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--- sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:agriculture_and_forestry:agriculture [2021/02/15 15:30] – [Table] kotzulla
+++ sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:agriculture_and_forestry:agriculture [2022/03/22 09:49] (current) – [Recalculations] kotzulla
@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 ====Activity data====
-Subsector-specific consumption data is included in the primary fuel-delivery data are available from NEB line 67: 'Commercial, trade, services and other consumers' (AGEB, 2019) [((bibcite 1))].
+Subsector-specific consumption data is included in the primary fuel-delivery data are available from NEB line 67: 'Commercial, trade, services and other consumers' (AGEB, 2021) [(AGEB2021)].
 __Table 1: Sources for primary fuel-delivery data__
@@ Line 20: / Line 20: @@
 || as of 1995 || **AGEB** - National Energy Balance, line 67: 'Gewerbe, Handel, Dienstleistungen u. übrige Verbraucher'  ||
-Following the deduction of energy inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, 2019) [((bibcite 2))], the remaining amounts of gasoline and diesel oil are apportioned onto off-road construction vehicles (NFR 1.A.2.g vii) and off-road vehicles in commercial/institutional use (1.A.4. ii) as well as agriculture and forestry (NFR 1.A.4.c ii) based upon annual shares derived from TREMOD-MM (Knörr et al. (2019b)) (cf. [[[ 1-a-4-mobile-combustion | NFR 1.A.4 - mobile ]]]).
+Following the deduction of energy inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, 2021) [(BAFA2021)], the remaining amounts of gasoline and diesel oil are apportioned onto off-road construction vehicles (NFR 1.A.2.g vii) and off-road vehicles in commercial/institutional use (1.A.4. ii) as well as agriculture and forestry (NFR 1.A.4.c ii) based upon annual shares derived from TREMOD-MM (Knörr et al. (2021b) [(KNOERR2021b)] (cf. NFR 1.A.4 - mobile).
 __Table 2: Annual contribution of agricultural vehicles and mobile machinery to the primary diesel<sup>1</sup> fuels delivery data provided in NEB line 67__
-|  **1990**  |  **1995**  |  **2000**  |  **2005**  |  **2010**  |  **2011**  |  **2012**  |  **2013**  |  **2014**  |  **2015**  |  **2016**  |  **2017**  |  **2018**  |  **2019**  |
+^  1990  ^  1995  ^  2000  ^  2005  ^  2006  ^  2007  ^  2008  ^  2009  ^  2010  ^  2011  ^  2012  ^  2013  ^  2014  ^  2015  ^  2016  ^  2017  ^  2018  ^  2019  ^  2020  ^
-|      47,6% |      45,6% |      43,9% |      46,2% |      47,5% |      47,2% |      47,3% |      48,0% |      47,8% |      48,3% |      48,5% |      48,5% |      48,4% |      48,4% |
+|  47.6% |  45.6% |  43.9% |  46.2% |  45.1% |  45.9% |  46.4% |  47.2% |  47.5% |  47.2% |  47.3% |  48.0% |  47.8% |  48.3% |  48.5% |  48.5% |  48.4% |  48.4% |  48.3% |
-<sup>1</sup>no gasoline used in agricultural vehicles and mobile machinery
+<sup>1</sup> no gasoline used in agricultural vehicles and mobile machinery
 __Table 3: Annual mobile fuel consumption in agriculture, in terajoules__
-|                       |  **1990**  |  **1995**  |  **2000**  |  **2005**  |  **2010**  |  **2011**  |  **2012**  |  **2013**  |  **2014**  |  **2015**  |  **2016**  |  **2017**  |  **2018**  |  **2019**  |
+|                       ^  1990   ^  1995   ^  2000   ^  2005   ^  2006   ^  2007   ^  2008   ^  2009   ^  2010   ^  2011   ^  2012   ^  2013   ^  2014   ^  2015   ^  2016   ^  2017   ^  2018   ^  2019   ^  2020   ^
-^ Diesel Oil            |     53.263 |     44.622 |     41.696 |     37.942 |     42.024 |     42.864 |     42.137 |     44.531 |     46.259 |     48.905 |     51.027 |     52.561 |     49.009 |     49.591 |
