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general:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/01 20:44] – eisoldgeneral:projections:wm-scenario [2025/04/30 09:14] (current) – kotzulla
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 The concrete procedure is illustrated using the example of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions from the use of raw lignite as fuel for heat generation in public district heating plants.  The concrete procedure is illustrated using the example of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions from the use of raw lignite as fuel for heat generation in public district heating plants. 
  
-The specific BAT-associated emission levels for lignite can be found in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. With a reference oxygen of 6 %, the plants are differentiated according to size and specified with the emission levels in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. The upper end of the emission levels is interpreted as a maximum limit value and converted into kg/TJ using the specific conversion factor of 2.40 (see Table 4). The calculated maximum limit value is therefore averaged for each plant size, taking into account the number of plants, and thus, the estimated value for the necessary NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor for compliance with the maximum limit value is calculated in accordance with the BAT conclusions. The necessary data can be found in Table 6. This shows the plants subdivision according to their RTI with the assigned maximum limit values as annual averages in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ. +The specific BAT-associated emission levels for lignite can be found in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. With a reference oxygen of 6%, the plants are differentiated according to size and specified with the emission levels in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>. The upper end of the emission levels is interpreted as a maximum limit value and converted into kg/TJ using the specific conversion factor of 2.40 (see Table 4). The calculated maximum limit value is therefore averaged for each plant size, taking into account the number of plants, and thus, the estimated value for the necessary NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor for compliance with the maximum limit value is calculated in accordance with the BAT conclusions. The necessary data can be found in Table 6. This shows the plants subdivision according to their RTI with the assigned maximum limit values as annual averages in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ. 
  
 __Table 6: Emission limit values (annual averages) when using raw lignite in existing plants__  __Table 6: Emission limit values (annual averages) when using raw lignite in existing plants__ 
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 |<sub>The LCP emission limit values for the use of raw lignite are regulated in (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. There are separate limit values for each RTI of the plant. The upper range is shown here as a limit value for existing plants as annual averages in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.</sub>||||  |<sub>The LCP emission limit values for the use of raw lignite are regulated in (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. There are separate limit values for each RTI of the plant. The upper range is shown here as a limit value for existing plants as annual averages in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.</sub>|||| 
  
-The implied emission factor is calculated in (1).+The implied emission factor is calculated as follows: 
 + 
 +<m> EF_{lignite} = 112.70kg/TJ • 4.5% + 75.13kg/TJ • 14.5% + 73.04kg/TJ • 81% = 75.13 kg/TJ </m>
  
-    (1) emission factor (lignite) = 112.70 kg/TJ * 4.5 % + 75.13 kg/TJ * 14.5 % + 73.04 kg/TJ * 81 % = 75.13 kg/TJ 
  
 The comparison with the current submission 2024 shows that the calculated emission factor (75.13 kg/TJ) is lower than that of the reference value from 2022 (76.8 kg/TJ). Thus from 2025 onwards the emission factor will be replaced by the new value and used for the projection.  The comparison with the current submission 2024 shows that the calculated emission factor (75.13 kg/TJ) is lower than that of the reference value from 2022 (76.8 kg/TJ). Thus from 2025 onwards the emission factor will be replaced by the new value and used for the projection. 
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 __Example 2__ __Example 2__
  
-According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31<sup>st</sup> July 2017 on Conclusions on Best Available Techniques (BAT) according to Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for large combustion plants, the maximum permissible pollutant emission for NO<sub>X</sub> while using heavy fuel oil in plants < 100 MW is 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and in plants > 100 MW is 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> as yearly average for existing plants with more than 1500 operating hours per year (BAT 28). 13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in the version of 2021 sets limit values for NO<sub>X</sub> as 270 ng/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with more than 1500 operating hours per year and 400 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants < 100 MW with less than 1500 operating hours per year. For existing plants > 100 MW 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and for new plants > 100 MW 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> are set. The values are converted into kg/TJ according to the specific flue gas volume of heavy fuel oil (Table 4). Assuming a 50 % share of plants within each size class, lacking specific data, from 2030 onwards a projected implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor of 58.0 kg/TJ results after conversion as indicated in equation (2). +According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31<sup>st</sup> July 2017 on Conclusions on Best Available Techniques (BAT) according to Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for large combustion plants, the maximum permissible pollutant emission for NO<sub>x</sub> while using heavy fuel oil in plants <100 MW is 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and in plants >100 MW is 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> as yearly average for existing plants with more than 1,500 operating hours per year (BAT 28).  
 + 
 +13<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in the version of 2021 sets limit values for NO<sub>x</sub> as 270 ng/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants <100 MW with more than 1500 operating hours per year and 400 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> in plants <100 MW with less than 1,500 operating hours per year. For existing plants >100 MW 270 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and for new plants >100 MW 110 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> are set. The values are converted into kg/TJ according to the specific flue gas volume of heavy fuel oil (Table 4).  
 + 
 +Assuming a 50% share of plants within each size class, lacking specific data, from 2030 onwards a projected implied NO<sub>X</sub> emission factor of 58.0 kg/TJ results after conversion as indicated in the following equation:
  
