine operations for the first time. In October 2021, quality assurance for the methods was carried out by comparing the extrapolated results with the final 2020 survey data. In the 2022 survey year, the resulting methodological improvements made it possible to prepare a considerably improved provisional Energy Balance, now based, for the first time, on extrapolations – the 2021 provisional Energy Balance. The participating institutions coordinated their scheduling for the relevent data flow so carefully that a number of process steps were carried out in the shortest possible time, and the relevant data were made available for inventory preparation in reporting year 2023.+In recent years, German experts on energy statistics have expended considerable efforts on the task of minimizing the differences between the provisional and final Energy Balances. In 2020, the Federal Statistical Office obtained the EU grant “improvement of timeliness of energy statistics” from EUROSTAT. In the framework of a dedicated project, this funding is expected to enable the Federal Statistical Office to provide data for year x-1, to the AGEB, as early as August of the relevant year. The pertinent project was launched in 2020, and it includes the statistical offices of the Länder, which are responsible for the concrete surveys involved. Key surveys for the preparation of the Energy Balance and the emissions inventories have been given temporal priority. As a result, the Federal Statistical Office, working on the basis of the data collected by the reference date, and using imputation procedures, was able – in July 2020 – to extrapolate a complete data set for the year 2019. In July 2021, the so-developed methods were used in routine operations for the first time.  
 + 
 +In October 2021, quality assurance for the methods was carried out by comparing the extrapolated results with the final 2020 survey data. In the 2022 survey year, the resulting methodological improvements made it possible to prepare a considerably improved provisional Energy Balance, now based, for the first time, on extrapolations – the 2021 provisional Energy Balance. The participating institutions coordinated their scheduling for the relevent data flow so carefully that a number of process steps were carried out in the shortest possible time, and the relevant data were made available for inventory preparation in reporting year 2023.
  
 ==== Structure of the Energy Balances ==== ==== Structure of the Energy Balances ====
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   * Methodological changes in the 2012 Energy Balance     * Methodological changes in the 2012 Energy Balance  
   * Explanations relative to the Energy Balances (updated as of November 2015)     * Explanations relative to the Energy Balances (updated as of November 2015)  
-In October 2021, the AGEB prepared a report, in compliance with its contract, on "Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions" ("Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland").  In all likelihood, the time series will be revised in 2023, as part of the implementation of the proposals made in that report. The AGEB has provided UBA with an overview of the required revisions.+ 
 +In October 2021, the AGEB prepared a report, in compliance with its contract, on "Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions" ("Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland") resulting in a fundamental revision of the time series in 2023 and for the 2024 emission reporting (see NID and IIR 2024) [(AGEB2021)].
  
 === Quality report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) regarding preparation of Energy Balances for the Federal Republic of Germany === === Quality report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB) regarding preparation of Energy Balances for the Federal Republic of Germany ===
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   * Energiesteuerstatistik (energy taxation statistics), Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.3).   * Energiesteuerstatistik (energy taxation statistics), Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.3).
  
-The data of the Federal Statistical Office (StaBuA) are subject to official quality requirements. The quality reports of the Federal Statistical Office are available on the Internet: +The data of the Federal Statistical Office (StaBuA) are subject to official quality requirements.  
-https://www.destatis.de/DE/Methoden/Qualitaet/Qualitaetsberichte/Energie/einfuehrung.html, last checked on 6 February 2023.+The quality reports of the Federal Statistical Office are available online at (Destatis, 2025) [(DESTATIS2025)].
  
-In addition, data from the Official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) are used [(BAFA2024)]:  +In addition, data from the Official Mineral Oil Statistics (AMS) of the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) are applied (BAFA, 2024) [(BAFA2024)].
-https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc.+
  
 The AMS, which are published monthly and annually, are a closed, consistent system covering all petroleum production and consumption in Germany. The statistical basis for the AMS consists of the Integrated Mineral Oil Report (Integrierte Mineralölbericht – IM), which is prepared monthly, on the basis of the Act on mineral oil data (Mineralöldatengesetz), with input from companies operating in Germany's petroleum market. The Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) reports the pertinent production and consumption data, together with the relevant data of the Federal Statistical Office, to IEA and Eurostat, which publish internationally comparable energy balances. The calorific values for crude oil inputs, and the petroleum products, that are covered by these reports are cross-checked against the national Energy Balance. For the Energy Balance's section on petroleum, both AMS data and data of the Federal Statistical Office are used.  The AMS, which are published monthly and annually, are a closed, consistent system covering all petroleum production and consumption in Germany. The statistical basis for the AMS consists of the Integrated Mineral Oil Report (Integrierte Mineralölbericht – IM), which is prepared monthly, on the basis of the Act on mineral oil data (Mineralöldatengesetz), with input from companies operating in Germany's petroleum market. The Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) reports the pertinent production and consumption data, together with the relevant data of the Federal Statistical Office, to IEA and Eurostat, which publish internationally comparable energy balances. The calorific values for crude oil inputs, and the petroleum products, that are covered by these reports are cross-checked against the national Energy Balance. For the Energy Balance's section on petroleum, both AMS data and data of the Federal Statistical Office are used. 
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 **Ongoing early estimate of the German Energy Balance, beginning in February of the following year** **Ongoing early estimate of the German Energy Balance, beginning in February of the following year**
  
