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general:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 13:10] – eisoldgeneral:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 20:44] (current) – eisold
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 === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. === === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. ===
  
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 **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions:** **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions:**
  
-Measures for large combustion plants (LCP) that have already been implemented through the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV or do have future reduction effects from the existing regulations as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions are considered in the WM scenario. The amendment of the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, part of the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023, has been implemented on 13 February 2024 and future mitigation potential is estimated in the current WM scenario.+Measures for large combustion plants (LCP) that have already been implemented through the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV or do have future reduction effects from the existing regulations as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions are considered in the WM scenario. The amendment of the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, part of the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023, has been implemented on 13<sup>th</sup> February 2024 and future mitigation potential is estimated in the current WM scenario.
  
 The measures affect time series of NFR sectors under 1.A.1 and 1.A.2 and lead to a reduction in the emission factors. Potential mitigation effects emerge from BAT conclusions according to Directive 2010/75/EU (amended by Directive (EU) 2024/1785). If the current inventory submission 2024 shows that the emissions in the time series are already below the upper ends of the specified emission ranges and thus the statutory maximum limit values will be fulfilled, these will be updated unchanged. In the case of time series above the upper range, the maximum permitted annual limit values are used as a result of the measure in the sense of a conservative estimation and the emission factors of the pollutants for each source group are recalculated. The measures affect time series of NFR sectors under 1.A.1 and 1.A.2 and lead to a reduction in the emission factors. Potential mitigation effects emerge from BAT conclusions according to Directive 2010/75/EU (amended by Directive (EU) 2024/1785). If the current inventory submission 2024 shows that the emissions in the time series are already below the upper ends of the specified emission ranges and thus the statutory maximum limit values will be fulfilled, these will be updated unchanged. In the case of time series above the upper range, the maximum permitted annual limit values are used as a result of the measure in the sense of a conservative estimation and the emission factors of the pollutants for each source group are recalculated.
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 __Example 2__ __Example 2__
  
-According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31<sup>st</sup> of July 2017 on Conclusions on Best Available Techniques (BAT) according to Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for large combustion plants, the maximum permissible pollutant emission for NO<sub>X</sub> while using heavy fuel oil in plants < 100 MW is 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and in plants > 100 MW is 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> as yearly average for existing plants with more than 1500 operating hours per year (BAT 28). 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in the version of 2021 sets limit values for NO<sub>X</sub> as 270 ng/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with more than 1500 operating hours per year and 400 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with less than 1500 operating hours per year. For existing plants > 100 MW 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and for new plants > 100 MW 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> are set. The values are converted into kg/TJ according to the specific flue gas volume of heavy fuel oil (Table 4). Assuming a 50 % share of plants within each size class, lacking specific data, from 2030 onwards a projected implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor of 58.0 kg/TJ results after conversion as indicated in equation (2). +According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31<sup>st</sup> July 2017 on Conclusions on Best Available Techniques (BAT) according to Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for large combustion plants, the maximum permissible pollutant emission for NO<sub>X</sub> while using heavy fuel oil in plants < 100 MW is 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and in plants > 100 MW is 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> as yearly average for existing plants with more than 1500 operating hours per year (BAT 28). 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in the version of 2021 sets limit values for NO<sub>X</sub> as 270 ng/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with more than 1500 operating hours per year and 400 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with less than 1500 operating hours per year. For existing plants > 100 MW 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and for new plants > 100 MW 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> are set. The values are converted into kg/TJ according to the specific flue gas volume of heavy fuel oil (Table 4). Assuming a 50 % share of plants within each size class, lacking specific data, from 2030 onwards a projected implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor of 58.0 kg/TJ results after conversion as indicated in equation (2). 
  
-    (2) emission factor (heavy fuel oil) = (400 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 + (110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 = 58.0 kg/TJ.+    (2) emission factor (heavy fuel oil) = (400 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 + (110 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 = 58.0 kg/TJ.
  
-Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2020 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2025 and beyond. +Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2022 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2030 and beyond. The emission factor for 2025 was linearly interpolated between 2022 and 2030.
  
 __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__ __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__
  
-When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 1) is used for the assessment of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions, analogous to heavy fuel oil. +When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 4) is used for the assessment of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions, analogous to heavy fuel oil. 
  
-When calculating the potential SO<sub>2</sub> emissions from source group “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Fernheizwerken” and “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Kraftwerken” for other liquid fuels, a clear distinction is made in the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV between existing plants and new plants. The implied emission limit value of existing plants is 78.44 kg/TJ. It is assumed that by 2030 all plants will correspond to the latest technology and will therefore from 2030 onwards retain at least the limit value for new plants, estimated at 61.81 kg/TJ. Furthermore, it is assumed that a continuous renewal takes place, so that the mean value from 2020 and 2030 is calculated for 2025 (70.13 kg/TJ).+When calculating the potential SO<sub>2</sub> emissions from source group “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Fernheizwerken” and “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Kraftwerken” for other liquid fuels, a clear distinction is made in the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV between existing plants and new plants. The implied emission limit value of existing plants is 78.44 kg/TJ. It is assumed that by 2040 all plants will correspond to the latest technology and will therefore from 2040 onwards retain at least the limit value for new plants, estimated at 61.81 kg/TJ.
  
 **Reduction in large combustion plants burning lignite through the coal phase-out:** **Reduction in large combustion plants burning lignite through the coal phase-out:**
  
-The German Coal Power Generation Termination Act (“Kohleverstromungsbeendigungsgesetz”) from August 2020 stipulates to gradually phase out coal power plants burning lignite until 31<sup>st</sup> December 2038. The latest change in this law from December 2022 is part of the WAM scenario and is described there. +The German Coal Power Generation Termination Act (“Kohleverstromungsbeendigungsgesetz”) from August 2020, last modified in December 2023, stipulates to gradually phase out coal power plants burning lignite until 31<sup>st</sup> December 2038, in the Rhenish coalfields until 31<sup>st</sup> March 2030.
  
-Projection of the activity rates was taken from the “Projektionsbericht 2021 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 4.+However, the electricity market simulation assumes a market-driven coal exit until 2031. As a result, there is no further mitigation potential of an accelerated coal phase-out, as estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Projection of the activity rates was taken from the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 7.
  
-__Table 4: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (> 50 MW) according to the decommissioning path in the years 2018 to 2040__  +__Table 7: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (> 50 MW) according to the WEM scenario of the "Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland" in the years 2022 to 2040__  
-^ District   ^ Primary Energy Use 2018 ^ Primary Energy Use 2025 ^  Primary Energy Use 2030 ^  Primary Energy Use 2035 ^ Primary Energy Use 2040 ^+^ District   ^ Primary Energy Use 2022 ^ Primary Energy Use 2025 ^  Primary Energy Use 2030 ^  Primary Energy Use 2035 ^ Primary Energy Use 2040 ^
 |   ^ in TJ     ^   in TJ       ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ       ^ |   ^ in TJ     ^   in TJ       ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ       ^
-| Lausitz   | 470199     |      400372       |      194503          |      139239             |      0       | +| Lausitz   | 365,425     |      272,958       |      0          |      0             |      0       | 
-| Central Germany | 155146     |      177529       |      173767          |      109198             |      0       | +| Central Germany | 176,494     |      160,652       |      1,885          |      0             |      0       | 
-| Rhineland   | 675897     |      384178       |      190843          |      187791             |      0       | +| Rhineland   | 521,039     |      283,443       |      6,028          |      0             |      0       | 
-^ Total   ^ 1318381     ^      962079       ^      559113          ^      486228             ^      0       |+^ Total   ^ 1,062,958     ^      717,053       ^      7,913          ^      0             ^      0       |
  
-Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>X</sub> are therefore reassessed. When calculating the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors as a result of the phase-out, the districts of Central Germany, Lausitz and Rhineland are considered separately. The individual districts will be subdivided into their existing power plants. For each power plant, the total activity rate and the emission factors for NO<sub>X</sub> for the years 2004 to 2017 in TJ or kg/TJ according to the 2020 submission are adopted as data basis. In order to take into account fluctuations in the emission factors, the emission factors are averaged per plant over the last years, in which no new blocks went into operation (e.g. Block R of Boxberg IV in the Lausitz district started continuous operation in 2012). In addition, the mean value for all power plants in a district is calculated for the formation of the implied emission factor by weighting according to their activity rates. Hence, each district is assigned a current implied emission factor. With the shutdown of the last block of a power plant, this plant is considered to be shut down and from this point in time it is no longer included in the calculation of the implied emission factor of a specific district. This applies to the Schkopau power plants (Central Germany district) from 2035 onwards, to Jänschwalde, Boxberg III (both: Lausitz district) and Weisweiler (Rhineland district) from 2030 onwards. +Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>X</sub> are therefore reassessed. When calculating the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors as a result of the phase-out, the districts of Central Germany, Lausitz and Rhineland are considered separately. The individual districts will be subdivided into their existing power plants. For each power plant, the total activity rate and the emission factors for NO<sub>X</sub> for the years 2004 to 2017 in TJ or kg/TJ according to the 2020 submission are adopted as data basis. In order to take into account fluctuations in the emission factors, the emission factors are averaged per plant over the last years, in which no new blocks went into operation (e.g. Block R of Boxberg IV in the Lausitz district started continuous operation in 2012). In addition, the mean value for all power plants in a district is calculated for the formation of the implied emission factor by weighting according to their activity rates. Hence, each district is assigned a current implied emission factor. With the shutdown of the last block of a power plant, this plant is considered to be shut down and from this point in time it is no longer included in the calculation of the implied emission factor of a specific district. 
  
 **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and funding programmes:** **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and funding programmes:**
  
-Reductions of dust emissions from small combustion installations are achieved in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV. The calculation of the future emission factors is based on the projection of the "Energiewende" scenario (EWS) from Tebert et al. (2016)((Tebert, C., Volz, F., Töfke, K. (2016): Development and update of emission factors for the National Inventory regarding small and medium-size combustion plants of households and small consumers, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3712 42 313 2)), while the current underlying projection is containing a greater use of solid biomass in 2030 than the EWS. The developments in the area of small combustion installations, in particular the development of fuel use and the existing plant inventory, are difficult to assess and emission calculation is fraught with uncertainties. According to expert assessments, with an increase of solid biomass use the implied emission factor will further decrease as the share of newer and cleaner installations will go up. Therefore, the projected implied emission factors based on the EWS used here are expected to be conservative.+The amendment of the Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz – GEG) of 16<sup>th</sup> October 2023 was assumed to further incentivise the use of solid biomass for heat generation in the building sector. Hence, potential increase in PM emissions was estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Estimation of the potential effects of the GEG was incorporated in the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and is therefore part of the current WM scenario.  
 + 
 +On the other hand, reductions of dust emission factors from small combustion installations are assumed in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV flanked by several funding programmes, last the “Bundesförderung effiziente Gebäude” (BEG)((https://www.energiewechsel.de/KAENEF/Redaktion/DE/FAQ/FAQ-Uebersicht/Richtlinien/bundesfoerderung-fuer-effiziente-gebaeude-beg.html)). The calculation of the future emission factors is based on the projection of the "Energiewende" scenario (EWS) from Tebert et al. (2016)((Tebert, C., Volz, F., Töfke, K. (2016): Development and update of emission factors for the National Inventory regarding small and medium-size combustion plants of households and small consumers, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3712 42 313 2)), while the current underlying projection is containing a greater use of solid biomass in 2030 than the EWS. The developments in the area of small combustion installations, in particular the development of fuel use and the existing plant inventory, are difficult to assess and emission calculation is fraught with uncertainties. According to expert assessments, with an increase of solid biomass use, the implied emission factor will further decrease as the share of newer and cleaner installations will go up.
  
-Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, Handel, Dienstleistungen” (GHD)), but the calculation of the emissions factors is further sub-divided in several installation type categories of local space heaters and solid fuel boilers, with different emission limit values set by the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV. In addition, emission factors are expected to decrease through several funding programmes, last the “Bundesförderung effiziente Gebäude” (BEG)((https://www.energiewechsel.de/KAENEF/Redaktion/DE/FAQ/FAQ-Uebersicht/Richtlinien/bundesfoerderung-fuer-effiziente-gebaeude-beg.html)), whereas activity rates of heat supply from solid biomass in buildings is expected to increase until 2030, before decreasing again by 2040. Resulting emission factors for TSP (total suspended particles) used in the WM scenario are shown in table 5.+Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, Handel, Dienstleistungen” (GHD)), but the calculation of the emissions factors is further sub-divided in several installation type categories of local space heaters and solid fuel boilers, with different emission limit values set by the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and additional funding requirements changing from time to time. Resulting emission factors for TSP (total suspended particles) used in the WM scenario are shown in Table 8.
  
-__Table 5: TSP emission factors in small combustion installations for solid biomass in the WM scenario__ +__Table 8: TSP emission factors in small combustion installations for solid biomass in the WM scenario__ 
-^ sub-sector  ^ 2020 in kg/TJ ^ 2025 in kg/TJ ^ 2030 in kg/TJ ^ 2035 in kg/TJ ^ 2040 in kg/TJ ^ +^ sub-sector  ^ 2022 in kg/TJ ^ 2025 in kg/TJ ^ 2030 in kg/TJ ^ 2040 in kg/TJ ^ 2050 in kg/TJ ^ 
-^ households (HH)  |  64.2  | | | | |  +^ households (HH)  |  59.5  | | | | |  
-|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV| | 55.72   | 47.24 | 45.16 | 43.08 |  +|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV + funding| | 47.2   | 44.7 | 39.4  | 39.4  | 
-|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV + funding| | 55.67   | 47.15 | 45.08  | 43.00  | +^ commerce, trade, services (GHD)   |  37.4  | | | | |  
-^ households (HH) commerce, trade, service   |  40.0  | | | |  |  +|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV + funding| | 26.8   | 25.4 | 22.7  | 22.7  |
-|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV| | 33.57   | 27.12 | 25.68 | 24.24  |  +
-|  1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV + funding| | 33.40   | 26.78 | 25.36  | 23.94  |+
  
-For calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emission factors specific shares per installation type category were used. For 2030 the proportions of PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in TSP (total suspended particles) are given in table 6.+For calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emission factors, specific shares per installation type category were used. For 2030 the proportions of PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in TSP (total suspended particles) are given in Table 9.
  
-__Table 6: Proportions of PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in TSP in 2030 for categories of small combustion installations__ +__Table 9: Proportions of PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in TSP in 2030 for solid biomass small combustion installations__ 
-^ installation type category  ^  PM<sub>10</sub>/TSP in %  ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub>/TSP in %  ^ +^ sub-sector  ^  PM<sub>10</sub>/TSP in %  ^  PM<sub>2.5</sub>/TSP in %  ^ 
-^ local space heaters (solid biomass)  |    99              | 95.5   |  +^ households (HH)  |    95              | 88   |  
-^ solid fuel boilers (biomass)  |                  |   |  +^ commerce, trade, services (GHD)  |       98           | 93   | 
-|  pellet boilers|    97             | 84   |  +
-|  log boilers|    92             | 79   |  +
-|  wood chip boilers|    94             | 87   | +
  
 **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:**
    
-The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the German Envrionment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von)), where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology. It is assumed that only half of the potential from the LUFT 2030 project will be reached in average. Thus, the emission factors for PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> result from the mean value of the current submission 2022 and the emission factor from the LUFT 2030 project at 50 per cent each. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. This technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. Therefore, the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is taken from the LUFT 2030 project, too. +The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von)), where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology, which was assumed to correspond to 66.7 g dust per ton sinter. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. According to the LUFT 2030 project, this technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. 
  
