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general:projections:calculation_documentation [2025/03/31 13:25] – eisoldgeneral:projections:calculation_documentation [2025/04/03 13:01] (current) – eisold
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 In the scenario “with measures” (WM), for the majority of the emission sources in the sectors 1.A.1 (energy industry), 1.A.2 (manufacturing industry), 1.A.4 (other combustion systems), 1.A.5 (military), 1.B (diffuse emissions from fuels), 2 (industrial processes) and 5 (waste and wastewater treatment) projected development of the activity rates is based on the with existing measures scenario (MMS=WEM) of the ‘Treibhausgas-Projektion 2024 für Deutschland’. The MMS of the 2024 GHG emission projections for Germany includes all climate protection-relevant measures and instruments adopted by July 31, 2023. In the scenario “with measures” (WM), for the majority of the emission sources in the sectors 1.A.1 (energy industry), 1.A.2 (manufacturing industry), 1.A.4 (other combustion systems), 1.A.5 (military), 1.B (diffuse emissions from fuels), 2 (industrial processes) and 5 (waste and wastewater treatment) projected development of the activity rates is based on the with existing measures scenario (MMS=WEM) of the ‘Treibhausgas-Projektion 2024 für Deutschland’. The MMS of the 2024 GHG emission projections for Germany includes all climate protection-relevant measures and instruments adopted by July 31, 2023.
  
-In contrast to this comprehensive projection of activity data, transport emissions are calculated using the TREMOD model ("Transport Emission Model"). To estimate the future development of transport-related energy consumption and emissions, a trend scenario up to 2050 was developed, which is updated annually. Version 6.53 of TREMOD formed the basis for the current emission projections (see Allekotte et al., 2024((https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/aktualisierung-tremodtremod-mm-ermittlung-der))). Therefore, road transport measures from the WAM scenario of the German NAPCP 2023((https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2023/general/projections/wam-scenario)), including the expansion of the truck toll system and a package of measures to promote electromobility, which have since been implemented, become part of the trend scenario. Beyond the trend scenario, findings from ongoing work for the upcoming HBEFA 5.1 update (Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport((https://www.hbefa.net/))), such as an increase in the implied emission factors for trucks and coaches with Euro V and VI due to defective or manipulated exhaust aftertreatment systems were considered((https://ermes-group.eu/sites/default/files/2024-12/1.2_Hausberger.pdf)) in the current WM scenario. In addition, the introduction of Euro 7 on the basis of Regulation (EU) 2024/1257 was considered in the WM scenario, leading to further decline of implied emission factors of the fleet, especially beyond 2030. Furthermore, assumptions about emissions from road abrasion as well as tyre and brake wear from electrically driven mileage were included according to EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2023((https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2023)). In order to reflect the Euro 7 Regulation also regarding particle emissions from tyre and brake wear the emission factors of the historical emissions were further adjusted for the emission projections.+In contrast to this comprehensive projection of activity data, transport emissions are calculated using the TREMOD model ("Transport Emission Model"). To estimate the future development of transport-related energy consumption and emissions, a trend scenario up to 2050 was developed, which is updated annually. Version 6.53 of TREMOD formed the basis for the current emission projections (see Allekotte et al., 2024((https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/aktualisierung-tremodtremod-mm-ermittlung-der))). Therefore, road transport measures from the WAM scenario of the German NAPCP 2023((https://iir.umweltbundesamt.de/2023/general/projections/wam-scenario)), including the expansion of the truck toll system and a package of measures to promote electromobility, which have since been implemented, become part of the trend scenario. Beyond the trend scenario, findings from ongoing work for the upcoming HBEFA 5.1 update (Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport((https://www.hbefa.net/))), such as an increase in the implied emission factors for trucks and coaches with Euro V and VI due to defective or manipulated exhaust aftertreatment systems were considered((https://ermes-group.eu/sites/default/files/2024-12/1.2_Hausberger.pdf)) in the current WM scenario. In addition, the introduction of Euro 7 on the basis of Regulation (EU) 2024/1257 was considered in the WM scenario, leading to further decline of implied emission factors of the fleet, especially beyond 2030. Those additional assumptions are documented in Allekotte et al. (2025)((not yet published, (Link will be added as soon as the report is published.) )). Furthermore, assumptions about emissions from road abrasion as well as tyre and brake wear from electrically driven mileage were included according to EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2023((https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2023)). In order to reflect the Euro 7 Regulation also regarding particle emissions from tyre and brake wear the emission factors of the historical emissions were further adjusted for the emission projections.
  