-    (2) emission factor (heavy fuel oil) = (400 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 4.5 % * 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 + (110 mg/Nm³ / 3.39) * 95.5 % * 0.5 = 58.0 kg/TJ.+<m> EF_{heavy fuel oil} = (400mg/Nm³ ÷ 3.39) • 4.5% • 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ ÷ 3.39) • 4.5% • 0.5 + (270 mg/Nm³ ÷ 3.39) • 95.5% • 0.5 + (110 mg/Nm³ ÷ 3.39) • 95.5% • 0.5 = 58.0 kg/TJ </m> 
  
 Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2022 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2030 and beyond. The emission factor for 2025 was linearly interpolated between 2022 and 2030. Thus, the maximum emission quantity is applicable law and is below the inventory emission factor for the reference year 2022 under conservative assumptions and therefore assigned to the WM scenario for 2030 and beyond. The emission factor for 2025 was linearly interpolated between 2022 and 2030.
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 However, the electricity market simulation assumes a market-driven coal exit until 2031. As a result, there is no further mitigation potential of an accelerated coal phase-out, as estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Projection of the activity rates was taken from the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 7. However, the electricity market simulation assumes a market-driven coal exit until 2031. As a result, there is no further mitigation potential of an accelerated coal phase-out, as estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Projection of the activity rates was taken from the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and disaggregated to the German lignite mining districts within the project as shown in Table 7.
  
-__Table 7: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (> 50 MW) according to the WEM scenario of the "Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland" in the years 2022 to 2040__ +__Table 7: Primary energy use for lignite in LCP (>50 MW) according to the WEM scenario of the "Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland" in the years 2022 to 2040__ 
 ^ District   ^ Primary Energy Use 2022 ^ Primary Energy Use 2025 ^  Primary Energy Use 2030 ^  Primary Energy Use 2035 ^ Primary Energy Use 2040 ^ ^ District   ^ Primary Energy Use 2022 ^ Primary Energy Use 2025 ^  Primary Energy Use 2030 ^  Primary Energy Use 2035 ^ Primary Energy Use 2040 ^
 |   ^ in TJ     ^   in TJ       ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ       ^ |   ^ in TJ     ^   in TJ       ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ     ^ in TJ       ^
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 ^ Total   ^ 1,062,958     ^      717,053       ^      7,913          ^      0             ^      0       | ^ Total   ^ 1,062,958     ^      717,053       ^      7,913          ^      0             ^      0       |
  
-Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>X</sub> are therefore reassessed. When calculating the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors as a result of the phase-out, the districts of Central Germany, Lausitz and Rhineland are considered separately. The individual districts will be subdivided into their existing power plants. For each power plant, the total activity rate and the emission factors for NO<sub>X</sub> for the years 2004 to 2017 in TJ or kg/TJ according to the 2020 submission are adopted as data basis. In order to take into account fluctuations in the emission factors, the emission factors are averaged per plant over the last years, in which no new blocks went into operation (e.g. Block R of Boxberg IV in the Lausitz district started continuous operation in 2012). In addition, the mean value for all power plants in a district is calculated for the formation of the implied emission factor by weighting according to their activity rates. Hence, each district is assigned a current implied emission factor. With the shutdown of the last block of a power plant, this plant is considered to be shut down and from this point in time it is no longer included in the calculation of the implied emission factor of a specific district. +Emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO<sub>x</sub> are therefore reassessed. When calculating the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors as a result of the phase-out, the districts of Central Germany, Lausitz and Rhineland are considered separately. The individual districts will be subdivided into their existing power plants.  
 + 
 +For each power plant, the total activity rate and the emission factors for NO<sub>x</sub> for the years 2004 to 2017 in TJ or kg/TJ according to the 2020 submission are adopted as data basis. In order to take into account fluctuations in the emission factors, the emission factors are averaged per plant over the last years, in which no new blocks went into operation (e.g. Block R of Boxberg IV in the Lausitz district started continuous operation in 2012). In addition, the mean value for all power plants in a district is calculated for the formation of the implied emission factor by weighting according to their activity rates. Hence, each district is assigned a current implied emission factor. With the shutdown of the last block of a power plant, this plant is considered to be shut down and from this point in time it is no longer included in the calculation of the implied emission factor of a specific district. 
  
