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general:projections:introduction [2025/03/21 14:11] – eisoldgeneral:projections:introduction [2025/03/31 13:12] (current) – eisold
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-====== Introduction ======+===== Introduction =====
  
-===== Context =====+==== Context ====
  
 Reliable data on historic emissions are key to the political process and to decisions on abatement technology promotion. However, future emission paths also do have the power to shed a new light on these discussions. Therefore, greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants are inventoried and projected in the same database system using the same structure of detailed time series. Reliable data on historic emissions are key to the political process and to decisions on abatement technology promotion. However, future emission paths also do have the power to shed a new light on these discussions. Therefore, greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants are inventoried and projected in the same database system using the same structure of detailed time series.
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-===== Policies =====+==== Policies ====
  
 For the past years, climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been an important issue in society and politics. GHG emission inventories have seen a lot of attention as a consequence. However, there have also been a couple of air pollution related headlines, including "diesel gate" and particulate matter concentrations caused by residential wood burning. In Germany, these discussions have led to a number of legislative projects and new regulations which have the power to significantly change emission levels. Thus, projections generally show a further decline in emissions. Some main policy drivers are listed and contextualized below: For the past years, climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been an important issue in society and politics. GHG emission inventories have seen a lot of attention as a consequence. However, there have also been a couple of air pollution related headlines, including "diesel gate" and particulate matter concentrations caused by residential wood burning. In Germany, these discussions have led to a number of legislative projects and new regulations which have the power to significantly change emission levels. Thus, projections generally show a further decline in emissions. Some main policy drivers are listed and contextualized below:
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     * Transport     * Transport
-      * new vehicle regulations (e. g. Emission Performance Regulation (EU) 2019/631, Euro 7 Regulation (EU) 2024/1257)+      * new vehicle regulations (e. g. Emission Performance Regulation (EU) 2019/631 [(EU2019)] , Euro 7 Regulation (EU) 2024/1257 [(EU2024)]
       * increasing share of electric vehicles, increasing shift to public transport       * increasing share of electric vehicles, increasing shift to public transport
  
     * Agriculture     * Agriculture
       * Amendments of the "Düngeverordnung" (fertiliser ordinance) in 2017 and 2020 as well as other legislative and incentive measures to reduce fertiliser use, increase the nitrogen use efficiency and increase the share of low emission application techniques.       * Amendments of the "Düngeverordnung" (fertiliser ordinance) in 2017 and 2020 as well as other legislative and incentive measures to reduce fertiliser use, increase the nitrogen use efficiency and increase the share of low emission application techniques.
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 +[(EU2019> (EU) 2019/631: Regulation (EU) 2019/631 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and for new light commercial vehicles, and repealing Regulations (EC) No 443/2009 and (EU) No 510/2011 (recast); http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2019/631/oj )]
 +[(EU2024> (EU) 2024/1257: Regulation (EU) 2024/1257 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 April 2024 on type-approval of motor vehicles and engines and of systems, components and separate technical units intended for such vehicles, with respect to their emissions and battery durability (Euro 7), amending Regulation (EU) 2018/858 of the European Parliament and of the Council and repealing Regulations (EC) No 715/2007 and (EC) No 595/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Commission Regulation (EU) No 582/2011, Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/1151, Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/2400 and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/1362; http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1257/oj )]