 The projection for the agricultural sector (NFR 3) was created by the Thünen Institute (TI) using the py-GAS-EM reporting model twofold, once based on the inventory submission 2024 and the MMS (WEM, with existing measures) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and once based on the current inventory submission 2025 and the MMS (WEM, with existing measures) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2025 für Deutschland”((see chapter 6 for agriculture: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/11850/publikationen/projektionen-2025-zentrale-annahmen.pdf)). For both projections, the most important input data for the calculation of the agricultural emissions (animal numbers, animal performance, mineral fertilizer use) were derived for the first time using the CAPRI model, based on the current Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034 (2024)((https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn068888.pdf)). Further assumptions for the sector agriculture were assumed as in the WM scenario of the German NAPCP 2023 and are described below for the year 2030. The projection for the agricultural sector (NFR 3) was created by the Thünen Institute (TI) using the py-GAS-EM reporting model twofold, once based on the inventory submission 2024 and the MMS (WEM, with existing measures) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and once based on the current inventory submission 2025 and the MMS (WEM, with existing measures) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2025 für Deutschland”((see chapter 6 for agriculture: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/11850/publikationen/projektionen-2025-zentrale-annahmen.pdf)). For both projections, the most important input data for the calculation of the agricultural emissions (animal numbers, animal performance, mineral fertilizer use) were derived for the first time using the CAPRI model, based on the current Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034 (2024)((https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn068888.pdf)). Further assumptions for the sector agriculture were assumed as in the WM scenario of the German NAPCP 2023 and are described below for the year 2030.
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 The proportion of the share of liquid manure spread using injection and slot technology was extrapolated based on the increasing trend between 2010 and 2020. The proportion of the share of liquid manure spread using injection and slot technology was extrapolated based on the increasing trend between 2010 and 2020.
  
-The use of manure in biogas plants is statically updated based on the year 2021. An increase in the amount of slurry in biogas plants is part of the WAM scenario. The use of energy crops in biogas plants was assumed to be declining, as described in the Thünen Baseline 2022-2032. The quantities of the Thünen baseline reported for the year 2032 are transferred to the year 2030 using linear interpolation. This corresponds to a reduction in the amount of energy crops used compared to 2020 of around 59 % based on the nitrogen contained.+The use of manure in biogas plants is statically updated based on the year 2023. The use of energy crops in biogas plants was assumed to be declining, as described in the Thünen Baseline 2024-2034. This corresponds to a reduction in the amount of energy crops used in 2030 compared to 2023 of around 61 % based on the nitrogen contained (and to a reduction of 80 % for the projection year 2035).
  
-With the assumptions described above, a significant reduction of ammonia emissions compared to the emissions reported for 2020 will be achieved by 2030. In addition, potential emission reductions as a result of the new version of the first general administrative regulation for the Federal Immission Control Act (Technical Instructions for Air Pollution Control - TA Luft)((http://www.verwaltungsvorschriften-im-internet.de/bsvwvbund_18082021_IGI25025005.htm)), which came into force on December 1<sup>st</sup>, 2021, were evaluated. In total, this results in a buffer of 7.4 kt in the WM scenario for complying with the reduction obligation for ammonia in 2030. The assumed reduction effects through the TA-Luft are divided into three sub-areas.+With the assumptions described above, a significant reduction of ammonia emissions compared to the current annual emissions will be achieved by 2030. For the WM projection based on inventory submission 2025 a buffer of roughly 16 kt results for 2030 (for the current WM projection based on inventory submission 2024 there would be no buffer without the further assumptions described below). 
 + 
 +In addition, potential emission reductions as a result of the new version of the first general administrative regulation for the Federal Immission Control Act (Technical Instructions for Air Pollution Control - TA Luft)((http://www.verwaltungsvorschriften-im-internet.de/bsvwvbund_18082021_IGI25025005.htm)), which came into force on December 1<sup>st</sup>, 2021, were evaluated. These bring about a reduction effect of a further 11.8 kt of ammonia in 2030. In total, this results in a buffer of roughly 28 kt in the current WM scenario based on inventory submission 2025 for complying with the reduction obligation for ammonia in 2030 (or roughly 11 kt in the current WM projection based on inventory submission 2024). The assumed reduction effects through the TA-Luft are divided into three sub-areas.
     * For farms falling in the category ‚G‘ (according to Annex 1 of the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV for keeping or rearing of sows, fattening pigs, piglets, laying hens, pullets and broilers) it was assumed that the current status of air scrubber systems for pigs remains constant (with a reduction performance of 80 %) and that the current status for poultry increases slightly (with a reduction performance of 70 %). For almost the entire remaining stock of the respective animal category in G-systems, it was assumed that 40 % of the emissions in the barn are reduced by further system-integrated measures. This can be achieved, for example, with a less effective air scrubber system or other technical measures in animal housing. These assumptions are conservative since they only reflect the minimum requirements with regard to emission reductions according to the current legal situation and implementation practice. The TA Luft prescribes the cleaning of the exhaust air as state of the art for new systems. This also applies to existing systems – with various transitional periods – unless retrofitting is not proportionate or technically possible. In this case, other mitigation measures must be implemented. Alternatively, the TA Luft enables the use of quality-assured housing facilities that demonstrably serve animal welfare and, if designed appropriately (e.g. animal-friendly, emission-optimized outdoor climate stable), at the same time achieve relevant emission reductions that are quantitatively specified in the TA Luft. It is currently not possible to reliably estimate what proportion of the existing systems can be retrofitted with air scrubbing systems and what proportion of the new construction or replacement construction will take the form of quality-assured, animal-friendly and emission-optimized husbandry systems. Therefore, for the entire (heterogeneous) group, only the minimum achievable reductions when implementing the legal requirements were initially assumed in the sense of a conservative total analysis.     * For farms falling in the category ‚G‘ (according to Annex 1 of the 4<sup>th</sup> BImSchV for keeping or rearing of sows, fattening pigs, piglets, laying hens, pullets and broilers) it was assumed that the current status of air scrubber systems for pigs remains constant (with a reduction performance of 80 %) and that the current status for poultry increases slightly (with a reduction performance of 70 %). For almost the entire remaining stock of the respective animal category in G-systems, it was assumed that 40 % of the emissions in the barn are reduced by further system-integrated measures. This can be achieved, for example, with a less effective air scrubber system or other technical measures in animal housing. These assumptions are conservative since they only reflect the minimum requirements with regard to emission reductions according to the current legal situation and implementation practice. The TA Luft prescribes the cleaning of the exhaust air as state of the art for new systems. This also applies to existing systems – with various transitional periods – unless retrofitting is not proportionate or technically possible. In this case, other mitigation measures must be implemented. Alternatively, the TA Luft enables the use of quality-assured housing facilities that demonstrably serve animal welfare and, if designed appropriately (e.g. animal-friendly, emission-optimized outdoor climate stable), at the same time achieve relevant emission reductions that are quantitatively specified in the TA Luft. It is currently not possible to reliably estimate what proportion of the existing systems can be retrofitted with air scrubbing systems and what proportion of the new construction or replacement construction will take the form of quality-assured, animal-friendly and emission-optimized husbandry systems. Therefore, for the entire (heterogeneous) group, only the minimum achievable reductions when implementing the legal requirements were initially assumed in the sense of a conservative total analysis.
  
