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--- general:projections:wam-scenario [2025/04/01 14:34] – eisold
+++ general:projections:wam-scenario [2025/04/04 12:51] (current) – eisold
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 === Additional measures that have not yet been implemented are assigned to the WAM scenario===
-{{ :wiki:imgbin_under-construction-png.png?1000 |
+**Optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV**
-}}
+The German Federal Government declared in its current NAPCP 2023, that an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV will be considered for solid (other than coal), liquid and biogenic fuels in case there is non-compliance with the reduction commitment for NO<sub>X</sub> projected. Because it is very difficult to define all solid (other than coal), liquid and biogenic fuel uses in installations falling under 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in the inventory database, as there is often not only one single fuel used in those installations or complex calculations for an overall emission limit value of all installations falling under one facility (e. g. for refineries) are necessary, only for three exemplary categories of installations a hypothetical NO<sub>X</sub> mitigation potential was quantified. This follows a conservative approach and does not anticipate any political decision. Thus, in the updated WAM scenario reported in 2025 mitigation potential is only assumed for 2035 at the earliest.
-**NO<sub>X</sub> reduction in pulp and paper production through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
-According to the existing 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV (as of 2017), different maximum amounts of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions are permitted according to the production process (sulphate and sulphite process) and the size of the plant (measured in RTI in MW) in pulp and paper production. An optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV would result in reductions in the emission factor in the NFR sector 2.H.1.
+    * **potential NO<sub>X</sub> reduction in pulp and paper production through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
-It is assumed for the sulphite process that all four plants > 50 MW located in Germany are operated with RTI of 50-300 MW. In the sense of a conservative estimate of the reduction potential, a maximum current emission factor of 300 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> for all plants according to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV is assumed for the further calculation of the reduction potential. The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor for the sulphite process will be taken over from the 2022 submission in 2020, which is 2 kg/t. The new emission factor results from the current emission factor (2 kg/t) and the maximum emission value proposed in the amendment (85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>) divided by the calculated mean value of the currently applicable law (300 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>). This results in an emission factor of 0.57 kg/t for 2025, 2030 and 2035 as shown in (6).
+According to the existing 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV (as of 2021), different maximum amounts of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions are permitted according to the production process (sulphate and sulphite process) and the size of the plant (measured in RTI in MW) in pulp and paper production (NFR sector 2.H.1).
-    (6) NOx emission factor (sulphite process) = (2 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm^3) / 300 mg/Nm^3 = 0.57 kg/t
+It is assumed for the sulfite process that all plants located in Germany are operated with an RTI of 50-300 MW. A maximum emission factor of 300 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> for all plants according to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV is assumed for the further calculation of the reduction potential. The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor for the sulfite process was taken over from the 2024 submission in the year 2010, which is 2 kg/t. The new emission factor results from the historic emission factor (2 kg/t) and the maximum emission value proposed for the optional amendment (85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>) divided by the calculated mean value of the currently applicable law (300 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>). This results in an emission factor of 0.57 kg/t for 2035 onwards as shown in (5).
-In the field of the sulphate process there are two plants > 50 MW with different boiler sizes in Germany. To calculate the reduction potential, the percentage distribution of the two plants per boiler size was calculated according to a combustion heat output in the range of 100-300 MW and more than 300 MW over all time series (2006 to 2018). For this purpose, the emission values of the individual years for the individual location or the individual plant are divided by the annual activity of both plants for each considered time series. The data basis for the calculation is the 2022 submission. This results in the estimates of the proportionate use of the various plant sizes for the past years up to 2018 with the plant-size-specific maximum emissions according to the daily mean value with 250 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> for the plant with a thermal output of 100-300 MW and 200 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> for the plant with more than 300 MW. The mean value of the current NO<sub>X</sub> emissions from the sulphate process results from the sum of the maximum permitted emissions per boiler size multiplied by the current proportionate NO<sub>X</sub> emissions. Equation (7) indicates the calculation.
+    (5) implied NOx emission factor (sulfite process) = (2 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm³) / 300 mg/Nm³ = 0.57 kg/t
+In the field of the sulfate process (also known as kraft process) a weighted maximum average emission factor according to the limit values of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV was assumed as shown in equation (6).
-    (7) implied NOx emission factor (sulphate process) = 0.36 t/a * 250 mg/Nm^3 + 0.64 t/a * 200 mg/Nm^3 = 217.78 mg/Nm^3
+    (6) implied NOx emission factor (sulfate process) = 0.36 * 250 mg/Nm³ + 0.64 * 200 mg/Nm³ = 217.78 mg/N³
-The implied emission factor for the sulphate process will be taken over from the 2022 submission in 2020. The new emission factor results from the emission factor according to the current status and the maximum emission value proposed in the optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV divided by the calculated mean value of the applicable law. This results in an emission factor of 0.68 kg/t for 2025 to 2040, as shown in equation (8).
