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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:residential [2021/03/24 09:29] – [Table] kotzulla | sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:residential [2022/02/08 08:46] – [Table] kotzulla | ||
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^ Method | ^ Method | ||
- | | T1 | NS, M | CS, D | **L/T**: CO | | + | | T1, T2 |
[[f> | [[f> | ||
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==== Activity data ==== | ==== Activity data ==== | ||
- | + | Activity data are taken from annual fuel delieveries data provided in line 66: ' | |
- | + | ||
- | Activity data are taken from annual fuel delieveries data provided in line 66: ' | + | |
__Table 1: Sources for consumption data in 1.A.4.b ii__ | __Table 1: Sources for consumption data in 1.A.4.b ii__ | ||
Line 33: | Line 31: | ||
__Table 2: Annual over-all fuel deliveries to residential mobile sources, in terajoules__ | __Table 2: Annual over-all fuel deliveries to residential mobile sources, in terajoules__ | ||
- | | | + | | |
- | ^ Gasoline | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | ^ Biogasoline | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** ^ 2.177 ^ 2.395 ^ 2.395 ^ 2.411 ^ 3.510 ^ 4.236 ^ 4.172 ^ 3.879 ^ 4.118 ^ 4.411 ^ 4.412 ^ 4.406 ^ 4.253 ^ 4.221 ^ | + | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** ^ 2,177 ^ 2,395 ^ 2,395 ^ 2,411 ^ 3,510 ^ 4,236 ^ 4,172 ^ 3,879 ^ 4,118 ^ 4,411 ^ 4,412 ^ 4,406 ^ 4,418 ^ 4,410 ^ |
- | source: AGEB, 2019 [((bibcite 1))] and TREMOD MM [((bibcite 2))] | + | source: AGEB, 2020 [(AGEB2020)] and TREMOD MM [(KNOERR2020b)] |
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_AD.png | + | |
- | : 1A4bii_AD_bio.png | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | These primary activity data can be distributed onto 2- and 4-stroke engines used in households via annual shares from Knörr et al. (2019b) [((bibcite 2))]. | + | These primary activity data can be distributed onto 2- and 4-stroke engines used in households via annual shares from Knörr et al. (2020b) [(KNOERR2020b)]. |
__Table 3: Annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ | __Table 3: Annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ | ||
- | | | + | | |
- | ^ 2-Stroke | + | ^ 2-Stroke |
- | ^ 4-Stroke | + | ^ 4-Stroke |
- | source: TREMOD MM [((bibcite 2))] | + | ^ 2-Stroke Boats | 10,1% | 10,3% | 8,80% | 5,61% | 2,16% | 2,19% | 2,23% | 2,28% | 2,31% | 2,34% | 2,37% | 2,39% | 2,40% | 2,41% | 2,43% | |
+ | ^ 4-Stroke Boats | 1,2% | 1,8% | 3,3% | 5,6% | 8,5% | 8,8% | 9,2% | 9,5% | 9,8% | 10,1% | 10,3% | 10,5% | 10,7% | 10,9% | 11,0% | | ||
+ | | | ||
+ | source: TREMOD MM [(KNOERR2020b)] | ||
__Table 4: Resulting estimates for fuel consumption in 2- and 4-stroke engines, in terajoules__ | __Table 4: Resulting estimates for fuel consumption in 2- and 4-stroke engines, in terajoules__ | ||
- | | | + | | |
- | | **2-stroke | + | | **2-stroke |
- | ^ Gasoline | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | ^ Biogasoline | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | | **4-stroke | + | | **4-stroke machinery** |
- | ^ Gasoline | + | ^ Gasoline |
- | ^ Biogasoline | + | ^ Biogasoline |
- | | | + | | **2-stroke |
- | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** | + | ^ Gasoline |
+ | ^ Biogasoline | ||
+ | | **4-stroke boats** | ||
+ | ^ Gasoline | ||
+ | ^ Biogasoline | ||
+ | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.b ii** | ||
==== Emission factors ==== | ==== Emission factors ==== | ||
The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | ||
- | For all **main pollutants**, | + | For all **main pollutants**, |
Here, as no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for gasoline are applied to bioethanol, too. | Here, as no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for gasoline are applied to bioethanol, too. | ||
- | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [((bibcite 2))].) | + | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [(KNOERR2020b)].) |
__Table 4: Annual country-specific emission factors from TREMOD MM< | __Table 4: Annual country-specific emission factors from TREMOD MM< | ||
- | | | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2010** | **2011** | **2012** | **2013** | **2014** | **2015** | **2016** | **2017** | **2018** | **2019** | | + | ^ ^ |
- | | **4-stroke machinery** | + | | **4-stroke machinery** |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC< | + | ^ NMVOC< |
- | ^ NMVOC< | + | ^ NMVOC< |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ CO | + | ^ CO |
- | | **2-stroke machinery** | + | | **2-stroke machinery** |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC< | + | ^ NMVOC< |
- | ^ NMVOC< | + | ^ NMVOC< |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ CO | + | ^ CO |
- | | **2- and 4-stroke machinery** | + | | **2- and 4-stroke machinery** |
- | ^ TSP< | + | ^ TSP< |
- | ^ Pb | + | ^ Pb |
< | < | ||
< | < | ||
< | < | ||
< | < | ||
- | < | + | < |
< | < | ||
<WRAP center round info 100%> | <WRAP center round info 100%> | ||
- | With respect to the emission factors applied for particulate matter, given the circumstances during test-bench measurements, | + | With respect to the emission factors applied for particulate matter, given the circumstances during test-bench measurements, |
</ | </ | ||
- | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [((bibcite 3))]. | + | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [(EMEPEEA2019)]. |
- | + | ||
> **NOTE:** For the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, no clear indication is available, whether or not condensables are included. | > **NOTE:** For the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, no clear indication is available, whether or not condensables are included. | ||
- | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | + | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, |
===== Discussion of emission trends ===== | ===== Discussion of emission trends ===== | ||
- | > **NFR 1.A.4.b ii** is no key source. | + | __Table: Outcome of Key Category Analysis__ |
+ | | for: ^ CO ^ | ||
+ | | by: | Level & Trend | | ||
