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sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:international_maritime_navigation [2022/01/10 09:28] – [Table] kotzullasector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:international_maritime_navigation [2022/03/22 12:08] (current) – [Recalculations] kotzulla
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 ==== Activity data ==== ==== Activity data ====
  
-Primary fuel delivery data (primary activity data, PAD) for //international maritime navigation// is included in line 6 - 'International Deep-Sea Bunkers' of the National Energy Balances (NEB) (AGEB, 2020) [(AGEB2020)] together with respective data for IMO-registered ships used in //national maritime transport// (see 1.A.3.d ii (a)), //fishing// (see NFR 1.A.4.c iii) and //military navigation// (see NFR 1.A.5.b iii).+Primary fuel delivery data (primary activity data, PAD) for //international maritime navigation// is included in line 6 - 'International Deep-Sea Bunkers' of the National Energy Balances (NEB) (AGEB, 2021) [(AGEB2021)] together with respective data for IMO-registered ships used in //national maritime transport// (see 1.A.3.d ii (a)), //fishing// (see NFR 1.A.4.c iii) and //military navigation// (see NFR 1.A.5.b iii).
  
 The AD applied for //international maritime navigation// therefore represents the remains of primary fuel delivery data from NEB line 6 minus the modelled consumption data estimated for non-IMO ships in //1.A.3.d ii (a)//, //1.A.4.c iii// and //1.A.5.b iii//: The AD applied for //international maritime navigation// therefore represents the remains of primary fuel delivery data from NEB line 6 minus the modelled consumption data estimated for non-IMO ships in //1.A.3.d ii (a)//, //1.A.4.c iii// and //1.A.5.b iii//:
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 | <WRAP left round info 100%>  AD<sub>1.A.3.d i</sub> = PAD<sub>NEB line 6</sub> - AD<sub>1.A.3.d ii (a) - IMO</sub>  - AD<sub>1.A.4.c iii - IMO</sub> - AD<sub>1.A.5.b iii - IMO</sub>  </WRAP>  | with \\   * AD<sub>1.A.3.d i</sub> - tier1 activity data for International maritime navigation\\   * PAD<sub>NEB line 6</sub> - primary over-all fuel deliveries data from NEB line 6 - 'International Maritime Bunkers'\\   * AD<sub>1.A.3.d ii (a) - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in national maritime navigation\\   * AD<sub>1.A.4.c iii - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in national fishing\\   * AD<sub>1.A.5.b iii - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in military navigation  | | <WRAP left round info 100%>  AD<sub>1.A.3.d i</sub> = PAD<sub>NEB line 6</sub> - AD<sub>1.A.3.d ii (a) - IMO</sub>  - AD<sub>1.A.4.c iii - IMO</sub> - AD<sub>1.A.5.b iii - IMO</sub>  </WRAP>  | with \\   * AD<sub>1.A.3.d i</sub> - tier1 activity data for International maritime navigation\\   * PAD<sub>NEB line 6</sub> - primary over-all fuel deliveries data from NEB line 6 - 'International Maritime Bunkers'\\   * AD<sub>1.A.3.d ii (a) - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in national maritime navigation\\   * AD<sub>1.A.4.c iii - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in national fishing\\   * AD<sub>1.A.5.b iii - IMO</sub> - tier3 activity data for IMO-registered ships involved in military navigation  |
  
 +As a result, activity data can fluctuate strongly from year to year. 
 +
 +However, this effect can be explained with the fact that large ocean-going ships do not need to bunker fuels on every single harbour but can go on for weeks without any additional fuel uptake. 
 +
 +This can be further increased with increasing differences in fuel prices. 
  
 __Table 1: Annual fuel consumption, in terajoules__ __Table 1: Annual fuel consumption, in terajoules__
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 ^ Heavy fuel oil   |  76,942 |  62,066 |  67,080 |  83,224 |  83,164 |  101,820 |  101,466 |   90,542 |   91,169 |   90,779 |  85,586 |  75,559 |  71,598 |  57,792 |   74,807 |  58,707 |  39,308 |  26,565 |  32,253 | ^ Heavy fuel oil   |  76,942 |  62,066 |  67,080 |  83,224 |  83,164 |  101,820 |  101,466 |   90,542 |   91,169 |   90,779 |  85,586 |  75,559 |  71,598 |  57,792 |   74,807 |  58,707 |  39,308 |  26,565 |  32,253 |
 | **Ʃ 1.A.3.d i**  ^  90,104 ^  75,162 ^  80,789 ^  95,044 ^  98,793 ^  114,774 ^  109,542 ^  104,637 ^  107,586 ^  105,799 ^  97,768 ^  87,434 ^  85,398 ^  91,750 ^  107,639 ^  86,169 ^  60,781 ^  46,796 ^  46,150 ^ | **Ʃ 1.A.3.d i**  ^  90,104 ^  75,162 ^  80,789 ^  95,044 ^  98,793 ^  114,774 ^  109,542 ^  104,637 ^  107,586 ^  105,799 ^  97,768 ^  87,434 ^  85,398 ^  91,750 ^  107,639 ^  86,169 ^  60,781 ^  46,796 ^  46,150 ^
-source: own estimates based on underlying BSH model (Deichnik, K. (2020)) [(DEICHNIK2020)]+source: own estimates based on underlying BSH model (Deichnik, K. (2021)) [(DEICHNIK2021)]
  
