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general:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 13:51] – eisoldgeneral:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 20:44] (current) – eisold
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 === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. === === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. ===
  
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 **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions:** **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13<sup>th</sup> and 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV as well as minimum requirements of recent BAT conclusions:**
  
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 __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__ __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__
  
-When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 1) is used for the assessment of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions, analogous to heavy fuel oil. +When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 4) is used for the assessment of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions, analogous to heavy fuel oil. 
  
 When calculating the potential SO<sub>2</sub> emissions from source group “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Fernheizwerken” and “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Kraftwerken” for other liquid fuels, a clear distinction is made in the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV between existing plants and new plants. The implied emission limit value of existing plants is 78.44 kg/TJ. It is assumed that by 2040 all plants will correspond to the latest technology and will therefore from 2040 onwards retain at least the limit value for new plants, estimated at 61.81 kg/TJ. When calculating the potential SO<sub>2</sub> emissions from source group “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Fernheizwerken” and “Mitverbrennung in öffentlichen Kraftwerken” for other liquid fuels, a clear distinction is made in the 17<sup>th</sup> BImSchV between existing plants and new plants. The implied emission limit value of existing plants is 78.44 kg/TJ. It is assumed that by 2040 all plants will correspond to the latest technology and will therefore from 2040 onwards retain at least the limit value for new plants, estimated at 61.81 kg/TJ.
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 **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:**
    
-The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the German Envrionment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von)), where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology. It is assumed that only half of the potential from the LUFT 2030 project will be reached in average. Thus, the emission factors for PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> result from the mean value of the current submission 2022 and the emission factor from the LUFT 2030 project at 50 per cent each. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. This technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. Therefore, the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is taken from the LUFT 2030 project, too. +The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von)), where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology, which was assumed to correspond to 66.7 g dust per ton sinter. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. According to the LUFT 2030 project, this technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. 
  
-The emission factor for dust is calculated by dividing the given sizes of the emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub>. Consequently, the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> can be calculated by dividing the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> by the emission factor for dust. +The emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> (0.9). Consequently, the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (0.84).
  
-These calculated factors (emission factor dust and the split factors for PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>) for the recorded emission sources are used for the projection and transferred to the database.+The calculated emission factors are assumed to be fully achieved in practice in the year 2030 and are used for the WM scenario.
  
 **Reduction in medium combustion plants through implementation of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:** **Reduction in medium combustion plants through implementation of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV:**
  
-Medium combustion plants (MCP), including gas turbines and combustion engine plants are regulated by the national 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, which entered into force in June 2019, and are therefore part of the WM scenario. The underlying limit values of the emission calculation are taken from the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV. The measure leads to a reduction in the emission factors of the affected time series in several NFR sectors under 1.A.+Medium combustion plants (MCP), including gas turbines and combustion engine plants are regulated by the national 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV, which implemented the MCP directive (EU) 2015/2193 into national law and entered into force in June 2019, and are therefore part of the WM scenario. The underlying limit values of the emission calculation are taken from the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV. The measure leads to a reduction in the emission factors of the affected time series in several NFR sectors under 1.A.
  
-The data basis for the calculation is the submission 2022. The source categories are reassessed separately according to the pollutants and the relevant fuel inputs. The expected service life of the plants (in years) is taken into account (see Table 8) as well as a distinction between old and new plants and the RTI of the plants in MW (see Table 7). Table 7 shows the plant split for the various fuel uses taking into account the RTI.+The data basis for the calculation is the submission 2024. The source categories are reassessed separately according to the pollutants and the relevant fuel inputs. The expected average years in service plants are taken into account (see Table 11) as well as a distinction between old and new plants and the rated thermal input (RTI) of the plants in MW (see Table 10). Table 10 shows the plant split for various fuels taking into account the RTI.
  
-__Table 7: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__+__Table 10: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__
 ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^  RTI in MW  ^  Proportion  ^ ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^  RTI in MW  ^  Proportion  ^
-^ Biomass         | 1-5 |   6.5 %    | +^ Biomass | 1-5 |    11 %    | 
-| :::     | 5-20 |  17.7 %    | +| ::: | 5-20 |    30 %    | 
-| :::             |  20-50 |  75.8 %    | +| ::: |  20-50 |    59 %    | 
-^ Lignite     |   1-20 |  95.8 %    | +^ Lignite |   1-20 |  95.8 %    | 
-|  :::     |  20-50 |   4.2 %    |  +| ::: |  20-50 |   4.2 %    |  
-^ Hard coal     |   1-20 |  90.2 %    | +^ Hard coal |   1-20 |  90.2 %    | 
-| :::     |  20-50 |   9.8 %    | +| ::: |  20-50 |   9.8 %    | 
-^ Heavy fuel     |   5-20 |  68.0 %    | +^ Heavy fuel |   5-20 |  68.0 %    | 
-|        :::                          |  20-50 |  32.0 %    |+| ::: |  20-50 |  32.0 %    |
 |<sub>The limit values of the MCP are specified in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV according to their performance ranges. The table shows the estimated proportion of MCP in Germany in relation to the RTI provided and the fuel input used.</sub>||| |<sub>The limit values of the MCP are specified in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV according to their performance ranges. The table shows the estimated proportion of MCP in Germany in relation to the RTI provided and the fuel input used.</sub>|||
  
