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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:start [2021/01/17 11:28] – kotzullasector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:start [2022/01/27 07:04] – [Discussion of emission trends] kotzulla
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 ===== Methodology ===== ===== Methodology =====
  
-=== Activity data ===+====Activity data ====
  
-Specific mileage data for all different types of road vehicles are generated within TREMOD [((bibcite 1))]. +Specific mileage data for all different types of road vehicles are generated within TREMOD (Knörr et al., 2021a) [(KNOERR2021a)]. 
 The following table provides an overview of annual mileages.  The following table provides an overview of annual mileages. 
  
-__Table 1: Mileage data for road vehicles 1990-2019, in 10^^6^^ kilometers__  +__Table 1: Mileage data for road vehicles 1990-2020, in 10<sup>6</sup> kilometers__  
-|                                                   |  **1990**  |  **1995**  |  **2000**  |  **2005**  |  **2006**  |  **2007**  |  **2008**  |  **2009**  |  **2010**  |  **2011**  |  **2012**  |  **2013**  |  **2014**  |  **2015**  |  **2016**  |  **2017**  |  **2018**  | **2019**  | +|                                ^  1990    ^  1995    ^  2000    ^  2005    ^  2010    ^  2011    ^  2012    ^  2013    ^  2014    ^  2015    ^  2016    ^  2017    ^  2018    ^  2019    ^  2020    ^ 
-| **MILEAGE: COMBUSTION ENGINES**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ||||||||||||||||||| +^ Passenger Cars                 |  588,898 |  487,373 |  464,231 |  514,293 |  568,833 |  582,833 |  588,342 |  597,222 |  611,403 |  621,230 |  630,488 |  637,690 |  639,989 |  649,851 |  564,736 | 
-^ Passenger Cars                                    |    488,574 |    530,900 |    560,300 |    574,776 |    580,455 |    584,060 |    581,068 |    591,437 |    595,363 |    605,066 |    606,320 |    611,348 |    621,905 |    629,261 |    636,322 |    641,629 |    641,266 |           | +^ Light Duty Vehicles            |   13,965 |   24,193 |   32,374 |   36,422 |   39,382 |   39,788 |   40,259 |   40,710 |   43,190 |   45,436 |   47,627 |   49,953 |   52,264 |   54,084 |   52,151 | 
-^ Light Duty Vehicles                               |     17,964 |     27,917 |     36,585 |     41,203 |     37,802 |     38,927 |     39,282 |     39,748 |     40,218 |     40,694 |     41,165 |     41,650 |     42,033 |     45,609 |     47,709 |     49,838 |     52,157 |           | +^ Heavy Duty Vehicles            |   40,827 |   54,279 |   62,659 |   60,974 |   62,979 |   64,519 |   63,810 |   64,318 |   64,822 |   65,823 |   66,697 |   67,346 |   68,059 |   68,968 |   66,635 | 
-^ Heavy Duty Vehicles                               |     40,827 |     54,310 |     62,624 |     60,953 |     63,401 |     65,505 |     65,166 |     60,752 |     62,836 |     64,303 |     63,610 |     64,240 |     64,714 |     65,613 |     66,596 |     67,476 |     68,457 |           | +| //thereof: Lorries & Trucks//  |   36,657 |   50,362 |   58,621 |   56,877 |   58,799 |   60,324 |   59,572 |   60,064 |   60,553 |   61,408 |   62,138 |   62,833 |   63,539 |   64,396 |   63,045 | 
-| //thereof: Lorries & Trucks//                     |     36,657 |     50,362 |     58,621 |     56,877 |     59,374 |     61,483 |     61,244 |     56,751 |     58,799 |     60,312 |     59,635 |     60,191 |     60,539 |     61,394 |     62,339 |     63,296 |     64,263 |           | +| //thereof: Buses//             |    4,170 |    3,916 |    4,038 |    4,098 |    4,180 |    4,195 |    4,238 |    4,254 |    4,269 |    4,415 |    4,560 |    4,512 |    4,520 |    4,572 |    3,590 | 
-| //thereof: Buses//                                |      4,170 |      3,948 |      4,003 |      4,076 |      4,028 |      4,022 |      3,922 |      4,002 |      4,037 |      3,991 |      3,975 |      4,048 |      4,175 |      4,219 |      4,258 |      4,180 |      4,195 |           | +^ Two-wheelers                   |   51,554 |  132,273 |  141,013 |   88,061 |   46,636 |   41,741 |   36,830 |   32,719 |   29,615 |   27,589 |   25,507 |   23,954 |   22,888 |   22,186 |   21,101 | 
-^ Two-wheelers                                      |     15,734 |     11,851 |     14,816 |     15,399 |     15,294 |     15,622 |     15,458 |     15,664 |     15,192 |     14,793 |     14,402 |     14,157 |     14,184 |     14,487 |     14,492 |     14,489 |     14,624 |           | +| //thereof: Mopeds//            |    5,917 |    3,830 |    5,042 |    6,298 |    6,333 |    6,120 |    5,919 |    5,856 |    5,713 |    5,821 |    5,718 |    5,578 |    5,621 |    5,643 |    5,602 | 
