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general:projections:wam-scenario [2025/04/04 12:03] – eisoldgeneral:projections:wam-scenario [2025/04/04 12:51] (current) – eisold
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 === Additional measures that have not yet been implemented are assigned to the WAM scenario===    === Additional measures that have not yet been implemented are assigned to the WAM scenario===   
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 **Optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV** **Optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV**
  
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     * **potential NO<sub>X</sub> reductions in other large combustion plants through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**     * **potential NO<sub>X</sub> reductions in other large combustion plants through an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
  
-Emissions from other LCPs, which emerge from the energy balances, but cannot be clearly assigned to a specific fuel use or fuel mix and also show a reduction potential by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are assigned to the NFR sector 1.A.1.c and a reduction in the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor was calculated.+Emissions from other LCPs, which emerge from the energy balances and cannot be clearly assigned to a specific fuel use or fuel mix, but also show a reduction potential by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are assigned to the NFR sectors 1.A.1.a, 1.A.1.c and 1.A.2.g.viii and a potential reduction in the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors was estimated.
  
-The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors for all non-gaseous materials other than coal for electricity and heat generation are considered and the maximum emission amount for NO<sub>X</sub> is assumed to be 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. According to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, only plants with more than 1500 operating hours per year are taken into account for which the new limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> NO<sub>X</sub> applies. Table 13 shows the estimated relative and absolute plant split of the LCP according to its annual operating time assuming an equal fuel use distribution.+The NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors for all non-gaseous materials other than coal for electricity and heat generation are considered and the maximum emission value for NO<sub>X</sub> is assumed to be 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> from 2035 onwards. According to the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, only plants with more than 1,500 operating hours per year are taken into account for which the proposed limit value of 85 mg NO<sub>X</sub>/Nm<sup>3</sup> applies. Table 13 shows the estimated relative and absolute plant split of the LCP according to their annual operating time assuming an equal fuel use distribution.
  
 __Table 13: Estimated relative and absolute plant split of LCP according to annual operating hours__  __Table 13: Estimated relative and absolute plant split of LCP according to annual operating hours__ 
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 | total |  261563  |  100 %  | | total |  261563  |  100 %  |
  
-The emission factors will be recalculated for 2025 to 2040. First, the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> is converted into kg/TJ using the specific conversion factor (Table 1). The new emission factor results from the sum of the reduction for the 82.2 per cent of the fuel use with an operating time of more than 1500 h/a and the unchanged value from the 2022 submission for the 17.8 per cent of the fuel use with less than 1500 h/a operating time, that is not obliged to be reduced by the optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV. +First, the limit value of 85 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> is converted into kg/TJ using the fuel specific conversion factor (Table 4). The new emission factor results from the sum of the reduction for the 82.2 per cent of the fuel use with an operating time of more than 1500 h/a and the unchanged value from the 2024 submission for the 17.8 per cent of the fuel use with less than 1500 h/a operating time, that is assumed to be not effected by an optional amendment of the 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV.  
 + 
 +The calculation is shown using the example of the source category of electricity generation in large public power plants using heavy fuel oil (reference value in 2022: 43.5 kg/TJ) in (11), whereby the procedure is analogous for all other source categories.
  
-The calculation is shown using the example of the source category of electricity generation in large industrial power plants using other liquid fuels (reference value in 2020: 42.5 kg/TJ) in (12), whereby the procedure is analogous for all other source categories.+    (11) NOx emission factor (electricity generation in public power plants with heavy fuel oil) = (85 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 82.2 % + 43.5 kg/TJ * 17.8 % = 28.4 kg/TJ
  
-    (12) NOx emission factor (electricity generation in large industrial power plants) = (85 mg/Nm^3 / 3.39) * 82.2 % + 42.5 kg/TJ * 17.8 % = 28.2 kg/TJ+**Emission reduction in small combustion installations by amending the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189:**
  
-**Emission reduction in small combustion installations by tightening the emission limits of the Ecodesign Regulations (EU) 2015/1185 and (EU) 2015/1189:**+Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1189 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel boilers, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass boilers regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 2.5 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from 2027 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
  
-Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1189 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel boilers, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass boilers regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 2,5 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from January 1<sup>st</sup>, 2027 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).+Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1185 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel local space heaters, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass local space heaters regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 20 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from 2029 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).
  
-Through amendment of the Commission regulation (EU) 2015/1185 with regard to ecodesign requirements for solid fuel local space heaters, it was assumed that requirements for placing on the market and putting into service solid biomass local space heaters regarding emissions of particulate matter will be set at 20 mg/m<sup>3</sup> TSP from January 1<sup>st</sup>, 2029 (measured according to VDI 2066 Sheet 1, May 2021 edition and based on 13 % reference oxygen content).+Considering these assumptions and the projected use of solid biomass in small combustion installations in the current WM scenario, a potential emission reduction of 0.8 kt PM<sub>2.5</sub> in 2030, of 1.3 kt in 2035 and of 1.8 kt in 2040 was quantified in the current WAM scenario. The absolute emission mitigation potential in 2030 and onwards very much depends on the projected biomass use as well as the year, when the proposed amendment will apply for new installations. The higher the use of solid biomass in the building sector is projected, the higher the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the Ecodesign requirements will be. Less stricter requirements regarding particle emissions in national policies (e. g. funding programmes) will increase the projected emissions in the WM scenario and thus, will also basically increase the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the EU ecodesign regulations.
  
-Considering these assumptions as well as the potentially increased biomass use described above, a potential emission reduction of 1.4 kt PM<sub>2.5</sub> in 2030 compared to the WM scenario in combination with a potentially increased biomass use in the building sector due to the proposed amendment of the building energy act (described above) was quantified. The absolute emission mitigation potential in 2030 depends on the projected biomass use as well as the year, when the proposed amendment applies for new installations. Less stricter requirements regarding particle emissions in the national law will basically increase the mitigation potential of the proposed amendment of the EU ecodesign regulations.+Apart from that, an ambitious EU-wide regulation of PM emissions of small combustion installations will help a lot to comply with the PM<sub>2.5</sub> limit values of the new Ambient Air Quality Directive (EU) 2024/2881((http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/2881/oj)) as well as the average exposure reduction obligation for PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Otherwise, the use of solid biomass might have to be banned in certain areas or at least temporarily restricted.
  
 **Additional reduction in agriculture compared to the German NAPCP 2023:** **Additional reduction in agriculture compared to the German NAPCP 2023:**