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Based on the emissions inventory submission 2020 these results can be summarized as follows: | Based on the emissions inventory submission 2020 these results can be summarized as follows: | ||
^ kt | ^ kt | ||
- | | National Total 2005 | 1522 | 477 | 1183 | 641 | 141 | | + | | National Total 2005 (submission 2020) | 1522 | 477 | 1183 | 641 | 141 | |
- | | National Total 2010 | 1358 | 405 | 1057 | 641 | 123 | | + | | National Total 2010 (submission 2020) | 1358 | 405 | 1057 | 641 | 123 | |
- | | National Total 2015 | 1084 | 289 | 816 | 636 | 97 | | + | | National Total 2018 (submission 2020) | 1084 | 289 | 816 | 636 | 97 | |
| | | | ||
| Reduction Commitment 2020 [%] | -39 | -21 | -13 | -5 | -26 | | | Reduction Commitment 2020 [%] | -39 | -21 | -13 | -5 | -26 | | ||
- | | Reduction Commitment 2020 [kt] | 928 | 377 | 1029 | 608 | 104 | | + | | Reduction Commitment 2020 [kt] | 929 | 377 | 1029 | 609 | 104 | |
| Projected Emissions 2020 WM [%] | | Projected Emissions 2020 WM [%] | ||
| Projected Emissions 2020 WAM [%] | 36 | 39 | 34 | 11 | 30 | | | Projected Emissions 2020 WAM [%] | 36 | 39 | 34 | 11 | 30 | | ||
Line 18: | Line 18: | ||
| Projected Emissions 2030 WM [%] | 62 | 60 | 32 | 20 | 43 | | | Projected Emissions 2030 WM [%] | 62 | 60 | 32 | 20 | 43 | | ||
| Projected Emissions 2030 WAM [%] | | Projected Emissions 2030 WAM [%] | ||
- | |< | + | |< |
Line 29: | Line 29: | ||
^ With measures [% reduction vs. 2005] | | ^ With measures [% reduction vs. 2005] | | ||
| | | | ||
- | ^ With additional measures [kt] | | + | ^ With additional measures [kt] | |
^ With additional measures [% reduction vs. 2005] | | ^ With additional measures [% reduction vs. 2005] | | ||
^ Amendment of 13< | ^ Amendment of 13< | ||
Line 51: | Line 51: | ||
[{{: | [{{: | ||
\\ | \\ | ||
- | |||
- | ===== Context ===== | ||
- | |||
- | Reliable data on historic emissions are key to the political process and to decisions on abatement technology promotion. However, future emission paths also do have the power to shed a new light on these discussions. Therefore, greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants are inventoried and projected in the same database system using the same structure of detailed time series. | ||
- | |||
- | For the National Air Pollution Control Programme, a new database within this system was created in 2018 that is basically a copy of the German inventory database. In addition, multiple scenarios are taken into account, sketching development of activity data and emission factors up to 2030 and in many cases to 2035. The new system features integrated assessment for both greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants. In particular, existing projections for GHG can be applied to air pollution contexts. The databases used also allow for the flexible combination of distinct scenarios for specific sectors and source categories to add up to a complete projection of the inventory. Furthermore, | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | ===== Policies ===== | ||
- | |||
- | For the past few years, climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been an important issue in society and politics. GHG emission inventories have seen a lot of attention as a consequence. However, there have also been a couple of air pollution related headlines, including " | ||
- | * Energy | ||
- | * Phase-out of coal use for energy production until 2038 with significant reductions before 2030 | ||
- | * Recent high Emission Tradring System (ETS) prices and low natural gas prices cause a shift in the energy market, abandoning coal even faster | ||
- | * Increased production of renewable energy | ||
- | * New regulations with stricter limit values for some installation types | ||
- | |||
- | * Transport | ||
- | * New vehicle regulations, | ||
- | * More electric vehicles, more public transport | ||
- | |||
- | * Agriculture | ||
- | * New " | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | ===== Projections ===== | ||
- | |||
- | For its national emission projections, | ||
- | |||
- | Deviating from this comprehensive projection of activity data, the transport emissions are calculated with the aid of the TREMOD model (" | ||
- | |||
- | The activity rates and the emission factors for the emission projections of the sector NFR 3 " | ||
- | |||
- | The NMVOC emissions from NFR sector 2.D.3, containing emissions from solvent and solvent-containing product use and their manufacturing, | ||
- | |||
- | Starting from these activity data set as a basis, future emission factors for air pollutants were modelled for each of the policies and measures individually. For each measure, the relevant emissions factors were identified and the existing historic time series in the database was extended to 2020, 2025, 2030 and partially to 2035. Then, the future activity data for those years were multiplied with the modelled emission factors to derive projected emissions. This approach allows detailed calculations of mitigations attributable to each measure. The following documentation shows the calculation of emission projections in detail. | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | ==== Calculation documentation of emission projections ==== | ||