-^ **Ʃ from fuel combustion**                        ^    563,099 ^    624,978 ^    674,326 ^    692,331 ^    696,952 ^    704,114 ^    700,974 ^    707,602 ^    713,608 ^    724,856 ^    725,498 ^    731,394 ^    742,836 ^    754,969 ^    765,119 ^    773,432 ^    776,504 ^           ^ +| //thereof: Motorcycles//       |   45,637 |  128,443 |  135,970 |   81,763 |   40,303 |   35,621 |   30,911 |   26,862 |   23,902 |   21,768 |   19,789 |   18,376 |   17,267 |   16,543 |   15,499 | 
-| **MILEAGE: ELECTRIC ENGINES**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ||||||||||||||||||| +| **TOTAL MILEAGE**              ^  695,243 ^  698,118 ^  700,277 ^  699,750 ^  717,829 ^  728,881 ^  729,242 ^  734,968 ^  749,029 ^  760,077 ^  770,319 ^  778,942 ^  783,200 ^  795,089 ^  704,622 ^
-^ Passenger Cars                                    |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         53 |         92 |        162 |        255 |        379 |        625 |        996 |           | +
-^ Light Duty Vehicles                               |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         13 |         19 |         23 |         30 |         43 |         74 |        119 |           | +
-^ Heavy Duty Vehicles                               |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         19 |         19 |         21 |         22 |         23 |         26 |         32 |           | +
-| //thereof: Lorries & Trucks//                     |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         13 |         13 |         14 |         14 |         14 |         16 |         21 |           | +
-| //thereof: Buses//                                |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          6 |          6 |          7 |          8 |          9 |         10 |         11 |           | +
-^ Two-wheelers                                      |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         19 |         26 |         32 |         38 |         44 |         50 |         55 |           | +
-^ **Ʃ from electric energy**                        ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^          0 ^        104 ^        156 ^        238 ^        345 ^        489 ^        775 ^      1,203 ^           ^ +
-| **TOTAL MILEAGE: COMBUSTION + ELECTRIC ENGINES**                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ||||||||||||||||||| +
-^ Passenger Cars                                    |    488,574 |    530,900 |    560,300 |    574,776 |    580,455 |    584,060 |    581,068 |    591,437 |    595,363 |    605,066 |    606,373 |    611,439 |    622,067 |    629,516 |    636,701 |    642,254 |    642,262 |           | +
-^ Light Duty Vehicles                               |     17,964 |     27,917 |     36,585 |     41,203 |     37,802 |     38,927 |     39,282 |     39,748 |     40,218 |     40,694 |     41,178 |     41,669 |     42,056 |     45,639 |     47,752 |     49,912 |     52,276 |           | +
-^ Heavy Duty Vehicles                               |     40,827 |     54,310 |     62,624 |     60,953 |     63,401 |     65,505 |     65,166 |     60,752 |     62,836 |     64,303 |     63,629 |     64,259 |     64,735 |     65,635 |     66,620 |     67,502 |     68,490 |           | +
-| //thereof: Lorries & Trucks//                     |     36,657 |     50,362 |     58,621 |     56,877 |     59,374 |     61,483 |     61,244 |     56,751 |     58,799 |     60,312 |     59,648 |     60,204 |     60,553 |     61,408 |     62,353 |     63,311 |     64,284 |           | +
-| //thereof: Buses//                                |      4,170 |      3,948 |      4,003 |      4,076 |      4,028 |      4,022 |      3,922 |      4,002 |      4,037 |      3,991 |      3,981 |      4,055 |      4,182 |      4,227 |      4,267 |      4,190 |      4,206 |           | +
-^ Two-wheelers                                      |     15,734 |     11,851 |     14,816 |     15,399 |     15,294 |     15,622 |     15,458 |     15,664 |     15,192 |     14,793 |     14,422 |     14,183 |     14,216 |     14,525 |     14,536 |     14,539 |     14,679 |           | +
-^ **Ʃ over-all**                                    ^    563,099 ^    624,978 ^    674,326 ^    692,331 ^    696,952 ^    704,114 ^    700,974 ^    707,602 ^    713,608 ^    724,856 ^    725,602 ^    731,550 ^    743,074 ^    755,314 ^    765,608 ^    774,207 ^    777,707 ^           ^ +
-source: TREMOD 6.02 [((bibcite 1))] +
- +
-++ Images: Overview annual mileage for considered vehicle types +
-[[gallery size="medium"]] +
-: AD_Mileage.png  +
-: AD_Mileage_el.png  +
-[[/gallery]]+
  
