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general:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 14:02] – eisold | general:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/30 09:14] (current) – kotzulla | ||
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=== Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. === | === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. === | ||
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**Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13< | **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13< | ||
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The concrete procedure is illustrated using the example of NO< | The concrete procedure is illustrated using the example of NO< | ||
- | The specific BAT-associated emission levels for lignite can be found in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. With a reference oxygen of 6 %, the plants are differentiated according to size and specified with the emission levels in mg/ | + | The specific BAT-associated emission levels for lignite can be found in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. With a reference oxygen of 6%, the plants are differentiated according to size and specified with the emission levels in mg/ |
__Table 6: Emission limit values (annual averages) when using raw lignite in existing plants__ | __Table 6: Emission limit values (annual averages) when using raw lignite in existing plants__ | ||
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|< | |< | ||
- | The implied emission factor is calculated | + | The implied emission factor is calculated |
+ | |||
+ | <m> EF_{lignite} = 112.70kg/TJ • 4.5% + 75.13kg/TJ • 14.5% + 73.04kg/TJ • 81% = 75.13 kg/TJ </m> | ||
- | (1) emission factor (lignite) = 112.70 kg/TJ * 4.5 % + 75.13 kg/TJ * 14.5 % + 73.04 kg/TJ * 81 % = 75.13 kg/TJ | ||
The comparison with the current submission 2024 shows that the calculated emission factor (75.13 kg/TJ) is lower than that of the reference value from 2022 (76.8 kg/TJ). Thus from 2025 onwards the emission factor will be replaced by the new value and used for the projection. | The comparison with the current submission 2024 shows that the calculated emission factor (75.13 kg/TJ) is lower than that of the reference value from 2022 (76.8 kg/TJ). Thus from 2025 onwards the emission factor will be replaced by the new value and used for the projection. | ||
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__Example 2__ | __Example 2__ | ||
- | According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31< | + | According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31< |
+ | |||
+ | 13< | ||
+ | |||
+ | Assuming a 50% share of plants within each size class, lacking specific data, from 2030 onwards a projected implied NO< | ||
- | (2) emission factor (heavy fuel oil) = (400 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/ | + | <m> EF_{heavy fuel oil} = (400mg/Nm³ ÷ 3.39) • 4.5% • 0.5 + (270 mg/ |
Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2022 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2030 and beyond. The emission factor for 2025 was linearly interpolated between 2022 and 2030. | Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2022 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2030 and beyond. The emission factor for 2025 was linearly interpolated between 2022 and 2030. | ||
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__Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__ | __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__ | ||
- | When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 1) is used for the assessment of NO< | + | When using liquid fuels (specified in the database as “other mineral oil products”) in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 4) is used for the assessment of NO< |
When calculating the potential SO< | When calculating the potential SO< | ||
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However, the electricity market simulation assumes a market-driven coal exit until 2031. As a result, there is no further mitigation potential of an accelerated coal phase-out, as estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Projection of the activity rates was taken from the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 7. | However, the electricity market simulation assumes a market-driven coal exit until 2031. As a result, there is no further mitigation potential of an accelerated coal phase-out, as estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Projection of the activity rates was taken from the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 7. | ||
- | __Table 7: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (> 50 MW) according to the WEM scenario of the " | + | __Table 7: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (>50 MW) according to the WEM scenario of the " |
^ District | ^ District | ||
| ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ | | ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ in TJ ^ | ||
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^ Total | ^ Total | ||
- | Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO< | + | Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO< |
+ | |||
+ | For each power plant, the total activity rate and the emission factors for NO< | ||
**Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1< | **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1< | ||
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The amendment of the Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz – GEG) of 16< | The amendment of the Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz – GEG) of 16< | ||
- | On the other hand, reductions of dust emission factors from small combustion installations are assumed in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1< | + | On the other hand, reductions of dust emission factors from small combustion installations are assumed in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1< |
Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, | Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, | ||
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**Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** | **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** | ||
- | The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, | + | The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)[(JOERSS2014)], where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/ |
The emission factor for PM< | The emission factor for PM< | ||
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__Table 10: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__ | __Table 10: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__ | ||
^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^ RTI in MW ^ Proportion | ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^ RTI in MW ^ Proportion | ||
- | ^ Biomass | + | ^ Biomass | 1-5 | 11 % | |
- | | ::: | + | | ::: | 5-20 | |
- | | ::: | + | | ::: | 20-50 | |
- | ^ Lignite | + | ^ Lignite | |
- | | ::: | + | | ::: | 20-50 | |
- | ^ Hard coal | + | ^ Hard coal | |
- | | ::: | + | | ::: | 20-50 | |
- | ^ Heavy fuel | + | ^ Heavy fuel | |
- | | ::: | 20-50 | | + | | ::: | 20-50 | |
|< | |< | ||
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^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years | | ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years | | ||
- | The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44< | + | The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44< |
- | If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is updated | + | If the current emission factor from the 2022 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is kept for the projection |
__Example: | __Example: | ||
- | The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO< | + | The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO< |
- | The basis for the calculation is the maximum amount of NO< | + | The basis for the calculation is the maximum |
- | __Table | + | __Table |
- | ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^ | + | ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^ |
| ::: | ::: | RTI in MW | | ::: | ::: | RTI in MW | ||
| ::: | ::: | 1-5 | > | | ::: | ::: | 1-5 | > | ||
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|< | |< | ||
- | It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table | + | It is assumed that the average service life of the plants is 20 years (Table |
- | According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of old plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44< | + | According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of existing |
- | Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table | + | Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (Table |
- | (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 153.0 kg/TJ. | + | (3) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2025) = 14/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 166.8 kg/TJ. |
- | Since the maximum reference value from the 2022 submission for the year 2020 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2030 is identical and is shown in (4). | + | Since the maximum reference value from the 2024 submission for the year 2022 (137.5 kg/TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be kept constant for the year 2025. For 2030 as well, as the calculated limit of 144.3 kg / TJ in 2030 is still above the reference emission factor in 2022. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2035 is identical and is shown in (4). |
- | (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2030) = 9/20 * {(6.5 % + 17.7 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 11/20 * {6.5 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 132.45 kg/TJ | + | (4) emission factor (other solid biomass than wood in 2035) = 4/20 * {(11 % + 30 %) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 59 % * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 16/20 * {11 % * 154.4 kg/TJ + 30 % * 125.2 kg/TJ + 59 % * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 121.8 kg/TJ |
- | In 2030 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is adopted | + | In 2035 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that the calculated one is assumed |
__Special Feature:__ | __Special Feature:__ | ||
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According to the 44< | According to the 44< | ||
+ | [(TEBERT2016> | ||
+ | |||
+ | [(JOERSS2014> | ||