- | |||
- | Data basis of the emission projections calculation is the inventory of the submission 2020 with the processing of the emission data. The calculations of the emission values are based on the NEC directive EU 2016/2284 as well as the German regulations for the implementation of the Federal Immission Control Act (BImSchV), which define plant-specific limit values. | ||
- | |||
- | Because the limit values in the BImSchVs and in the BAT conclusions are usually given in mg / Nm< | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 1: Fuel-specific conversion factors for air pollutants according to Rentz et al. (2002)__ | ||
- | ^ Pollutant ^ Fuel | ||
- | | NO< | ||
- | |::: | Lignite | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil | 3.39 | ||
- | |::: | Light heating oil | 3.49 | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas | 3.57 | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas (gas turbines) | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil (gas turbines) | 3.53 | ||
- | | SO< | ||
- | |::: | Lignite | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil | 3.39 | ||
- | |::: | Light heating oil | 3.49 | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas | 4.00 | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas (gas turbines) | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil (gas turbines) | 3.53 | ||
- | | TSP | Hard coal | ||
- | |::: | Lignite | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil | 3.39 | ||
- | |::: | Light heating oil | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas | 3.24 | ||
- | |::: | Natural gas (gas turbines) | ||
- | |::: | Heavy fuel oil (gas turbines) | 3.50 | ||
- | |||
- | Furthermore, | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | === Measures that have already been implemented or measures whose implementation has been decided are assigned to the WM scenario. === | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reductions in large combustion plants through implementation of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | Measures for large combustion plants (LCP) that have already been implemented through the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | The calculations always follow the same procedure. Important elements are the specific limit values of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | According to expert estimates, the plant inventory is split as in Table 2 according to the RTI (in MW). These (cumulative) proportions are necessary for the calculation of the mean values in relation to the upper range of limit values for each source category and pollutant. | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 2: Proportionate inventory of LCPs according to their power range__ | ||
- | ^ RTI in MW ^ Proportion | ||
- | | < | ||
- | | 100-300 | ||
- | | 300-1000 | ||
- | | > | ||
- | |< | ||
- | |||
- | __Example 1__ | ||
- | |||
- | The concrete procedure is illustrated using the example of NO< | ||
- | |||
- | The specific limit values for lignite can be found in Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 BAT 20. With a reference oxygen of 6 per cent, the plants are differentiated according to size and specified with the limit value in mg / Nm< | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 3: Emission limit values (yearly averages) when using raw lignite in existing plants__ | ||
- | ^ Plant size according to RTI in MW ^ max limit value in mg/ | ||
- | | < | ||
- | | 100-300 | ||
- | | > | ||
- | |< | ||
- | |||
- | The emission factor is calculated in (1). | ||
- | |||
- | (1) emission factor (lignite) = 112.70 kg/TJ * 4.5% + 75.13 kg/TJ * 14.5% + 73.04 kg/TJ * 81% = 75.13 kg/TJ | ||
- | |||
- | The comparison with the current submission 2020 shows that the calculated emission factor (75.13 kg / TJ) is lower than that of the reference value from 2018 (76.8 kg / TJ). Thus from 2020 onwards the emission factor will be replaced by the new value and used for the projection. | ||
- | |||
- | This procedure is analogous for the evaluation of all source groups and pollutants. | ||
- | |||
- | __Example 2__ | ||
- | |||
- | According to the Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442 of 31 July 2017 on Conclusions on Best Available Techniques (BAT) according to Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council for large combustion plants, the maximum permissible pollutant emission for NO< | ||
- | |||
- | After the conversion, a projected NO< | ||
- | |||
- | (2) emission factor (heavy fuel oil) = 300 mg/Nm^3 / 3.39 = 88.5 kg/TJ. | ||
- | |||
- | __Special features of the evaluation of the emission factors__ | ||
- | |||
- | When using liquid fuels in LCP, the specific conversion factor of 3.39 (see Table 1) is used for the assessment of NO< | ||
- | |||
- | When evaluating NO< | ||
- | |||
- | When calculating the SO< | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in large combustion plants burning lignite through the coal phase-out: | ||
- | |||
- | The German Coal Phase-Out Law (“Kohleausstiegsgesetz”) from August 2020 stipulates to gradually phase out coal power plants burning lignite until 31 December 2038. The activity rates and emission factors of public heating and thermal power plants for NO< | ||