+The implied emission factor for the sulphate process was taken over from the 2024 submission in the year 2010. The new emission factor results from dividing the 2010 emission factor and the maximum emission value proposed for the optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV by the calculated mean value of the currently applicable law. This results in an emission factor of 0.68 kg/t for 2035 onwards as shown in equation (7).
-    (8) implied NOx emission factor (sulphate process) = (1.75 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm^3) / 217.78 mg/Nm3 = 0.68 kg/t
+    (7) implied NOx emission factor (sulfate process) = (1.75 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm³) / 217.78 mg/Nm³ = 0.68 kg/t
-**NO<sub>X</sub> reduction in refineries through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
+    * **potential NO<sub>X</sub> reduction in refineries through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
-An optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV would lead to emission reductions in the area of refineries and is assigned to the WAM scenario. It causes a reduction in the emission factors in the affected time series of the NFR sector 1.A.1.b. A distinction must be made between refinery plants and the fuel input used by them. For plants using raw petrol (naphtha), light heating oil or other petroleum products, the proposed NO<sub>X</sub> limit value is set to 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and adopted as the maximum emission level. When using heavy fuel oil, there is a so-called bell-rule applicable for the plants, whereby individual parts of the plant are allowed to exceed the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> if other parts of the plant fall below the limit value and the plant emission is on annual average not above the limit value.
+An optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV would lead to emission reductions in the area of refineries and is assigned to the WAM scenario. It causes a reduction in the emission factors in the affected time series of the NFR sector 1.A.1.b. A distinction must be made between refinery plants and the fuel input used by them. For plants using crude oil (naphtha), light heating oil or other petroleum products, the proposed NO<sub>X</sub> limit value is set to 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and adopted as the future maximum emission level. Some refineries in Germany get permission by applying a so-called bell rule, whereby individual parts of the plant are allowed to exceed fuel specific limit values, if the facility in total for all installations and used fuels complies with an average limit value calculated with the help of a so-called bell curve.
-For plants using raw petrol (naphtha), light heating oil or other petroleum products as fuel, the new maximum emission level corresponds to the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> NO<sub>X</sub>. Consequently, only the conversion factor of the specific flue gas volume for heavy fuel oil or light heating oil (Table 1) has to be used to convert to kg/TJ NO<sub>X</sub>. The conversion is carried out for all source groups as shown in (9) using the example of refinery underfiring in LCP with light heating oil as fuel.
+For plants where a future limit value of 85 mg NO<sub>X</sub>/Nm<sup>3</sup> is assumed, conversion factors based on specific flue gas volumes for heavy fuel oil or light heating oil (Table 4) were used to convert to kg NO<sub>X</sub>/TJ, shown in equation (8) for the example of refinery underfiring in LCP with light heating oil as fuel.
-    (9) implied NOx emission factor (refinery underfiring with light heating oil) = 85 mg/Nm^3 / 3.49 = 24.4 kg/TJ
+    (8) implied NOx emission factor (refinery underfiring with light heating oil) = 85 mg/Nm³ / 3.49 = 24.4 kg/TJ
-This results in NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors of 24.4 kg/TJ for light heating oil and 25.1 kg/TJ for other petroleum products for 2025 to 2040.
+This results in future NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors of 24.4 kg/TJ for light heating oil and 25.1 kg/TJ for other petroleum products from 2035 onwards.
-For a total of twelve plants with heavy fuel oil as fuel input the bell-rule is applied. First of all, the emission limit value according to the current 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and its specific RTI is assigned to each plant and the mean value is calculated across all plants (274.75 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>). The bell-rule allows parts of plants to exceed the maximum emission level if another part of the plant emits proportionally less. The estimated percentage reduction, taking into account the bell-rule, is calculated as shown in (10) by setting the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> NO<sub>X</sub> in relation to the mean value of the current emission limit values.
+For all plants that are assumed to use permission by applying the so-called bell rule, the potential effect of integrating a NO<sub>X</sub> limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> for a part of the fuels used in such plants was quantified by estimating a relative reduction. Therefore, it was assumed that the current mean emission factor for one exemplary refinery permitted by using the so-called bell rule is 274.75 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. The application of the proposed future limit value for all solid (other than coal), liquid and biogenic fuels used in this plant will lead to a mean emission factor of this specific refinery of 189.75 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. This results in a relative reduction of 69 percent, as shown in equation (9)
-    (10) percentage NOx emission reduction (refineries) = 1 - (85 mg/Nm^3 / 274.75 mg/Nm^3) = 0.69
+    (9) percentage NOx emission reduction (specific refinery) = 1 - (189.75 mg/Nm³ / 274.75 mg/Nm³) = 0.69
-A calculated reduction of approximate 69 per cent is assumed for the bell. The projected emission factors for the concerned source categories for 2025 to 2040 are now derived from the current emission factor of the source category under consideration from the 2022 submission minus the proportional reduction.
