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general:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2022/03/03 07:30] – [SO2] Update to 2022 submission hausmanngeneral:uncertainty_evaluation:start [2022/03/03 07:46] (current) – [PM2.5] Update to submission 2022 hausmann
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nmvoc.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nmvoc.png?nolink}}
  
-NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products are well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -15% to +29% in 2019, which amounts to about 500kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, the top five contributors are [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B - Manure Management - Dairy cattle]], [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.1.b Manure management - Non-dairy cattle]], [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:domestic_solvent_use:start|2.D.3.a - Domestic Solvent Use, including Fungicides]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] as well as [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:coating_applications:start|2.D.3.d - Coating Application]]. As with the other pollutants, details are to be found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nmvoc.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.+NMVOC emissions and trends are driven by solvent use. While solvent contents of most products are well known, application context and use statistics introduce significant model error bars. Agriculture emissions of NMVOC are, while not very high in value, very uncertain and also contribute to the overall error margins. In sum, NMVOC emissions show moderate to high uncertainty. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -15.9% to +31.3% in 2020, which amounts to about 490kt of NMVOC. In order of significance, the top five contributors are [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B - Manure Management - Dairy cattle]], [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.1.b Manure management - Non-dairy cattle]], [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:domestic_solvent_use:start|2.D.3.a - Domestic Solvent Use, including Fungicides]], [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] as well as [[sector:ippu:other_solvent_and_product_use:coating_applications:start|2.D.3.d - Coating Application]]. As with the other pollutants, details are to be found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nmvoc.xlsx | spreadsheet file}}.
  
 ==== NH3 ==== ==== NH3 ====
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nh3.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:nh3.png?nolink}}
  
-Uncertainty in the NH<sub>3</sub> emission national total is moderate and mainly caused by agriculture sources, in particular [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.a - Animal manure applied to soils]]. [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.3 - Manure management - Swine]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.1 - Inorganic N-fertilizers]] do also play significant roles. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -9.5% to +9.9% in 2019, which amounts to about 120kt of NH<sub>3</sub>. You can drive your own analysis with the numbers found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nh3.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} attached.+Uncertainty in the NH<sub>3</sub> emission national total is moderate and mainly caused by agriculture sources, in particular [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.2.a - Animal manure applied to soils]]. [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B.3 - Manure management - Swine]], [[sector:agriculture:manure_management:start|3.B - Manure Management - Dairy cattle]] and [[sector:agriculture:agricultural_soils:start|3.D.a.1 - Inorganic N-fertilizers]] do also play significant roles. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -9.4% to +9.7% in 2020, which amounts to about 100kt of NH<sub>3</sub>. You can drive your own analysis with the numbers found in the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_nh3.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} attached.
  
 ==== PM2.5 ==== ==== PM2.5 ====
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 {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:pm25.png?nolink}} {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:pm25.png?nolink}}
  
-PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are associated with high uncertainties. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -16.5% to +19% in 2019, which amounts to about 30kt of PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Two sectors contribute the bulk of these errors: [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] and [[sector:ippu:bulk_products:handling_of_bulk_products:start|2.L - Other production, consumption, storage, transportation or handling of bulk products]]. Germany is also one of the few countries that reports abrasion under [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:railways:start|1.A.3.c - Transport: Railways]], adding noticeably to both emission values and uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_pm2.5.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details.+PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions are associated with high uncertainties. The national total has a 95% confidence interval of about -17.1% to +19.6% in 2020, which amounts to about 30kt of PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Two sectors contribute the bulk of these errors: [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:stationary_small_combustion:residential|1.A.4.b.i - Residential: Stationary Combustion]] and [[sector:ippu:bulk_products:handling_of_bulk_products:start|2.L - Other production, consumption, storage, transportation or handling of bulk products]]. Germany is also one of the few countries that reports abrasion under [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:railways:start|1.A.3.c - Transport: Railways]], adding noticeably to both emission values and uncertainties. Please refer to the {{general:uncertainty_evaluation:uncertainty_details_pm2.5.xlsx | spreadsheet file}} for details.
  
 ===== Other pollutants ===== ===== Other pollutants =====
  
 There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow. There is currently no uncertainty assessment for additional air pollutants, heavy metals and POPs. Germany seeks to expand the list of pollutants covered as resources allow.