- | |||
- | The starting point for the evaluation of the activity rates as a result of the phase-out is the current total RTI. According to the official phase-out path of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy((https:// | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 4: Decommissioning path of the districts according to RTI in the years 2018 to 2039__ | ||
- | ^ District | ||
- | ^ Lausitz | ||
- | ^ Central Germany | 2650 | ||
- | ^ Rhineland | ||
- | ^ Total | ||
- | |< | ||
- | |||
- | The total emissions per district for the years 2020 to 2035 are now calculated from the relative values of the years under review and the total emissions from the 2020 submission (1123133.92 kt NO< | ||
- | |||
- | According to the values in Table 4 the relative value of the Lausitz district is calculated as: | ||
- | |||
- | (3) RTI proportion (Lausitz in 2020) = (6000 MW)/(17170 MW) = 0.35. | ||
- | |||
- | The total emission for the area in 2020 results from the total emission from the submission and the calculated share of the Lausitz district: | ||
- | |||
- | (4) total NOx emission (Lausitz in 2020) = 1123133.92 kt * 0.35 = 392475.45 kt. | ||
- | |||
- | In addition, the distribution of the electricity and heat generation per district is necessary for the estimation of the activity rates. For this purpose, the share of NO< | ||
- | |||
- | Finally, the activity rates of the individual districts for the years 2020 to 2035 result from the product of the calculated share of the reference value from 2018 for electricity or heat generation and the total emissions of the districts for the year under consideration. The activity rates of the Helmstedt and Hesse districts will be updated with 0 for electricity and heat generation from 2020, since the phase-out has already been completed here. | ||
- | |||
- | When calculating the NO< | ||
- | |||
- | With the shutdown of the last block of a power plant, this plant is considered to be shut down and from this point in time it is no longer included in the calculation of the emission factor. This applies to the Schkopau power plants (Central Germany district) from 2035 onwards, Jänschwalde, | ||
- | |||
- | In the case of Boxberg IV in the Lausitz district, the time series will only be taken into account from 2013 onwards, as Unit R started continuous operation on 16 February 2012, initially on a test basis and finally officially as the last unit in October 2012, meaning that the Boxberg IV power plant will only have reliable data from 2013 onwards. | ||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in small combustion installations through the 1< | ||
- | |||
- | The amendment of the 1< | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 5: Emission factors for oil-fired small combustion installations (SCI)__ | ||
- | ^ Source Group ^ Fuel ^ NO< | ||
- | | Heat generation in SCI of the households | ||
- | | Heat generation in SCI in agriculture and horticulture | Light heating oil | 43.65 | ||
- | | Heat generation in SCI of the military services | Light heating oil | 43.65 | ||
- | | Heat generation in SCI of the other small consumers | ||
- | |||
- | Reductions of dust emissions from small combustion installations are achieved in the NFR sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5 through the implementation of the 1< | ||
- | |||
- | The report by Tebert et al. (2016) as well as the appendix show the fractions of fuel consumption in small combustion installations according to plant type and output range in absolute and relative sizes for 2030. In addition, a distinction is made between households (“Haushalte” (HH)) and commerce, trade, services (“Gewerbe, | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 6: Share of fuel used in small combustion installations in 2030 in EWS __ | ||
- | ^ plant type ^ HH-EF in kg/TJ ^ GHD-EF in kg/TJ ^ Proportion of HH in TJ in % ^ Proportion of GHD in TJ in % ^ | ||
- | | slow-burning stoves | ||
- | | tiled stoves | ||
- | | fireplaces with open combustion chamber | ||
- | | fireplaces with closed combustion chamber | ||
- | | pellet stoves | ||
- | | split log boilers (manually-stoked) (4-25 MW) | 41 | 41 | 4.9 | ||
- | | split log boilers (manually-stoked) (25-50 MW) | 13 | 13 | | ||
- | | split log boilers (manually-stoked) (> 50 MW) | 17 | 17 | 8.4 | ||
- | | wood chip boiler (4-25 MW) | | 12 | | 0.5 | | ||
- | | wood chip boiler (25-50 MW) | | ||
- | | wood chip boiler (>50 MW) | | 20 | | 14.4 | | ||
- | | pellet boilers (4-25 MW) | 14 | 14 | 6.8 | ||
- | | pellet boilers (25-50 MW) | 13 | 13 | 1.0 | 0.1 | | ||
- | | pellet boilers (>50 MW) | 14 | 14 | 1.1 | 0.1 | | ||
- | | bathroom boilers | ||
- | | cooking stoves | ||
- | | manually-stoked heating boilers (commercial, | ||
- | | injection furnaces | ||
- | | underfeeding furnaces | ||
- | | pre-boiler furnaces | | 21 | | 9.5 | | ||
- | ^ Weighted mean EWS ^ 43.44 | ||
- | |||
- | For the years 2020 and 2025, the emission factors were calculated using the reference value from the 2020 submission in such a way that a linear reduction in dust emissions takes place. | ||
- | |||