 ===== Discussion of emission trends ===== ===== Discussion of emission trends =====
  
-> Please see sub-category chapters [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:tyre_and_brake_wear| 1.A.3.b vi - Automobile Tyre and Brake Wear ]] and [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:road_abrasion| 1.A.3.b vii - Automobile Road Abrasion.+> Please see sub-category chapters [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:tyre_and_brake_wear| 1.A.3.b vi - Automobile Tyre and Brake Wear ]] and [[sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:road_transport:abrasive_emissions_from_road_vehicles:road_abrasion| 1.A.3.b vii - Automobile Road Abrasion ]]. 
  
 ===== Recalculations ===== ===== Recalculations =====
  
-Recalculations were carried out due to a fundamental revision of the TREMOD software.+With both **activity data** and **emission factors** unrevised, emission estimates remain unaltered compared to last year's submission.
  
  
-__Table 2: Revised mileage data , in 10^^6^^ kilometers__ 
-| | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2006** | **2007** | **2008** | **2009** | **2010** | **2011** | **2012** | **2013** | **2014** | **2015** | **2016** | **2017** | 
-| **Passenger Cars** |||||||||||||||||  
-^ Submission 2021 | 488,574 | 530,900 | 560,300 | 574,776 | 580,455 | 584,060 | 581,068 | 591,437 | 595,363 | 605,066 | 606,373 | 611,439 | 622,067 | 629,516 | 636,701 | 642,254 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 492,280 | 535,524 | 565,345 | 580,075 | 581,651 | 585,242 | 582,199 | 592,595 | 596,536 | 606,237 | 607,522 | 612,576 | 624,573 | 637,014 | 650,866 | 659,589 | 
-^ absolute change | -3,706 | -4,624 | -5,045 | -5,300 | -1,197 | -1,181 | -1,131 | -1,158 | -1,173 | -1,170 | -1,148 | -1,137 | -2,506 | -7,498 | -14,166 | -17,335 | 
-^ relative change | -0,75% | -0,86% | -0,89% | -0,91% | -0,21% | -0,20% | -0,19% | -0,20% | -0,20% | -0,19% | -0,19% | -0,19% | -0,40% | -1,18% | -2,18% | -2,63% | 
-| **Light Duty Vehicles** |||||||||||||||| 
-^ Submission 2021 | 17,964 | 27,917 | 36,585 | 41,203 | 37,802 | 38,927 | 39,282 | 39,748 | 40,218 | 40,694 | 41,178 | 41,669 | 42,056 | 45,639 | 47,752 | 49,912 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 14,259 | 21,794 | 30,941 | 36,251 | 36,855 | 37,847 | 37,461 | 37,429 | 37,583 | 38,204 | 38,732 | 38,966 | 39,343 | 40,962 | 40,938 | 41,596 | 
-^ absolute change | 3,706 | 6,124 | 5,645 | 4,953 | 947 | 1,080 | 1,821 | 2,319 | 2,635 | 2,490 | 2,446 | 2,703 | 2,713 | 4,677 | 6,814 | 8,317 | 
-^ relative change | 26,0% | 28,1% | 18,2% | 13,7% | 2,57% | 2,85% | 4,86% | 6,20% | 7,01% | 6,52% | 6,31% | 6,94% | 6,89% | 11,4% | 16,6% | 20,0% | 
-|**HDVs: Trucks** ||||||||||||||||| 
-^ Submission 2021 | 36,657 | 50,362 | 58,621 | 56,877 | 59,374 | 61,483 | 61,244 | 56,751 | 58,799 | 60,312 | 59,648 | 60,204 | 60,553 | 61,408 | 62,353 | 63,311 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 36,657 | 48,951 | 55,441 | 54,213 | 56,159 | 57,873 | 57,819 | 53,974 | 56,418 | 58,171 | 56,785 | 57,167 | 58,482 | 59,398 | 60,858 | 61,489 | 
-^ absolute change | 0 | 1,412 | 3,180 | 2,664 | 3,214 | 3,610 | 3,425 | 2,776 | 2,380 | 2,141 | 2,863 | 3,038 | 2,071 | 2,010 | 1,495 | 1,822 | 
-^ relative change | 0,00% | 2,88% | 5,73% | 4,91% | 5,72% | 6,24% | 5,92% | 5,14% | 4,22% | 3,68% | 5,04% | 5,31% | 3,54% | 3,38% | 2,46% | 2,96% | 
