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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:commercial_and_institutional [2021/04/06 09:52] – kotzulla | sector:energy:fuel_combustion:small_combustion:mobile_small_combustion:commercial_and_institutional [2022/03/22 09:36] – [Recalculations] kotzulla | ||
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^ Method | ^ Method | ||
| T1, T2 | NS, M | CS, D, M | //no key category// | | T1, T2 | NS, M | CS, D, M | //no key category// | ||
- | |||
===== Methodology ===== | ===== Methodology ===== | ||
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==== Activity data ==== | ==== Activity data ==== | ||
- | Sector-specific **diesel** consumption data are included in the primary fuel-delivery data available from NEB line 67: ' | + | Sector-specific **diesel** consumption data are included in the primary fuel-delivery data available from NEB line 67: ' |
__Table 1: Sources for primary fuel-deliveries data__ | __Table 1: Sources for primary fuel-deliveries data__ | ||
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|| as of 1995 || NEB line 67: ' | || as of 1995 || NEB line 67: ' | ||
- | Following the deduction of diesel oil inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, | + | Following the deduction of diesel oil inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, |
__Table 2: Annual contribution of NFR 1.A.4.a ii to the over-all amounts of diesel oil provided in NEB line 67__ | __Table 2: Annual contribution of NFR 1.A.4.a ii to the over-all amounts of diesel oil provided in NEB line 67__ | ||
- | | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2010** | **2011** | **2012** | **2013** | **2014** | **2015** | **2016** | **2017** | **2018** | **2019** | | + | ^ |
- | | 7,01% | 6,65% | 6,99% | 7,18% | 6,52% | 6,36% | 6,21% | 5,96% | 5,82% | 5,73% | 5,83% | 5,78% | 5,68% | | + | | 7.01% | 6.65% | 6.99% | 7.18% | 6.86% | 6.80% | 6.59% | 6.52% | 6.52% | 6.36% | 6.21% | 5.96% | 5.82% | 5.73% | 5.83% | 5.78% | 5.68% | 5.59% |
- | source: | + | source: |
As the NEB does not distinguish into specific biofuels, consumption data for biodiesel are calculated by applying Germany' | As the NEB does not distinguish into specific biofuels, consumption data for biodiesel are calculated by applying Germany' | ||
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__Table 3: Annual fuel consumption, | __Table 3: Annual fuel consumption, | ||
- | | | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2010** | **2011** | **2012** | **2013** | **2014** | **2015** | **2016** | **2017** | **2018** | **2019** | | + | | ^ |
- | ^ Diesel Oil | 7.847 | 6.508 | 6.646 | 5.894 | 5.773 | 5.770 | 5.533 | 5.524 | 5.629 | 5.810 | 6.145 | 6.257 | 5.749 | 5.726 | | + | ^ Diesel Oil | |
- | ^ Biodiesel | + | ^ Biodiesel |
- | ^ LPG | + | ^ LPG |
- | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.a ii** ^ | + | | **Ʃ 1.A.4.a ii** ^ 10,634 ^ 9,958 ^ 10,907 ^ 10,803 ^ |
{{ : | {{ : | ||
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The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | The emission factors used here are of rather different quality: | ||
- | Basically, for all **main pollutants**, | + | Basically, for all **main pollutants**, |
As no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for diesel oil are applied to biodiesel, too. | As no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for diesel oil are applied to biodiesel, too. | ||
__Table 4: Annual country-specific emission factors from TREMOD MM, in kg/TJ__ | __Table 4: Annual country-specific emission factors from TREMOD MM, in kg/TJ__ | ||
- | | | **1990** | **1995** | **2000** | **2005** | **2010** | **2011** | **2012** | **2013** | **2014** | **2015** | **2016** | **2017** | **2018** | **2019** | | + | | ^ |
- | | **Diesel fuels**< | + | | **Diesel fuels**< |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC | + | ^ NMVOC |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ CO | 856 | 796 | 725 | 560 | 429 | 407 | 387 | 368 | 351 | 338 | 329 | 322 | 318 | 314 | | + | ^ CO | 856 | 796 | 725 | 560 | 530 | 502 | 476 | 451 | |
- | | **LPG** | + | | **LPG** |
- | ^ NH< | + | ^ NH< |
- | ^ NMVOC | + | ^ NMVOC |
- | ^ NO< | + | ^ NO< |
- | ^ SO< | + | ^ SO< |
- | ^ BC< | + | ^ BC< |
- | ^ PM< | + | ^ PM< |
- | ^ CO | 114 | 114 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | | + | ^ CO | 114 | 114 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | |
< | < | ||
< | < | ||
- | < | + | < |
<WRAP center round info 100%> | <WRAP center round info 100%> | ||
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</ | </ | ||
- | For lead (Pb) from leaded gasoline and corresponding TSP emissions, additional emissions are are calculated from 1990 to 1997 based upon contry-specific emission factors from [((bibcite 3))]. | + | <WRAP center round info 100%> |
- | + | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | |
- | For information on the **emission factors for heavy-metal and POP exhaust emissions**, | + | </ |
===== Discussion of emission trends ===== | ===== Discussion of emission trends ===== | ||
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==== Unregulated pollutants ==== | ==== Unregulated pollutants ==== | ||
- | {{ : | ||