- | The emission factors of the source groups “Wärmeerzeugung in KFA der Landwirtschaft und Gärtnereien” and “Wärmeerzeugung in KFA der militärischen Dienststellen” result in the year 2030 from the same ratio as to “Wärmeerzeugung in KFA der Haushalte” in the reference year 2018. This is shown as an example for the case of “Wärmeerzeugung in KFA der Landwirtschaft und Gärtnereien” in (5). | ||
- | |||
- | (5) emission factor ("" | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in industrial processes through low-dust filter technology in sinter plants:** | ||
- | |||
- | The assumed potential for reducing dust emissions from sinter plants is taken from the final report of the UBA project Luft 2030 (Jörß et al., 2014((Jörß, | ||
- | |||
- | The emission factor for dust is calculated by dividing the given sizes of the emission factor for PM< | ||
- | |||
- | These calculated factors (emission factor dust and the split factors for PM< | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in industrial processes resulting from updated emissions factors in the nitric acid production: | ||
- | |||
- | The NO< | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in medium combustion plants through implementation of the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | The general conditions for the calculation of the pollutant emissions from medium combustion plants (MCP), gas turbines and combustion engine plants are regulated by the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | The data basis for the calculation is the submission 2020. The source categories are reassessed separately according to the pollutants and the relevant fuel inputs. The expected service life of the plants (in years) is taken into account (see Table 8) as well as a distinction is made between old and new plants and the RTI of the plants in MW (see Table 7). Table 7 shows the plant split for the various fuel uses taking into account the RTI. | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 7: Proportional plant split of the MCP according to fuel consumption and RTI__ | ||
- | ^ Plant split according to fuel consumption ^ RTI in MW ^ Proportion | ||
- | ^ Biomass | ||
- | | ::: | ||
- | | ::: | ||
- | ^ Lignite | ||
- | | ::: | ||
- | ^ Hard coal | ||
- | | ::: | ||
- | ^ Heavy fuel | ||
- | | ::: | ||
- | |< | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 8: Expected service life of MCP according to type of plant, pollutant and fuel use__ | ||
- | | ^ | ||
- | ^ Combustion plants - solid fuels | 20 years | | ||
- | ^ Combustion plants – liquid and gaseous fuels | 15 years | | ||
- | ^ gas and steam turbines (GuD) and gas turbines (GT) | 22 years | | ||
- | ^ internal combustion engines - biogas | 5 years | | ||
- | ^ internal combustion engines – other fuels | 10 years | | ||
- | |||
- | The new emission factors are always calculated according to the same pattern. The limit values of the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | If the current emission factor from the 2020 submission undercuts the calculated value, the current reference value is updated because it is already below the upper range according to the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | __Example: | ||
- | |||
- | The exact procedure is exemplified by the example of NO< | ||
- | |||
- | The basis for the calculation is the maximum amount of NO< | ||
- | |||
- | __Table 9: Limit values for solid biomass in MCP according to the power range for old and new plants__ | ||
- | ^ Fuel ^ Plant ^ | ||
- | | ::: | ::: | Power range in MW | ||
- | | ::: | ::: | 1-5 | > | ||
- | ^ Solid biomass (other solid biomass) | existing | 600 || 370 | | ||
- | ^ Solid biomass (other solid biomass) | new | | ||
- | |< | ||
- | |||
- | It is assumed that the service life of the plant is 20 years (see Table 8). In addition, it is assumed that an annual renewal of the plant will be implemented after the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | According to the assumption in 2025 (6 years after the regulation came into force) there is a proportion of 6/20 which fulfil the requirements of new plants and 14/20 which adhere to the limit values of old plants. In 2030, eleven years after the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | Taking into account the plants proportions per size measured in RTI in WM (see Table 9), a new emission factor of 153.01 kg / TJ for 2025 results, as shown in (6). | ||
- | |||
- | (6) emission factor (solid biomass in 2025) = 14/20 * {(6.5% + 17.7%) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8% * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 6/20 * {6.5% * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7% * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8% * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 153.01 kg/TJ. | ||
- | |||
- | Since the reference value from the 2020 submission (137.5 kg / TJ) is already below the calculated limit, it will be updated for the year 2025. The procedure for calculating the emission factor in 2030 is identical and is shown in (7). | ||
- | |||
- | (7) emission factor (solid biomass in 2030) = 9/20 * {(6.5% + 17.7%) * 250.4 kg/TJ + 75.8% * 154.4 kg/TJ} + 11/20 * {6.5% * 154.4 kg/TJ + 17.7% * 125.2 kg/TJ + 75.8% * 83.5 kg/TJ} = 132.46 kg/TJ | ||