+This exemplary relative reduction was than assumed to apply for all refineries permitted by using the so-called bell rule from 2035 onwards. Therefore, the current emission factor in the inventory out of submission 2024 is multiplied with this relative reduction. As an example, the resulting emission factor applied from 2035 onwards for refinery underfiring with heavy fuel oil is shown in equation (10).
-The conversion is carried out in the same way for all source groups as shown in (11) for the refinery underfiring in LCP with light heating oil as fuel.
+    (10) NOx emission (refinery underfiring with heavy fuel oil) = 118 kg/TJ * (1 - 0.69) = 36.5 kg/TJ
-    (11) NOx emission (refinery underfiring with light heating oil) = [400 mg/Nm^3 * (1 - 0.69)] / 3.39 = 36.5 kg/TJ
+    * **potential NO<sub>X</sub> reductions in other large combustion plants through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
-**NO<sub>X</sub> reductions in other large combustion plants through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
+Emissions from other LCPs, which emerge from the energy balances and cannot be clearly assigned to a specific fuel use or fuel mix, but also show a reduction potential by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are assigned to the NFR sectors 1.A.1.a, 1.A.1.c and 1.A.2.g.viii and a potential reduction in the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors was estimated.
-Emissions from other LCPs, which emerge from the energy balances, but cannot be clearly assigned to a specific fuel use or fuel mix and also show a reduction potential by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are assigned to the NFR sector 1.A.1.c and a reduction in the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor was calculated.
+The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors for all non-gaseous materials other than coal for electricity and heat generation are considered and the maximum emission value for NO<sub>X</sub> is assumed to be 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> from 2035 onwards. According to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, only plants with more than 1,500 operating hours per year are taken into account for which the proposed limit value of 85 mg NO<sub>X</sub>/Nm<sup>3</sup> applies. Table 13 shows the estimated relative and absolute plant split of the LCP according to their annual operating time assuming an equal fuel use distribution.
-The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors for all non-gaseous materials other than coal for electricity and heat generation are considered and the maximum emission amount for NO<sub>X</sub> is assumed to be 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. According to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, only plants with more than 1500 operating hours per year are taken into account for which the new limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> NO<sub>X</sub> applies. Table 13 shows the estimated relative and absolute plant split of the LCP according to its annual operating time assuming an equal fuel use distribution.
 __Table 13: Estimated relative and absolute plant split of LCP according to annual operating hours__
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 | total	|  261563  |  100 %  |
-The emission factors will be recalculated for 2025 to 2040. First, the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> is converted into kg/TJ using the specific conversion factor (Table 1). The new emission factor results from the sum of the reduction for the 82.2 per cent of the fuel use with an operating time of more than 1500 h/a and the unchanged value from the 2022 submission for the 17.8 per cent of the fuel use with less than 1500 h/a operating time, that is not obliged to be reduced by the optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV.
+First, the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> is converted into kg/TJ using the fuel specific conversion factor (Table 4). The new emission factor results from the sum of the reduction for the 82.2 per cent of the fuel use with an operating time of more than 1500 h/a and the unchanged value from the 2024 submission for the 17.8 per cent of the fuel use with less than 1500 h/a operating time, that is assumed to be not effected by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV.
+The calculation is shown using the example of the source category of electricity generation in large public power plants using heavy fuel oil (reference value in 2022: 43.5 kg/TJ) in (11), whereby the procedure is analogous for all other source categories.
-The calculation is shown using the example of the source category of electricity generation in large industrial power plants using other liquid fuels (reference value in 2020: 42.5 kg/TJ) in (12), whereby the procedure is analogous for all other source categories.
+    (11) NOx emission factor (electricity generation in public power plants with heavy fuel oil) = (85 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 82.2 % + 43.5 kg/TJ * 17.8 % = 28.4 kg/TJ
-    (12) NOx emission factor (electricity generation in large industrial power plants) = (85 mg/Nm^3 / 3.39) * 82.2 % + 42.5 kg/TJ * 17.8 % = 28.2 kg/TJ
+**Emission reduction in small combustion installations by amending the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189:**
-**Emission reduction in small combustion installations by tightening the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189:**
+Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1189 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel boilers, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass boilers regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 2.5 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from 2027 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
-Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1189 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel boilers, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass boilers regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 2,5 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from January 1<sup>st</sup>, 2027 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
+Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1185 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel local space heaters, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass local space heaters regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 20 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from 2029 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
-Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1185 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel local space heaters, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass local space heaters regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 20 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from January 1<sup>st</sup>, 2029 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
+Considering these assumptions and the projected use of solid biomass in small combustion installations in the current WM scenario, a potential emission reduction of 0.8 kt PM<sub>2.5</sub> in 2030, of 1.3 kt in 2035 and of 1.8 kt in 2040 was quantified in the current WAM scenario. The absolute emission mitigation potential in 2030 and onwards very much depends on the projected biomass use as well as the year, when the proposed amendment will apply for new installations. The higher the use of solid biomass in the building sector is projected, the higher the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the Ecodesign requirements will be. Less stricter requirements regarding particle emissions in national policies (e. g. funding programmes) will increase the projected emissions in the WM scenario and thus, will also basically increase the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the EU ecodesign regulations.