For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption. | ||
Line 88: | Line 86: | ||
==== Regulated pollutants ==== | ==== Regulated pollutants ==== | ||
- | **Nitrogen oxides | + | ===Nitrogen oxides |
For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation. | ||
Line 94: | Line 92: | ||
{{ : | {{ : | ||
- | **Particulate matter** | + | ====Particulate matter |
Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005. | ||
Line 101: | Line 99: | ||
Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates. | ||
- | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [((bibcite 4))], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM,,2.5,,. | + | Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in the 2019 EMEP Guidebook |
- | [[gallery size=" | + | {{ :sector: |
- | : 1A4aii_EM_PM.PNG | + | |
- | [[/ | + | |
===== Recalculations ===== | ===== Recalculations ===== | ||
- | **Activity data** hase been revised according to revised annual NEB line 67 shares and the finalized | + | **Activity data** hase been revised according to the now finalized National Energy Balance 2019. |
- | + | ||
- | __Table 5: Revised annual contribution of 1.A.4.a ii to over-all diesel oil deliveries provided in NEB line 67__ | + | |
- | | | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | + | ||
- | __Table 6: Revised activity data, in terajoules__ | + | |
- | | | **1990** | + | |
- | | **Diesel Oil** |||||||||||||| | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | 7.847 | 6.508 | 6.646 | 5.894 | 5.773 | 5.770 | 5.533 | 5.524 | 5.629 | 5.810 | 6.145 | 6.257 | 5.749 | | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | 7.774 | 6.413 | 6.316 | 5.851 | 6.213 | 6.314 | 6.158 | 6.348 | 6.562 | 6.885 | 7.153 | 7.343 | 6.816 | | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | | **Biodiesel** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 377 | 443 | 403 | 390 | 328 | 346 | 318 | 326 | 334 | 334 | | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 128 | 403 | 414 | 402 | 368 | 398 | 372 | 376 | 389 | 372 | | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | | **LPG** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | 2.787 | 3.450 | 4.261 | 4.533 | 4.629 | 4.557 | 4.484 | 4.409 | 4.333 | 4.256 | 4.336 | 4.301 | 4.264 | | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | 2.787 | 3.450 | 4.261 | 4.894 | 5.431 | 5.441 | 5.449 | 5.456 | 5.462 | 5.467 | 5.471 | 5.474 | 5.477 | | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | | **over-all fuel consumption** | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2021 | | + | |
- | ^ Submission 2020 | | + | |
- | ^ absolute change | + | |
- | ^ relative change | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | With all **emission factors** remaining unrevised, emission values have only been recalculated for 2017 as shown in the following table for the main pollutants. | + | |
- | + | ||
- | __Table 8: Recalculated emission estimates 2017, in kilotonnes__ | + | |
- | ||= ||= **NH,, | + | |
- | ||~ Submission 2020 ||> | + | |
- | ||~ Submission 2019 ||> | + | |
- | ||~ absolute change ||> | + | |
- | ||~ relative change ||> | + | |
+ | __Table 5: Revised activity data 2019, in terajoules__ | ||
+ | | | ||
+ | ^ current submission | ||
+ | ^ prvious submission | ||
+ | ^ absolute change | ||
+ | ^ relative change | ||
<WRAP center round info 60%> | <WRAP center round info 60%> | ||
- | For pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant specific | + | For **pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2019**, please see the recalculation tables following [[general: |
</ | </ | ||
===== Uncertainties ===== | ===== Uncertainties ===== | ||
- | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: " | + | Uncertainty estimates for **activity data** of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: " |
Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | Uncertainty estimates for **emission factors** were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published. | ||
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**//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | **//Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?// | ||
- | The EF provided in [((bibcite 4))] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' | + | The EF provided in [(EMEPEEA2019)] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant' |
- | + | ||
- | ------ | + | |
- | + | ||
- | [[bibliography]] | + | |
- | : 1 : AGEB (2019): Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; | + | [(AGEB2021> |
- | : 2 : BAFA (2019): Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, | + | [(BAFA2020> |
- | URL: https:// | + | URL: https:// |
- | : 3 : Knörr et al. (2019b): Knörr, W., Heidt, C., Gores, S., & Bergk, F. (2019b): ifeu Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH, ifeu): Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery (TREMOD MM) 2018, Heidelberg, | + | [(KNOERR2021b> |
- | : 4 : EMEP/EEA, 2019: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019, Copenhagen, 2019. | + | [(EMEPEEA2019> |
- | : 5 : Rentz et al. (2008): Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, | + | [(KNOERR2009> |
- | : 6 : Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; | + | |
- | [[/ | + |