- | |||
- | In 2030 the newly calculated limit value will be below the reference value, so that this is adopted as the new NO< | ||
- | |||
- | __Special Feature:__ | ||
- | |||
- | When calculating the NO< | ||
- | |||
- | According to the 44< | ||
- | |||
- | In some cases, data series have a strong deviation in the emission factors in the reference scenario compared to the remaining source groups with the fuel use of other liquid fuels. Therefore, the source groups of “Wärmeerzeugung in TA Luft-Anlagen der Landwirtschaft und Gärtnereien“ (for SO< | ||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in agriculture in the updated Thünen-Baseline-Projection: | ||
- | |||
- | The starting point for the WAM scenario were not the emissions from 2005, but the probable emissions that result from the updated Thünen baseline for the year 2030((Thuenen-Report 82 (2020): Thünen-Baseline 2020 – 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland, | ||
- | |||
- | Since the methods for calculating emissions improve or change between inventory submissions and these changes also have an impact on previous years, the NH< | ||
- | |||
- | According to the updated baseline 2020-2030, however, agricultural emissions for 2030 are only 485 kt NH< | ||
- | |||
- | - Reduction of the amount of energy crops for fermentation to about half the amount of the old baseline (effect: -22 kt NH< | ||
- | - Reduction of the amount of mineral fertilizer applied (from 1772 kt N to 1655 kt N) and a lower proportion of urea in the amount applied (effect: -19 kt NH< | ||
- | - Due to the new Fertilizing Ordinance (DÜV 2020), liquid manure (except for leachate) and poultry manure applied to uncultivated arable land must be incorporated within 1 hour. In addition, a decline in the prevalence of the " | ||
- | - There are also slight differences in the new baseline in the forecasted number of animals and animal performance. Additionally, | ||
- | |||
- | In total, according to the updated baseline, only 57 kt of NH< | ||
- | |||
- | === Additional measures that have not yet been implemented are assigned to the WAM scenario=== | ||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in pulp and paper production through amendment of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | According to the existing 13< | ||
- | |||
- | It is assumed for the sulphite process that all four plants located in Germany are operated with RTI of 50-300 MW. In the sense of a conservative estimate of the reduction potential, a maximum current emission factor of 300 mg / Nm< | ||
- | |||
- | (8) emission factor (sulphite process) = (2 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm^3) / (300 mg/Nm^3) = 0.57 kg/t | ||
- | |||
- | In the field of the sulphate process there are two plants with different boiler sizes in Germany. To calculate the reduction potential, the percentage distribution of the two plants per boiler size was calculated according to a combustion heat output in the range of 100-300 MW and more than 300 MW over all time series (2006 to 2018). For this purpose, the emission values of the individual years for the individual location or the individual plant are divided by the annual activity of both plants for each considered time series. The data basis for the calculation is the 2020 submission. This results in the estimates of the proportionate use of the various plant sizes for the past years up to 2018 with the plant-size-specific maximum emissions according to the daily mean value with 250 mg/ | ||
- | |||
- | (9) mean NOx emission (sulphate process) = 0.36 t/a * 250 mg/Nm^3 + 0.64 t/a * 200 mg/Nm^3 = 217.78 mg/Nm^3 | ||
- | |||
- | The emission factor for the sulfate process will be taken over from the 2020 submission in 2020, as no reduction is to be expected from the amendment to the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | (10) emission factor (sulphate process) = (1.75 kg/t * 85 mg/Nm^3) / (217.78 mg/Nm^3) = 0.68 kg/t | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in refineries through amendment of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | A possible amendment of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | First reductions are not expected until 2025, which is why the emission factors of the concerned source categories for 2020 correspond to the reference value from the 2020 submission. For plants using raw petrol (naphtha), light heating oil or other petroleum products as fuel, the new maximum emission level corresponds to the limit value of 85 mg / Nm< | ||
- | |||
- | The conversion is carried out for all source groups as shown in (11) using the example of refinery underfiring in LCP with light heating oil as fuel. | ||
- | |||
- | (11) NOx-emission (refinery underfiring with light heating oil) = 85 mg/Nm^3 / 3.49 = 24.4 kg/TJ | ||
- | |||
- | This results in emission factors of 24.4 kg / TJ for light heating oil and 25.1 kg / TJ for other petroleum products for 2025, 2030 and 2035. | ||
- | |||
- | For a total of twelve plants with heavy fuel oil as fuel input the bell regulation apply. First of all, the emission limit value according to the current 13< | ||
- | |||