+^ Diesel Oil            |  53,263 |  44,622 |  41,696 |  37,942 |  37,462 |  38,245 |  39,332 |  42,296 |  42,024 |  42,864 |  42,137 |  44,531 |  46,259 |  48,905 |  51,027 |  52,561 |  49,006 |  49,679 |  50,450 |
-^ Biodiesel             |          0 |          0 |          0 |      2.424 |      3.222 |      2.991 |      2.974 |      2.641 |      2.843 |      2.675 |      2.705 |      2.806 |      2.849 |      2.824 |
+^ Biodiesel             |       0 |       0 |       0 |   2,424 |   4,141 |   4,707 |   3,737 |   3,379 |   3,222 |   2,991 |   2,974 |   2,641 |   2,843 |   2,675 |   2,705 |   2,806 |   2,849 |   2,830 |   4,191 |
-| **Ʃ 1.A.4.c ii (i)** ^     53.263 ^     44.622 ^     41.696 ^     40.366 ^     45.246 ^     45.855 ^     45.111 ^     47.172 ^     49.102 ^     51.580 ^     53.732 ^     55.367 ^     51.858 ^     52.415 ^
+| **Ʃ 1.A.4.c ii (i)**  ^  53,263 ^  44,622 ^  41,696 ^  40,366 ^  41,602 ^  42,952 ^  43,069 ^  45,675 ^  45,246 ^  45,855 ^  45,111 ^  47,172 ^  49,102 ^  51,580 ^  53,732 ^  55,367 ^  51,855 ^  52,509 ^  54,641 ^
 ==== Emission factors ====
 The emission factors applied here are of rather different quality:
-For all **main pollutants**, **carbon monoxide** and **particulate matter**, annual IEF modelled within TREMOD MM [((bibcite 3))] are used, representing the sector's vehicle-fleet composition, the development of mitigation technologies and the effect of fuel-quality legislation.
+For all **main pollutants**, **carbon monoxide** and **particulate matter**, annual IEF modelled within TREMOD MM are used, representing the sector's vehicle-fleet composition, the development of mitigation technologies and the effect of fuel-quality legislation.
 __Table 3: Annual country-specific emission factors<sup>1</sup>, in kg/TJ__
-|                 |  **1990**  |  **1995**  |  **2000**  |  **2005**  |  **2010**  |  **2011**  |  **2012**  |  **2013**  |  **2014**  |  **2015**  |  **2016**  |  **2017**  |  **2018**  | **2019**  |
+|                 ^  1990  ^  1995  ^  2000  ^  2005  ^  2006  ^  2007  ^  2008  ^  2009  ^  2010  ^  2011  ^  2012  ^  2013  ^  2014  ^  2015  ^  2016  ^  2017  ^  2018  ^  2019  ^  2020  ^
-^ NH<sub>3</sub>  |      0,153 |      0,156 |      0,159 |      0,162 |      0,163 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,164 |      0,165 |     0,165 |
+^ NH<sub>3</sub>  |   0,15 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |   0,16 |
-^ NMVOC           |        258 |        232 |        205 |        165 |        124 |        118 |        112 |        106 |        100 |       93,8 |       88,6 |       83,8 |       79,1 |      74,8 |
+^ NMVOC           |    258 |    232 |    205 |    165 |    157 |    150 |    144 |    131 |    124 |    118 |    112 |    106 |   99,7 |   93,8 |   88,6 |   83,8 |   79,1 |   74,8 |   70,6 |
-^ NO<sub>x</sub>  |        874 |        886 |        916 |        832 |        682 |        655 |        629 |        605 |        581 |        560 |        541 |        523 |        506 |       490 |
+^ NO<sub>x</sub>  |    874 |    886 |    916 |    832 |    808 |    784 |    760 |    713 |    682 |    655 |    629 |    605 |    581 |    560 |    541 |    523 |    506 |    489 |    471 |
-^ SO<sub>x</sub>  |       79,6 |       60,5 |       14,0 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |       0,37 |      0,37 |
+^ SO<sub>x</sub>  |   79,6 |   60,5 |   14,0 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |   0,37 |
-^ BC<sup>3</sup>  |      125,1 |      109,4 |       93,1 |       74,7 |       57,4 |       54,8 |       52,4 |       50,1 |       47,4 |       44,8 |       42,2 |       39,8 |       37,5 |      35,3 |