-__Table 8: Expected service life of MCP according to type of plant, pollutant and fuel use__ +__Table 11: Expected service life of MCP according to type of plant, pollutant and fuel use__ 
 | ^  Expected average service life ^ | ^  Expected average service life ^
 ^ Combustion plants - solid fuels | 20 years |      ^ Combustion plants - solid fuels | 20 years |     
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 ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years | ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years |
  
-The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are weighted for each RTI range of the plants and calculated for old and new plants. Assuming that a constant rate of existing plants, depending on the assumed service life, is renewed or upgraded annually, the weighting of the limit values for new plants for the projections in 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 is increased or, depending on the expected service life of the plant, only the limit values for new plants are taken into account. +The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV are weighted for each RTI range of the plants and calculated for old and new plants. Assuming that a constant rate of existing plants, depending on the assumed average lifetime, is renewed or upgraded annually, the weighting of the limit values for new plants for the projections in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and 2050 is increased or, depending on the expected average lifetime of the plant category, only the limit values for new plants are taken into account. 
  
-If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is updated because it is already below the upper range according to the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and thus complies with the maximum limit values. The recalculated values for the time series are adopted and the maximum permitted limit value is assigned to time series when the current emission factor is above the upper range.+If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is kept for the projection because it is already below the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV and thus complies with the limit values. The recalculated values for the time series, reflecting the maximum permitted limit values, are assigned to time series in all other cases where the current emission factor is above the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV.
  
 __Example:__ __Example:__
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 The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels.  The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels. 
  
-The basis for the calculation is the maximum amount of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 9). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 1), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 9 shows the NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.+The basis for the calculation is the maximum annual average amount of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 12). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 4), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 12 shows the NO<sub>X</sub> limit values as annual average for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.
  
-__Table 9: NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__+__Table 12: NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__
 ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>X</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>X</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^ ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>X</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>X</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^
 | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       |||  | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       ||| 
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 |<sup>Limit values for solid biomass in MCP for old and new plants according to the 44th BImSchV in mg/Nm^3 and kg/TJ.</sup>|||||||| |<sup>Limit values for solid biomass in MCP for old and new plants according to the 44th BImSchV in mg/Nm^3 and kg/TJ.</sup>||||||||
  
-It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table 8). In addition, it is assumed that an annual renewal of the plant will be implemented after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV comes into force in 2019 and that the limit values for new plants getting greater weight each year. +It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table 11). In addition, it is assumed that a constant annual renewal of the plant will be implemented after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV comes into force in 2019 and that the limit values for new plants getting greater weight each year. 
  
-According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of old plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV was introduced, the proportion of new plants is 11/20 compared to 9/20 old plants. After 16 years in 2035, the limit value for new plants is included in the calculation with 16/20. +According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of existing plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV was introduced, the proportion of new plants is 11/20 compared to 9/20 existing plants. After 16 years in 2035, the limit value for new plants is included in the calculation with 16/20. From 2040 only the limit value for new plants is assumed, as it is 21 years after the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV has entered into force.
  
-Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table 9), a new emission factor of 153.0 kg/TJ for 2025 results, as shown in (3). +Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table 10), a new emission factor of 166.8 kg/TJ for 2025 results, as shown in (3). 
  
-    (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 153.0 kg/TJ.+    (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 166.8 kg/TJ.
  
-Since the maximum reference value from the 2022 submission for the year 2020 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2030 is identical and is shown in (4).+Since the maximum reference value from the 2024 submission for the year 2022 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. For 2030 as well, as the calculated limit of 144.3 kg / TJ in 2030 is still above the reference emission factor in 2022. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2035 is identical and is shown in (4).
  
-    (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2030) = 9/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 11/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 132.45 kg/TJ+    (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2035) = 4/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 16/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 121.8 kg/TJ
  
-In 2030 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is adopted as the new NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor. +In 2035 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is assumed as the new implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor. 
  
 __Special Feature:__ __Special Feature:__