- | (12) percentage reductio of NOx-emission (refineries) = 1 - (85 mg/Nm^3 / 274.75 mg/Nm^3) = 0.69 | ||
- | |||
- | A calculated reduction of approximate 69 per cent is assumed for the bell. The projected emission factors for the concerned source categories for 2025, 2030 and 2035 are now derived from the current emission factor of the source category under consideration from the 2020 submission minus the proportional reduction. | ||
- | |||
- | The conversion is carried out in the same way as in (13) for all source groups as shown in the example of refinery underfiring in LCP with light heating oil as fuel. | ||
- | |||
- | (13) NOx-emission (refinery underfiring with light heating oil) = (400 mg/Nm^3 * (1 - 0.69) / 3.39 = 36.5 kg/TJ | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Other reductions in large combustion plants through amendment of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | Emissions from other LCPs, which emerge from the energy balances, but cannot be clearly assigned to a specific fuel use or fuel mix and also show a reduction potential in the event of an amendment of the 13< | ||
- | |||
- | The emission factors for all non-gaseous materials other than coal for electricity and heat generation are considered and the maximum emission amount for NO< | ||
- | __Table 10: Estimated relative and absolute plant split of LCP according to operating time in the year__ | ||
- | ^ Operation time ^ RTI in MW ^ Proportion | ||
- | | <1500 h/a | | ||
- | | >1500 h/a | 214990 | ||
- | | Total | 261563 | ||
- | |||
- | Since the first reduction effects are not expected until 2025, the emission factors of the affected source groups for 2020 correspond to those of the reference value from the 2020 submission. The emission factors will be recalculated for 2025, 2030 and 2035. First, the limit value of 85 mg / Nm< | ||
- | |||
- | The calculation is shown using the example of the source category of electricity generation in LCP of the other industrial power plants with the fuel consumption of light heating oil (reference value: 103.2 kg / TJ) in (14), whereby the procedure is analogous for all other source categories. | ||
- | |||
- | (14) NOx emission (electicity generation in LCP of the other industiral power plants) = (85 mg/Nm^3 / 3.39) * 82.2% + 103.2 kg/TJ * 17.8% = 39.0 kg/TJ | ||
- | |||
- | |||
- | **Reduction in gas and steam turbines through amendment of the 13< | ||
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- | In the case of LCPs with gas and steam turbines, the assumed requirement is a stricter limit value of 20 mg / Nm< | ||
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- | For GuD, the proportional NO< | ||
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- | (15) NOx emission (electricity generation in LCP of the combined cycle plants of public power plants) = (31.602 mg/(Nm^3) * 60% + 20 mg/Nm^3 * 40%) / 1.15 = 23.44 kg/TJ | ||
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- | The calculation of the reductions from 2021 on in the area of gas turbines is considered analogous to that of GuD with a reduction of 30 per cent to 20 mg / Nm< | ||
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- | (16) NOx emission (gas turbines in natural gas compressor stations) = ((72.45 mg/Nm^3 - 10 mg/Nm^3) * 70% + 20 mg/Nm^3 * 30%) / 1.15 = 43.23 kg/TJ | ||
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- | **Reduction of motorised private transport by strengthening the environmental alliance (e. g. public transport, cycling and walking):** | ||
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- | The WAM scenario includes one further measure in the transport sector: the promotion of public transport, cycling and walking. Therefore, the activity rates for in town road transport with passenger cars were reduced by 5 per cent compared to the WM scenario. | ||
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- | **Reduction in agriculture through a bundle of measures quantified as an agricultural package:** | ||
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- | Basis for modeling of NH< | ||
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- | In the projections of NAPCP 2019, two variants had been calculated: | ||
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- | - The measures are carried out in full. | ||
- | - Small and very small farms are excluded from the measures. | ||
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- | Small farm exclusions resulted in mitigation being smaller by approx. 3 per cent. In the updated projections, | ||
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- | The inventory model can only calculate complete scenarios. The effect of individual measures was quantified by starting with the baseline scenario and sequentially calculating scenarios with mitigation measures added until arriving at the complete WAM scenario. Because mitigation effects of measures are interdependent, | ||