-The emission factor for dust is calculated by dividing the given sizes of the emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub>. Consequently, the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> can be calculated by dividing the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> by the emission factor for dust. +The emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> (0.9). Consequently, the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (0.84).
  
-These calculated factors (emission factor dust and the split factors for PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>) for the recorded emission sources are used for the projection and transferred to the database.+The calculated emission factors are assumed to be fully achieved in practice in the year 2030 and are used for the WM scenario.
  
 **Reduction in medium combustion plants through implementation of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:** **Reduction in medium combustion plants through implementation of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
  
-Medium combustion plants (MCP), including gas turbines and combustion engine plants are regulated by the national 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, which entered into force in June 2019, and are therefore part of the WM scenario. The underlying limit values of the emission calculation are taken from the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV. The measure leads to a reduction in the emission factors of the affected time series in several NFR sectors under 1.A.+Medium combustion plants (MCP), including gas turbines and combustion engine plants are regulated by the national 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, which implemented the MCP directive (EU) 2015/2193 into national law and entered into force in June 2019, and are therefore part of the WM scenario. The underlying limit values of the emission calculation are taken from the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV. The measure leads to a reduction in the emission factors of the affected time series in several NFR sectors under 1.A.
  
-The data basis for the calculation is the submission 2022. The source categories are reassessed separately according to the pollutants and the relevant fuel inputs. The expected service life of the plants (in years) is taken into account (see Table 8) as well as a distinction between old and new plants and the RTI of the plants in MW (see Table 7). Table 7 shows the plant split for the various fuel uses taking into account the RTI.+The data basis for the calculation is the submission 2024. The source categories are reassessed separately according to the pollutants and the relevant fuel inputs. The expected average years in service plants are taken into account (see Table 11) as well as a distinction between old and new plants and the rated thermal input (RTI) of the plants in MW (see Table 10). Table 10 shows the plant split for various fuels taking into account the RTI.
  
-__Table 7: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__+__Table 10: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__
 ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^  RTI in MW  ^  Proportion  ^ ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^  RTI in MW  ^  Proportion  ^
-^ Biomass         | 1-5 |   6.5 %    | +^ Biomass | 1-5 |    11 %    | 
-| :::     | 5-20 |  17.7 %    | +| ::: | 5-20 |    30 %    | 
-| :::             |  20-50 |  75.8 %    | +| ::: |  20-50 |    59 %    | 
-^ Lignite     |   1-20 |  95.8 %    | +^ Lignite |   1-20 |  95.8 %    | 
-|  :::     |  20-50 |   4.2 %    |  +| ::: |  20-50 |   4.2 %    |  
-^ Hard coal     |   1-20 |  90.2 %    | +^ Hard coal |   1-20 |  90.2 %    | 
-| :::     |  20-50 |   9.8 %    | +| ::: |  20-50 |   9.8 %    | 
-^ Heavy fuel     |   5-20 |  68.0 %    | +^ Heavy fuel |   5-20 |  68.0 %    | 
-|        :::                          |  20-50 |  32.0 %    |+| ::: |  20-50 |  32.0 %    |
 |<sub>The limit values of the MCP are specified in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV according to their performance ranges. The table shows the estimated proportion of MCP in Germany in relation to the RTI provided and the fuel input used.</sub>||| |<sub>The limit values of the MCP are specified in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV according to their performance ranges. The table shows the estimated proportion of MCP in Germany in relation to the RTI provided and the fuel input used.</sub>|||
  