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 ===== General assumptions ===== ===== General assumptions =====
  
-The emission inventory aims to record the true emissions of all German emission sources. For emission projections the future emission sources are often not yet existing and true emissions cannot be measured already. Emission projections for power plants, for example, are therefore estimated using regulatory limit values. Because emission limit values in the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and in the accompanying BAT conclusions are usually given in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>, a conversion into kg/TJ is necessary to multiply emission factors with activity rates (fuel use). Table 1 shows an example of the conversion factors for NO<sub>X</sub> (Rentz et al., 2002)((Rentz, O., Karl, U., Peter. H. (2002): Determination and evaluation of emission factors for combustion installations in Germany for the years 1995, 2000 and 2010, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr.299 43 142.)) which are used to convert mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> into kg/TJ for the regulations under consideration. For each relevant pollutant, a fuel-specific conversion factor is given, taking into account the reference oxygen content in percent.+The emission inventory aims to record the true emissions of all German emission sources. For emission projections the future emission sources are often not yet existing and true emissions cannot be measured already. Emission projections for power plants, for example, are therefore estimated using regulatory limit values. Because emission limit values in the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and in the accompanying BAT conclusions are usually given in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>, a conversion into kg/TJ is necessary to multiply emission factors with activity rates (fuel use). Table 4 shows an example of the conversion factors for NO<sub>X</sub> (Rentz et al., 2002)((Rentz, O., Karl, U., Peter. H. (2002): Determination and evaluation of emission factors for combustion installations in Germany for the years 1995, 2000 and 2010, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr.299 43 142.)) which are used to convert mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> into kg/TJ for the regulations under consideration. For each relevant pollutant, a fuel-specific conversion factor is given, taking into account the reference oxygen content in percent.
  
  
-__Table 1: Fuel-specific conversion factors for air pollutants according to Rentz et al. (2002)__+__Table 4: Fuel-specific conversion factors for air pollutants according to Rentz et al. (2002)__
 ^  Pollutant ^  Fuel         ^  Reference oxygen content 3 % ^  Reference oxygen content 6 % ^  Reference oxygen content 11 %  ^  Reference oxygen content 15 %  ^ ^  Pollutant ^  Fuel         ^  Reference oxygen content 3 % ^  Reference oxygen content 6 % ^  Reference oxygen content 11 %  ^  Reference oxygen content 15 %  ^
 | NO<sub>X</sub> | Hard coal |       | 2.75        |                        | | | NO<sub>X</sub> | Hard coal |       | 2.75        |                        | |