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- | * 70 per cent of the cattle and pig slurry is digested in biogas plants (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__The proportion of liquid manure going into a biogas plant was set to 70 per cent for both cattle and pigs (the proportions of solid cattle manure and poultry manure that are digested remain as in 2018).\\ \\ Calculated emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | * No use of broadcast application on uncultivated arable land and incorporation of liquid manure within an hour. This measure only affects liquid manure (slurry, leachate, digestates).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The distribution frequencies already reduced in the baseline for broadcast application with incorporation <1h and <4h (the latter only exists for manure according to DÜV 2020) were added to the corresponding frequencies for trailing hose application and set to zero for broadcast application. In addition, the incorporation of leachate within 4 hours, which is still permitted under DÜV 2020, was reduced to incorporation within 1 hour.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | * Uncovered external storage facilities for liquid manure / digestates are at least covered with a plastic film or comparable technology. A one-to-one implementation in inventory model GAS-EM is not possible, since for digestates only " | ||
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- | * Air scrubber systems in 75 per cent of the agricultural operations regulated under IED (permitted after type of procedure G in the 4< | ||
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- | * 75 per cent of the agricultural operations that are permitted after type of procedure V in the 4< | ||
- | * Sows: an effective emission reduction of 63.0 per cent was calculated for 54.2 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Weaners: an effective emission reduction of 59.4 per cent was calculated for 45.8 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Fattening pigs: an effective emission reduction of 59.4 per cent was calculated for 27.1 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Laying hens: an effective emission reduction of 53.2 per cent was calculated for 85.1 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Broilers: an effective emission reduction of 59.0 per cent was calculated for 92.8 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Pullets: an effective emission reduction of 58.9 per cent was calculated for 82.1 per cent of the animals | ||
- | * Ducks: an effective emission reduction of 62.5 per cent was calculated for 20.6 per cent of the animals\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | * 50 per cent of slurry storage underneath slatted floors is replaced by external storage with at least a plastic film cover\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The current distribution frequency for " | ||
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- | * 5 per cent reduction of N excretion by protein-optimized feeding in cattle husbandry\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The N and TAN excretions in the inventory model were reduced with a reduction factor of 0.95.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | * Application of liquid manure on tilled fields and grassland only with injection / slot techniques or acidification, | ||
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- | * Organic farming on 20 per cent of the area (Measure 3.4.5.3 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ Underlying changes were taken from parallel projections for the 2021 Projection Report. With an increased expansion of organic farming to 20 per cent of the agricultural area by the year 2030 (at the same time the goal of the German Sustainability Strategy), in comparison to a more moderate expansion to 14 per cent, there is in particular a reduction in the mineral fertilizer applied. In addition, projected increase of animal performance is slightly reduced compared to the baseline. There are further changes for the cultivated areas and yields. However, the latter have no additional impact on the level of NH< | ||
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- | * Reduction of the N balance to 70 kg / ha (Measure 3.4.5.1 of the Climate Protection Programme 2030)\\ To achieve the climate protection goal (also a goal of the German Sustainability Strategy) of the overall balance of 70 kg N / ha (three-year average) in 2030, the N input must be further reduced beyond the previous measures (see 2021 Projection Report).\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ The N supply via mineral fertilizers was reduced by 8 kg / ha.\\ \\ Calculated additional emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | * Subtraction of 10 per cent on the total reduction\\ \\ __Implementation in 2030:__ In order to take into account an incomplete implementation of the measures, such as exceptions for small and very small farms, the overall reduction is reduced by 10 per cent at the end.\\ \\ Calculated cumulative emission reduction in kt NH< | ||
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- | **Reduction in industrial processes through the optional measure g) of the National Air Pollution Control Programme: | ||