-__Table 8: Expected service life of MCP according to type of plant, pollutant and fuel use__ +__Table 11: Expected service life of MCP according to type of plant, pollutant and fuel use__ 
 | ^  Expected average service life ^ | ^  Expected average service life ^
 ^ Combustion plants - solid fuels | 20 years |      ^ Combustion plants - solid fuels | 20 years |     
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 ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years | ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years |
  
-The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are weighted for each RTI range of the plants and calculated for old and new plants. Assuming that a constant rate of existing plants, depending on the assumed service life, is renewed or upgraded annually, the weighting of the limit values for new plants for the projections in 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 is increased or, depending on the expected service life of the plant, only the limit values for new plants are taken into account. +The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are weighted for each RTI range of the plants and calculated for old and new plants. Assuming that a constant rate of existing plants, depending on the assumed average lifetime, is renewed or upgraded annually, the weighting of the limit values for new plants for the projections in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and 2050 is increased or, depending on the expected average lifetime of the plant category, only the limit values for new plants are taken into account. 
  
-If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is updated because it is already below the upper range according to the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and thus complies with the maximum limit values. The recalculated values for the time series are adopted and the maximum permitted limit value is assigned to time series when the current emission factor is above the upper range.+If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is kept for the projection because it is already below the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and thus complies with the limit values. The recalculated values for the time series, reflecting the maximum permitted limit values, are assigned to time series in all other cases where the current emission factor is above the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV.
  
 __Example:__ __Example:__
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 The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels.  The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels. 
  
-The basis for the calculation is the maximum amount of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 9). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 1), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 9 shows the NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.+The basis for the calculation is the maximum annual average amount of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 12). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 4), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 12 shows the NO<sub>X</sub> limit values as annual average for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.
  
-__Table 9: NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__+__Table 12: NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__
 ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>X</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>X</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^ ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>X</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>X</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^
 | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       |||  | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       ||| 
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 |<sup>Limit values for solid biomass in MCP for old and new plants according to the 44th BImSchV in mg/Nm^3 and kg/TJ.</sup>|||||||| |<sup>Limit values for solid biomass in MCP for old and new plants according to the 44th BImSchV in mg/Nm^3 and kg/TJ.</sup>||||||||
  
-It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table 8). In addition, it is assumed that an annual renewal of the plant will be implemented after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV comes into force in 2019 and that the limit values for new plants getting greater weight each year. +It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table 11). In addition, it is assumed that a constant annual renewal of the plant will be implemented after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV comes into force in 2019 and that the limit values for new plants getting greater weight each year. 
  
-According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of old plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV was introduced, the proportion of new plants is 11/20 compared to 9/20 old plants. After 16 years in 2035, the limit value for new plants is included in the calculation with 16/20. +According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of existing plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV was introduced, the proportion of new plants is 11/20 compared to 9/20 existing plants. After 16 years in 2035, the limit value for new plants is included in the calculation with 16/20. From 2040 only the limit value for new plants is assumed, as it is 21 years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV has entered into force.
  
-Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table 9), a new emission factor of 153.0 kg/TJ for 2025 results, as shown in (3). +Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table 10), a new emission factor of 166.8 kg/TJ for 2025 results, as shown in (3). 
  
-    (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 153.0 kg/TJ.+    (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 166.8 kg/TJ.
  
-Since the maximum reference value from the 2022 submission for the year 2020 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2030 is identical and is shown in (4).+Since the maximum reference value from the 2024 submission for the year 2022 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. For 2030 as well, as the calculated limit of 144.3 kg / TJ in 2030 is still above the reference emission factor in 2022. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2035 is identical and is shown in (4).
  
-    (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2030) = 9/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 11/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 132.45 kg/TJ+    (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2035) = 4/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 16/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 121.8 kg/TJ
  
-In 2030 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is adopted as the new NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor. +In 2035 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is assumed as the new implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor. 
  
 __Special Feature:__ __Special Feature:__