- | > Given the limited quality of gasoline-deliveries data from NEB line 66, the following emission trends are of limited significance only. | + | Given the limited quality of gasoline-deliveries data from NEB line 66, the following emission trends are of limited significance only. |
- | ++ Unregulated pollutants (NH,,3,,, HMs, POPs, ...) | + | === Unregulated pollutants (Ammonia, HMs, POPs, ...) === |
For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_NH3.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
Here, as the emission factors for heavy metals (and POPs) are derived from tier1 default values, the emission' | Here, as the emission factors for heavy metals (and POPs) are derived from tier1 default values, the emission' | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | === Regulated pollutants |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_Cd.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | + | ||
- | ++ Regulated pollutants | + | |
- | + | ||
- | +++ Nitrogen oxides (NO,,x,,), Sulphur dioxide (SO,,2,,) | + | |
For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | ||
+ | However, especially for CO and NOx, trends are strongly influenced by the changes in annual fuel deliveries as provided in NEB line 66. | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_NOx.PNG | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4bii_EM_SOx.PNG | + | {{ : |
- | [[/ | + | |
- | +++ Particulate matter | + | == Particulate matter |
Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | ||
Line 152: | Line 147: | ||
Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | ||
- | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [((bibcite 3))], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM,,2.5,,. | + | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [(EMEPEEA2019)], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM<sub>2.5</ |
+ | |||
+ | {{ : | ||
- | [[gallery size=" | ||
- | : 1A4bii_EM_PM.PNG | ||
- | [[/ | ||
===== Recalculations ===== | ===== Recalculations ===== | ||
- | __Table 5: Revised annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke engines__ | + | **Primary activity** data fro NEB line 66 were revised for 2018 and 2019. |
- | | | + | |
- | | **2-stroke machinery** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | | **4-stroke machinery** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | __Table 5: Resulting revised annual fuel consumptions | + | Furthermore, |
- | | | + | |
- | | **2-stroke machinery** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | | **4-stroke machinery** |||||||||||||| | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
+ | __Table 5: Revised annual shares of 2- and 4-stroke equipment and leisure boats__ | ||
+ | | | ||
+ | | **4-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **2-stroke machinery** | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **4-stroke boats** | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | | **2-stroke boats** | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
- | As all **emission factors** remain unchanged, recalculations occur only for 2017, resulting from the application of **activity data** from the now finalised National Energy Balance 2017. | ||
- | __Table 7: Revised total inland fuel deliveries | + | | |
- | ||= ||||||= **gasoline** ||||||= **biogasoline** ||= | + | | **4-stroke machinery** |
- | ||= ||= **total** ||= **2-stroke** ||= **4-stroke** ||= **total** ||= **2-stroke** ||= **4-stroke** ||= | + | ^ current submission |
- | ||~ Submission 2020 ||> 4,228 ||> 1.010 ||> 3,218 ||> 178 ||> 42.6 ||> 135.7 ||> | + | ^ previous submission |
- | ||~ Submission 2019 ||> 4,228 ||> 1.010 ||> 3,218 ||> 180 ||> 43.0 ||> 137.0 ||> | + | ^ absolute change |
- | ||~ absolute change ||> 0 ||> 0 ||> 0 ||> -2 ||> -0.4 ||> -1.3 ||> | + | ^ relative change |
- | ||~ relative change ||> 0.00% ||> 0.00% ||> 0.00% ||> -0.96% ||> -0.98% ||> -0.96% ||> | + | | **2-stroke |
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
+ | | **4-stroke | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | | **2-stroke | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | | **OVER-ALL CONSUMPTION** | | | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ previous submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
<WRAP center round info 60%> | <WRAP center round info 60%> | ||
For pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following [[general: | For pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following [[general: | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | |||
===== Uncertainties ===== | ===== Uncertainties ===== | ||
- | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023 (Knörr et al. (2009)) [((bibcite 5))]: " | + | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023 (Knörr et al. (2009)) [(KNOERR2009)]: " |
Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | ||
Line 210: | Line 213: | ||
===== Planned improvements ===== | ===== Planned improvements ===== | ||
- | > Besides a **routine revision** of the **TREMOD MM** model, no specific improvements are planned | + | Besides a **routine revision** of the **TREMOD MM** model, no specific improvements are planned. |
===== FAQs ===== | ===== FAQs ===== | ||
Line 216: | Line 219: | ||
**//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | **//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | ||
- | The EF provided in [((bibcite 4))] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' | + | The EF provided in [(RENTZ2008)] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' |
- | + | ||
- | ------ | + | |
- | [[bibliography]] | + | [(AGEB2020> |
- | : 1 : AGEB, 2019: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; | + | [(KNOERR2020b> |
- | : 2 : Knörr et al. (2019b): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery (TREMOD MM) 2019, Heidelberg, | + | [(EMEPEEA2019> |
- | : 3 : EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019, Copenhagen, 2019. | + | [(RENTZ2008> |
- | : 4 : Rentz et al., 2008: Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, | + | [(KNOERR2009> |
- | : 5 : Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; | + | |
- | [[/ | + |