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- | For the additional emission reduction of sulfur dioxide, the optional measure g) from the National Air Pollution Control Programme according to Article 6 and Article 10 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284 is assumed to be adopted and continued for the WAM scenario. It is assumed that a future lower-sulfur fuel use or more efficient exhaust gas cleaning technology will result in a 20 per cent reduction in the emission factor for sulfur dioxide in the source groups with the highest sulfur dioxide emissions in the NFR sectors of industrial processes (NFR 2). It is further assumed that the first reduction effects will show up by 1 January 2025 at the latest and that implementation has to be completed beforehand. | ||
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- | Since the first reduction effects are to be expected from 2025 on, it is assumed that the emission value for 2020 corresponds to that of the reference value from the 2020 submission. Thus, the emission factors for 2025, 2030 and 2035, as shown in (17) using the example of the glass production of flat glass (reference value 1.96 kg / TJ), are recalculated. | ||
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- | (17) SO2 emission (glass production of flat glas) = 1.96 kg/TJ * 80% = 1.57 kg/TJ | ||
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- | The results as presented at the top of the page have been widely circulated and discussed with sector experts from industry, science and public authorities. | ||
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- | ===== Projection Adjustments ===== | ||
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- | The projections of the pollutant emission development in accordance with Directive (EU) 2016/2284 shows that the reduction obligations in accordance with Annex II of this directive for NO< | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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- | **NO< | ||
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- | According to Annex IV Part 4 Paragraph 1 of Directive (EU) 2016/2284, an adjustment can be made for the calculation of NO< | ||
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- | Without the application of these adjustments, | ||
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- | The adjustment takes into account the application of different emission factors from the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA((https:// | ||
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- | To determine the adjustment according to Annex IV Part 4 from 2030 onwards, the emission factors of the HBEFA known in 2016 must be used as a basis, in this case the emission factors of the HBEFA version 3.2 (published in July 2014). | ||
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- | The additional conditions for an applicability of the adjustment from the year 2025 onwards as listed in the last subparagraph of Article 5 (1) are fulfilled, since the emission factors in different versions of HBEFA do not arise from Germany’s implementation or enforcement of Union source-based air pollution control legislation but increased knowledge about realistic NO< | ||
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- | For calculating the projections submitted in 2021, new emission factors were used according to HBEFA version 4.1 (published in August 2019). In version 4.1, many parameters were updated on which the determination of the emission factors is based, whereby the emission factors for NO< | ||
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- | ===== Recalculations ===== | ||
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- | Due to recalculations for the emission inventory submission 2020, all emission reduction potentials had to be updated compared to the emission inventory submission 2018, upon which the emission projections reporting in 2019 was based. Furthermore, | ||
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- | The following figures show the differences between submission 2018 and 2020 for past emissions as well as the differences between the emission projections reported in 2019 and the current projections in the WM and the WAM scenario for each pollutant. For each pollutant a breif explanation of the most relevant reasons for the occurring differences is given. | ||
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- | For NO< | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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- | The coal phase-out is also the reason for the differences between the two WM scenarios for SO< | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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- | The current NMVOC emission projections show a different trend than the 2019 projections in both scenarios, caused by updated economic projections, | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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- | The current WM scenario for NH< | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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- | For fine PM (PM< | ||
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- | First, there are higher PM< | ||
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- | {{: | ||
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