-Considering these assumptions as well as the potentially increased biomass use described above, a potential emission reduction of 1.4 kt PM<sub>2.5</sub> in 2030 compared to the WM scenario in combination with a potentially increased biomass use in the building sector due to the proposed amendment of the building energy act (described above) was quantified. The absolute emission mitigation potential in 2030 depends on the projected biomass use as well as the year, when the proposed amendment applies for new installations. Less stricter requirements regarding particle emissions in the national law will basically increase the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the EU ecodesign regulations.
+Apart from that, an ambitious EU-wide regulation of PM emissions of small combustion installations will help a lot to comply with the PM<sub>2.5</sub> limit values of the new Ambient Air Quality Directive (EU) 2024/2881((http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/2881/oj)) as well as the average exposure reduction obligation for PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Otherwise, the use of solid biomass might have to be banned in certain areas or at least temporarily restricted.
 **Additional reduction in agriculture compared to the German NAPCP 2023:**
-For the emission projections submission 2025, in contrast to the emission projections submission 2023 as well as to the German NAPCP 2023, no further mitigation potential has been reported in the current WAM scenario regarding additional measures in the agricultural sector (NFR 3). The support measure to increase the co-fermentation of slurry in biogas production to further reduce GHG emissions of the agricultural sector has been stopped in 2024, and currently there is no other concrete measure under preparation. In addition, the support measure was not very effective due to low adoption rates in the first years until 2024. Therefore, no increase in co-digested slurry is expected above the assumptions in the WM scenario until 2030, and thus no increase of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions from digestates. Without an expected increase of emissions, and on the background of a buffer of roughly 11 (based on inventory submission 2024) respectively 28 kt NH<sub>3</sub> (based on inventory submission 2025) in the current WM scenario, no additional measures are necessary, and no specific WAM for NH<sub>3</sub> is calculated. The assumptions on co-fermentation of slurry in biogas production for the projections on greenhouse gas emissions (submission 2025) are documented in “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2025 für Deutschland”((see table 116, pages 115-116, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/11850/publikationen/projektionen_2025-instrumentenpapier_korr_2.pdf)).
+For the emission projections submission 2025, in contrast to the emission projections submission 2023 as well as to the German NAPCP 2023, no further mitigation potential has been reported in the current WAM scenario regarding additional measures in the agricultural sector (NFR 3). The support measure to increase the co-fermentation of slurry in biogas production to further reduce GHG emissions of the agricultural sector has been stopped in 2024, and currently there is no other concrete measure under preparation. In addition, the support measure was not very effective due to low adoption rates in the first years until 2024. Therefore, no increase in co-digested slurry is expected above the assumptions in the WM scenario until 2030, and thus no increase of NH<sub>3</sub> emissions from digestates. Without an expected increase of emissions, and on the background of a buffer of roughly 11 (based on inventory submission 2024) respectively 28 kt NH<sub>3</sub> (based on inventory submission 2025) in the current WM scenario in the year 2030, no additional measures are necessary, and no specific WAM for NH<sub>3</sub> is calculated. The assumptions on co-fermentation of slurry in biogas production for the projections on greenhouse gas emissions (submission 2025) are documented in “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2025 für Deutschland”((see table 116, pages 115-116, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/11850/publikationen/projektionen_2025-instrumentenpapier_korr_2.pdf)).
 In addition, the amount of ammonia emissions from the previous year will be checked annually in the future. This should be carried out for ammonia emissions from agriculture as part of the previous year's estimate of greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with Section 5 Paragraph 1 of the Federal Climate Protection Act. The previous year's estimate is based on current statistics on important activity data for the previous year (livestock, N-mineral fertiliser sales) and must be submitted annually by March 15<sup>th</sup>. If the ammonia emissions of the previous year's estimate are above the linear target path according to NEC Directive (EU) 2016/2284, the BMEL, in consultation with the BMUV, will develop a bundle of agricultural measures, that will assure compliance with the linear target path as soon as possible. Because of uncertainties in the emission projections a minimum gap of 10 kt is agreed. If the previous year’s estimate in the following year has again a gap of 10 kt or more, the bundle of agricultural measures enters into force immediately.

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