+^ PM<sup>2</sup>  |    125 |    109 |   93,1 |   74,7 |   71,0 |   67,8 |   65,2 |   60,1 |   57,4 |   54,8 |   52,4 |   50,1 |   47,4 |   44,8 |   42,2 |   39,8 |   37,5 |   35,4 |   33,2 |
-^ PM<sup>2</sup>  |        229 |        201 |        171 |        134 |       97,1 |       91,5 |       86,2 |       81,5 |       76,3 |       71,4 |       66,9 |       62,7 |       58,6 |      54,9 |
+^ BC<sup>3</sup>  |    229 |    201 |    171 |    134 |    126 |    119 |    114 |    103 |   97,1 |   91,5 |   86,2 |   81,5 |   76,3 |   71,4 |   66,9 |   62,7 |   58,6 |   54,9 |   51,3 |
-^ CO              |        882 |        834 |        779 |        674 |        555 |        536 |        518 |        502 |        484 |        468 |        453 |        441 |        428 |       416 |
+^ CO              |    882 |    834 |    779 |    674 |    653 |    633 |    616 |    575 |    555 |    536 |    518 |    502 |    484 |    468 |    453 |    441 |    428 |    416 |    403 |
 <sup>1</sup> due to lack of better information: similar EF are applied for fossil and biofuels \\
 <sup>2</sup> EF(PM<sub>2.5</sub>) also applied for PM<sub>10</sub> and TSP (assumption: > 99% of TSP consists of PM<sub>2.5</sub>)\\
-<sup>3</sup> estimated via a f-BCs as provided in [((bibcite 3))], Chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road, note to Table 3-1: Tier 1 emission factors for off-road machinery \\
+<sup>3</sup> estimated via a f-BCs as provided in [(EMEPEEA2019)], Chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road, note to Table 3-1: Tier 1 emission factors for off-road machinery \\
-> **NOTE:** With respect to the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, given the circumstances during test-bench measurements, condensables are most likely included at least partly.[[footnote]] During test-bench measurements, temperatures are likely to be significantly higher than under real-world conditions, thus reducing condensation. On the contrary, smaller dillution (higher number of primary particles acting as condensation germs) together with higher pressures increase the likeliness of condensation. So over-all condensables are very likely to occur but different to real-world conditions. [[/footnote]]
+> **NOTE:** With respect to the country-specific emission factors applied for particulate matter, given the circumstances during test-bench measurements, condensables are most likely included at least partly. During test-bench measurements, temperatures are likely to be significantly higher than under real-world conditions, thus reducing condensation. On the contrary, smaller dillution (higher number of primary particles acting as condensation germs) together with higher pressures increase the likeliness of condensation. So over-all condensables are very likely to occur but different to real-world conditions.
-> For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, please refer to [[[ appendix2.3-HM-from-mobile-sources | Appendix 2.3 - Heavy Metal (HM) exhaust emissions from mobile sources]]] and [[[ appendix2.4-POPs-from-mobile-sources | Appendix 2.4 - Persistent Organic Pollutant (POP) exhaust emissions from mobile sources ]]].
+> For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, please refer to Appendix 2.3 - Heavy Metal (HM) exhaust emissions from mobile sources and Appendix 2.4 - Persistent Organic Pollutant (POP) exhaust emissions from mobile sources.
-[!--
+===== Recalculations =====
-+ __Discussion of emission trends__
+With **emissions factors** unrevised, recalculated emission estimates result solely from the implementation of the now finalized NEB 2019.
