Chapter 9 - Projections

In May 2019, Germany published its first National Air Pollution Control Programme (NAPCP 2019) under the revised NEC directive (EU) 2016/2284. According to Article 6 (3) of the Directive, the NAPCP must be reported in an updated version at least every four years. In this context, Germany published a draft NAPCP on June 7^th, 2023. Corresponding emission projections were reported to the central data repository of the European Environment Agency (EEA) on May 2^nd, 2023 under the CLRTAP and the NEC directive, presenting both the “with measures” (WM) and the “with additional measures” (WAM) preliminary scenarios as defined in the draft NAPCP 2023 mentioned above. The second German National Air Pollution Control Programme (NAPCP 2023) was passed by the federal government and published in May 2024, consistent with the previously reported projections. According to Article 8 (6) of the EU Directive 2016/2284, these projections must be updated and reported every two years. Emission projections under the CLRTAP are fully aligned with the reporting presented in the context of the NEC directive.

As negotiations within the German government on the final NAPCP were still ongoing at the end of 2023, the IIR 2023 presents the projection details of the draft NAPCP from June 2023 consistent with the reported emission projections in 2023. Updated emission projections were reported on March 14^th, 2025 under the (CLRTAP) and the (NEC directive), presenting both the “with measures” (WM) and the “with additional measures” (WAM) scenarios. The IIR 2025 projections chapter describes all assumptions and methodology of those emission projections. Current projections are based on emission inventory submission 2024. In addition, because of relevant recalculations in ammonia emissions of the agricultural sector (NFR 3) within emission inventory submission 2025 (see Chapter 8.1 - Recalculations), a second dataset was submitted containing only ammonia emission projections in the “with measures” (WM) scenario based on emission inventory submission 2025 under otherwise identical assumptions.

Based on the emissions inventory submission 2024 these results can be summarized as follows:

Based on the emissions inventory submission 2025 the recalculated results for ammonia can be summarized as follows:

Modelling different scenarios in our database, we finally calculated the following numbers for Germany's emissions in 2030:

With these numbers, Germany will meet its reduction commitments for all pollutants in 2030 in both scenarios.

The following figures show the developments for each pollutant in the WM and WAM scenarios (WAM only for NO_X and PM_2.5 as there are no differences between both scenarios for all other pollutants). In addition, the reduction commitments for 2020 to 2029 and from 2030 onwards as well as the indicative linear reduction path are shown. Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and 2050. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed, but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.

Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.

Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.

Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.

Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.

Please note that projected emissions were only calculated for the years 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. A linear reduction in the years between cannot be assumed but is shown in the graphs just for illustrative reasons.