 **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and funding programmes:** **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and funding programmes:**
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 The amendment of the Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz – GEG) of 16<sup>th</sup> October 2023 was assumed to further incentivise the use of solid biomass for heat generation in the building sector. Hence, potential increase in PM emissions was estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Estimation of the potential effects of the GEG was incorporated in the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and is therefore part of the current WM scenario.  The amendment of the Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz – GEG) of 16<sup>th</sup> October 2023 was assumed to further incentivise the use of solid biomass for heat generation in the building sector. Hence, potential increase in PM emissions was estimated in the WAM scenario of the NAPCP 2023. Estimation of the potential effects of the GEG was incorporated in the WEM scenario (MMS) of the “Treibhausgas-Projektionen 2024 für Deutschland” and is therefore part of the current WM scenario. 
  
-On the other hand, reductions of dust emission factors from small combustion installations are assumed in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV flanked by several funding programmes, last the “Bundesförderung effiziente Gebäude” (BEG)((https://www.energiewechsel.de/KAENEF/Redaktion/DE/FAQ/FAQ-Uebersicht/Richtlinien/bundesfoerderung-fuer-effiziente-gebaeude-beg.html)). The calculation of the future emission factors is based on the projection of the "Energiewende" scenario (EWS) from Tebert et al. (2016)((Tebert, C., Volz, F., Töfke, K. (2016): Development and update of emission factors for the National Inventory regarding small and medium-size combustion plants of households and small consumers, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3712 42 313 2)), while the current underlying projection is containing a greater use of solid biomass in 2030 than the EWS. The developments in the area of small combustion installations, in particular the development of fuel use and the existing plant inventory, are difficult to assess and emission calculation is fraught with uncertainties. According to expert assessments, with an increase of solid biomass use, the implied emission factor will further decrease as the share of newer and cleaner installations will go up.+On the other hand, reductions of dust emission factors from small combustion installations are assumed in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV flanked by several funding programmes, last the “Bundesförderung effiziente Gebäude” (BEG)((https://www.energiewechsel.de/KAENEF/Redaktion/DE/FAQ/FAQ-Uebersicht/Richtlinien/bundesfoerderung-fuer-effiziente-gebaeude-beg.html)). The calculation of the future emission factors is based on the projection of the "Energiewende" scenario (EWS) from Tebert et al. (2016)[(TEBERT2016)], while the current underlying projection is containing a greater use of solid biomass in 2030 than the EWS. The developments in the area of small combustion installations, in particular the development of fuel use and the existing plant inventory, are difficult to assess and emission calculation is fraught with uncertainties. According to expert assessments, with an increase of solid biomass use, the implied emission factor will further decrease as the share of newer and cleaner installations will go up.
  
 Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, Handel, Dienstleistungen” (GHD)), but the calculation of the emissions factors is further sub-divided in several installation type categories of local space heaters and solid fuel boilers, with different emission limit values set by the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and additional funding requirements changing from time to time. Resulting emission factors for TSP (total suspended particles) used in the WM scenario are shown in Table 8. Based on the inventory, a distinction is only made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, Handel, Dienstleistungen” (GHD)), but the calculation of the emissions factors is further sub-divided in several installation type categories of local space heaters and solid fuel boilers, with different emission limit values set by the 1<sup>st</sup> BImSchV and additional funding requirements changing from time to time. Resulting emission factors for TSP (total suspended particles) used in the WM scenario are shown in Table 8.
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 **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:**
    
-The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)((Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA), Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von)), where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology, which was assumed to correspond to 66.7 g dust per ton sinter. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. According to the LUFT 2030 project, this technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. +The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project LUFT 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014)[(JOERSS2014)], where measure P 009 results in dust emissions of less than 10 mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> due to better filter technology, which was assumed to correspond to 66.7 g dust per ton sinter. The affected time series are assigned to the NFR sector 2.C.1. According to the LUFT 2030 project, this technology also causes new split factors for the calculation of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub>. 
  