-The fact that the early estimate of the complete German Energy Balance for the previous year now becomes available as of 15 February of each year must be seen as a significant improvement, schedule-wise, in the availability of complete energy data.  The early estimate of the Energy Balance is not based solely on the energy data that are available at the time it is produced; extensive portions of the early Balance (such as those covering final energy consumption) are also based on formal forecasting procedures (models). Details on the approach used in preparing the early estimate of the German Energy Balance are provided in the UBA study “Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen” (“Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories”) (UBA-Texte 18/23) (available on the internet at: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/pilotprojekt-zur-fruehschaetzung-der-energiebilanz).+The fact that the early estimate of the complete German Energy Balance for the previous year now becomes available as of 15 February of each year must be seen as a significant improvement, schedule-wise, in the availability of complete energy data.  The early estimate of the Energy Balance is not based solely on the energy data that are available at the time it is produced; extensive portions of the early Balance (such as those covering final energy consumption) are also based on formal forecasting procedures (models).  
 + 
 +Details on the approach used in preparing the early estimate of the German Energy Balance are provided in the UBA study “Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen” (“Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories”) from Buttermann & Nieder (2023) [(BUTTERMANN2023)].
  
 The most-current early estimate of the Energy Balance for the 2022 reporting year will be provided to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on 15 February 2023. The most-current early estimate of the Energy Balance for the 2022 reporting year will be provided to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on 15 February 2023.
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 https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2030/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2021-2030, Köln & Berlin, 2025)] https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/daten-und-fakten/bilanzen-1990-bis-2030/?wpv-jahresbereich-bilanz=2021-2030, Köln & Berlin, 2025)]
 [(AGEB2003> AGEB, 2003: Energiebilanzen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Jahre 1990-1999. Frankfurt a. M.: Verlags- und Wirtschaftsgesellschaft der Elektrizitätswerke. )] [(AGEB2003> AGEB, 2003: Energiebilanzen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Jahre 1990-1999. Frankfurt a. M.: Verlags- und Wirtschaftsgesellschaft der Elektrizitätswerke. )]
-[(AGEB2020> AGEB, 2020: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2018.html, Köln & Berlin, 2020.)]+[(AGEB2021> AGEB (2021): Germany's Energy Balance – required revisions (Revisionsbedarf in der Energiebilanz Deutschland): special report of the Working Group on Energy Balances (AGEB), https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AGEB_InfoAusgabe-3-2023.pdf; 2021)]
 [(BAFA2024> BAFA (2024): Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Infothek zu den Amtlichen Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;  [(BAFA2024> BAFA (2024): Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Infothek zu den Amtlichen Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; 
 URL: https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc, Eschborn, 2024.)]  URL: https://www.bafa.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Infothek/Infothek_Sucheinstieg_Rechtsgrundlagen_Formular.html?nn=1468600&sortOrder=dateOfIssue_dt+desc, Eschborn, 2024.)] 
 +[(DESTATIS2025> Destatis (2025): Federal Statsitical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt - Destatis):Quality Reports (Qualitätsberichte: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Methoden/Qualitaet/Qualitaetsberichte/Energie/einfuehrung.html, Wiesbaden, 2025)]
  
 +[(BUTTERMANN2023> Buttermann, H.-G. & Nieder, Th. (2023): Pilot project on the early estimate of the 2020 Energy Balance, and comparison with later defined data inventories (Pilotprojekt zur Frühschätzung der Energiebilanz 2020 - Berechnung einer vorläufigen Version der Energiebilanz zum Berichtsjahr 2020 und Vergleich zu späteren definierten Datenständen);
 +https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/texte_18-2023_pilotprojekt_zur_fruehschaetzung_der_energiebilanz_2020.pdf; UBA-Texte 18/2023 on order of the Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau, Januar 2023)]