-|**HDVs: Buses** ||||||||||||||||| 
-^ Submission 2021 | 4,170 | 3,948 | 4,003 | 4,076 | 4,028 | 4,022 | 3,922 | 4,002 | 4,037 | 3,991 | 3,981 | 4,055 | 4,182 | 4,227 | 4,267 | 4,190 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 4,170 | 4,216 | 4,138 | 3,936 | 3,938 | 3,826 | 3,736 | 3,751 | 3,751 | 3,729 | 3,751 | 3,729 | 3,718 | 3,709 | 3,735 | 3,741 | 
-^ absolute change | 0 | -268 | -134 | 140 | 90 | 196 | 186 | 250 | 286 | 262 | 230 | 326 | 463 | 517 | 531 | 449 | 
-^ relative change | 0,00% | -6,36% | -3,25% | 3,56% | 2,27% | 5,13% | 4,98% | 6,66% | 7,61% | 7,03% | 6,12% | 8,74% | 12,5% | 13,9% | 14,2% | 12,0% | 
-| **Motorcycles & Mopeds** ||||||||||||||||| 
-^ Submission 2021 | 15,734 | 11,851 | 14,816 | 15,399 | 15,294 | 15,622 | 15,458 | 15,664 | 15,192 | 14,793 | 14,422 | 14,183 | 14,216 | 14,525 | 14,536 | 14,539 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 15,734 | 12,615 | 15,100 | 16,800 | 17,288 | 14,904 | 15,322 | 15,753 | 15,786 | 16,208 | 16,421 | 16,539 | 16,801 | 16,801 | 16,539 | 16,539 | 
-^ absolute change | 0 | -764 | -284 | -1,401 | -1,994 | 718 | 136 | -89 | -594 | -1,415 | -2,000 | -2,355 | -2,585 | -2,277 | -2,003 | -1,999 | 
-^ relative change | 0,00% | -6,06% | -1,88% | -8,34% | -11,53% | 4,81% | 0,88% | -0,56% | -3,76% | -8,73% | -12,2% | -14,2% | -15,4% | -13,6% | -12,1% | -12,1% | 
-|**REVISED TOTAL MILEAGE** ||||||||||||||||| 
-^ Submission 2021 | 563,099 | 624,978 | 674,326 | 692,331 | 696,952 | 704,114 | 700,974 | 707,602 | 713,608 | 724,856 | 725,602 | 731,550 | 743,074 | 755,314 | 765,608 | 774,207 | 
-^ Submission 2020 | 563,099 | 623,099 | 670,965 | 691,275 | 695,892 | 699,691 | 696,537 | 703,503 | 710,075 | 722,549 | 723,212 | 728,976 | 742,918 | 757,885 | 772,936 | 782,954 | 
-^ absolute change | 0 | 1,879 | 3,361 | 1,056 | 1,060 | 4,422 | 4,437 | 4,099 | 3,534 | 2,307 | 2,390 | 2,575 | 156 | -2,570 | -7,328 | -8,746 | 
-^ relative change | 0,00% | 0,30% | 0,50% | 0,15% | 0,15% | 0,63% | 0,64% | 0,58% | 0,50% | 0,32% | 0,33% | 0,35% | 0,02% | -0,34% | -0,95% | -1,12% | 
  
  
-For changes in the **emission factors** applied, please refer to the sub-ordinate chapters on **tyre and brake wear** and **road abrasion**. 
  
-**Emission estimates** 
  
-<WRAP center round info 60%> 
-For more information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following chapter [[general:recalculations:start | 8.1 - Recalculations]]. 
-</WRAP> 
  
  
-===== Planned improvements ===== 
  
-Besides the **routine revision of the TREMOD model**, no specific improvements are planned.  
  
-===== FAQs ===== 
  
-------+===== Planned improvements ===== 
 + 
 +Besides the **routine revision of the TREMOD model**, no specific improvements are planned. 
  
-[[bibliography]] +[(KNOERR2021a> Knörr et al. (2021a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2035, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2021.)]. 
-: 1 : Knörr et al. (2019a): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2030, sowie TREMOD, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg & Berlin, 2019. +[(EMEPEEA2019> EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019)]
-: 2 : EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019 +
-[[/bibliography]]+