 The emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> (0.9). Consequently, the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (0.84). The emission factor for PM<sub>10</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>10</sub> (0.9). Consequently, the emission factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> is calculated by dividing the emission factor for dust by the split factor for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (0.84).
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 __Example:__ __Example:__
  
-The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>X</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels. +The exact procedure is exemplified by the NO<sub>x</sub> emission factors when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel. The procedure is in principle the same for all pollutants and fuels. 
  
-The basis for the calculation is the maximum annual average amount of NO<sub>X</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 12). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 4), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 12 shows the NO<sub>X</sub> limit values as annual average for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.+The basis for the calculation is the maximum annual average amount of NO<sub>x</sub> emissions per cubic meter permitted in the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV §10 (4) and (15) when using other solid biomass (than wood) as fuel (Table 12). After conversion with the specific conversion factor for lignite, assumed as similar to other solid biomass, of 2.39 (see Table 4), the limit values for old and new plants are available in kg/TJ. Table 12 shows the NO<sub>x</sub> limit values as annual average for solid biomass according to the RTI range for old and new plants in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup> and kg/TJ.
  
-__Table 12: NO<sub>X</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__ +__Table 12: NO<sub>x</sub> limit values for other solid biomass (than wood) in MCP according to the RTI for old and new plants__ 
-^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>X</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>X</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^+^ Fuel ^ Plant ^  NO<sub>x</sub> limit value according to 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV in mg/Nm<sup>3</sup>   ^^^ NO<sub>x</sub> limit value in kg/TJ    ^^^
 | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       |||  | ::: | ::: |  RTI in MW       |||  RTI in MW       ||| 
 | ::: | ::: |  1-5 |  >5 |  >20 |   1-5    |    >5   |   >20    |  | ::: | ::: |  1-5 |  >5 |  >20 |   1-5    |    >5   |   >20    | 
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 According to the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV § 16, the emission limit values for combustion engines will only apply from 1<sup>st</sup> of January 2025 on, so that the assumption of the partial renewal of plants will only apply from 2025 on. As a result, the reference values from the 2022 submission will be kept constant for 2025 and calculation of implied emission factors considering the limit values for new plants starts from the year 2025. According to the 44<sup>th</sup> BImSchV § 16, the emission limit values for combustion engines will only apply from 1<sup>st</sup> of January 2025 on, so that the assumption of the partial renewal of plants will only apply from 2025 on. As a result, the reference values from the 2022 submission will be kept constant for 2025 and calculation of implied emission factors considering the limit values for new plants starts from the year 2025.
  
 +[(TEBERT2016> Tebert et al. (2016): Tebert, C., Volz, F., Töfke, K. (2016): Development and update of emission factors for the National Inventory regarding small and medium-size combustion plants of households and small consumers, on behalf of the Umweltbundesamt, Project-Nr. 3712 42 313 2)]
 +
 +[(JOERSS2014> Jörß et al. (2014): Jörß, W., Emele, L., Scheffler, M., Cook, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Dünnebeil, F., Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Jozwicka, M., Kuenen, J.J.P., Denier van der Gon, H.A.C., Visschedijk, A.J.H., van Gijlswijk, R.N., Osterburg, B., Laggner, B., Stern, R., Handke, V. (2014): Luftqualität 2020/2030: Weiterentwicklung von Prognosen für Luftschadstoffe unter Berücksichtigung von Klimastrategien, on behalf of the Umweltbundesamt, Project-Nr. 3710 43 219, UBA-Texte 35/2014, https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/luftqualitaet-20202030-weiterentwicklung-von; ISSN 1862-4804, Dessau-Roßlau, July 2014 )]