-++ Unregulated pollutants (NH,,3,,, HMs, POPs)
+__Table 4: Revised diesel-oil consumption 2019, in [TJ]__
+|                      ^  2019   ^
+^ current submission   |  52,509 |
+^ previous submission  |  52,415 |
+^ absolute change      |    94.2 |
+^ relative change      |   0.18% |
-For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption.
+<WRAP center round info 60%>
+For **pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates reported for Base Year and 2019**, please see the recalculation tables following chapter [[general:recalculations:start| 8.1 - Recalculations]].
+</WRAP>
-[[gallery size="medium"]]
+===== Planned improvements =====
-: EM_1A2gvii_NH3.PNG
-: EM_1A2gvii_Cd.PNG
-[[/gallery]]
-++ Regulated pollutants (NO,,x,,, SO,,2,,)
+Besides a routine revision of the underlying model, no specific improvements are planned.
-For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation.
+[(AGEB2021> AGEB, 2021: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2019.html, (Aufruf: 23.11.2021), Köln & Berlin, 2021.)]
+[(BAFA2021> BAFA, 2021: Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Amtliche Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;
-[[gallery size="medium"]]
+URL: https://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Energie/Mineraloel/moel_amtliche_daten_2018_dezember.html, Eschborn, 2021.)]
-: EM_1A2gvii_NOx.PNG
+[(KNOERR2021b> Knörr et al. (2021b): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F.: ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery (TREMOD MM) 2021, Heidelberg, 2021.)]
-: EM_1A2gvii_SOx.PNG
+[(EMEPEEA2019> EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019, Copenhagen, 2019.)]
-[[/gallery]]
+[(KNOERR2009> Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; final report; URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/461/publikationen/3937.pdf, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich, 2009.)]
-++ Particulate matter (PM,,2.5,,, PM,,10,,, and TSP)
-Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005.
-Nonetheless, the decrease of the over-all emission trend was and still is amplified by the expanding use of particle filters especially to eliminate soot emissions.
-Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates.
-[[gallery size="medium"]]
-: EM_1A2gvii_PM.PNG
-: EM_1A2gvii_TSP(Pb).PNG
-[[/gallery]]
---]
-+ __Recalculations__
-Revisions in **activity data** result from slightly adapted NCVs and biofuel shares (2015-2017) as well as the implementation of primary activity data from the now finalised NEB 2017.
-__Table 5: Revised annual mobile fuel consumption in agriculture, 2015-2017, in terajoules__
-||=                   		||=	**2015** ||=	**2016** ||=	**2017** ||=
-||~	Submission 2020	||>	54,190	||>	56,531	||>	58,245	||>
-||~	Submission 2019	||>	54,188	||>	56,529	||>	57,905	||>
-||~	absolute change	||>	2      	||>	2       	||>	340   	||>
-||~	relative change	||>	0.003%	||>	0.004%	||>	0.583%	||>
-As, in contrast, all **emission factors** remain unrevised compared to last year's susbmission, emission estimates for the years as of 2015 change in accordance with the underlying activity data.
-> For **information on the impacts on emission estimates for Base Year and 2017**, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following chapter [[[recalculations | 8.1 - Recalculations]]].
-------
-[[bibliography]]
-: 1 : AGEB, 2019: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2017.html, (Aufruf: 29.11.2019), Köln & Berlin, 2019.
-: 2 : BAFA, 2019: Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, BAFA): Amtliche Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;
-URL: https://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Energie/Mineraloel/moel_amtliche_daten_2017_dezember.html, Eschborn, 2019.
-: 3 : Knörr et al. (2018b): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F. (2019b): ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery (TREMOD MM) 2018, Heidelberg, 2019.
-: 4 : EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook – 2019, Copenhagen, 2019.
-: 5 : Rentz et al., 2008: Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, FKZ 205 67 444, UBA Texte | 01/2008, January 2008 - URL: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/nationaler-durchfuehrungsplan-unter-stockholmer
-[[/bibliography]]

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