 Consumption of heavy oil has been increasing since 1984 as a result of high petroleum prices, global increases in transports and increasing maritime use of diesel engines that can run on heavy oil. The emissions fluctuations that occurred in the navigation sector in 1992 and 1996 were caused by trade and oil crises. Consumption of heavy oil has been increasing since 1984 as a result of high petroleum prices, global increases in transports and increasing maritime use of diesel engines that can run on heavy oil. The emissions fluctuations that occurred in the navigation sector in 1992 and 1996 were caused by trade and oil crises.
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 ==== Emission factors ====  ==== Emission factors ==== 
  
-For **main pollutants** and **particulate matter**, modelled emission factors are available from (Deichnik, K. (2020)) [(DEICHNIK2020)]. +For **main pollutants** and **particulate matter**, modelled emission factors are available from (Deichnik, K. (2021)). 
  
 Here, for **sulphur dioxide** and **particulate matter**, annual values are available representing the impact of fuel sulphur legislation. Here, for **sulphur dioxide** and **particulate matter**, annual values are available representing the impact of fuel sulphur legislation.
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 **NFR 1.A.3.d i** is **not considered in the key category analysis**. **NFR 1.A.3.d i** is **not considered in the key category analysis**.
  
-Emission trends for unregulated pollutants (such as **NH<sub>3</sub>**, **NO<sub>x</sub>**, **NMVOC** and **CO**, all **HM** and **POPs**) with only slight changes in the annual over-all IEFs applied, follow the trends in fuel consumption and the shares of diesel and heavy fuel oil:+Basically, with no significant technical improvements with respect to mitigation technologies, trends in emissions depend more or less directly the amounts of fuels bunkered in German harbours and the contributions of diesel oil/light heating oil and heavy fuel oil to the over-all fuel input.
  
-{{ :sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:1a3di_em_nox.png?700 }}+Here, as the amounts of fuels allocated to international maritime navigation represent the remains of annual over-all inland fuel deliveries minus fuel consumption in domestic shipping, activity data and, hence, emissions, fluctuate strongly from year to year (see also information on activity data as stated above).
  
-On the other hand, the emission trends for **SO<sub>x</sub>** and **PM**, both depending on the fuel's sulphur content, follow not only the trends in fuel consumption but do also reflect fuel-sulphur legislation:+Therefore, especially emission trends for unregulated pollutants (such as **NH<sub>3</sub>**, **NO<sub>x</sub>**, **NMVOC** and **CO**, all **HM** and **POPs**) with only slight changes in the annual over-all IEFs applied, follow the trends in fuel consumption and the shares of diesel and heavy fuel oil:
  
-{{ :sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:1a3di_em_so2.png?700 }}+{{ :sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:em_1a3di_nox.png?700 }}
  
 +In contrast, emission trends for **SO<sub>x</sub>** and **PM**, both depending on the fuel's sulphur content, follow not only the trends in fuel consumption but do also reflect fuel-sulphur legislation:
 +
 +{{:sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:1a3di_em_so2.png?700| Annual sulphur oxides emissions }}
 +{{:sector:energy:fuel_combustion:transport:navigation:em_1a3di_pm.png?700| Annual particulate matter emissions }}
 ===== Recalculations ===== ===== Recalculations =====
  
-Resulting from changes in the fuel consumption data computed within [(DEICHNIK2020)] for //domestic// maritime navigation, the **activity data** for 2018 for //international// maritime navigation have been reviesed.+Resulting from changes in the fuel consumption data computed within [(DEICHNIK2021)] for //domestic// maritime navigation, the **activity data** for //international// maritime navigation have been revised for the entire timeseries. 
 + 
 +__Table 3: Revised annual fuel consumption data, in terajoules__ 
 +|                                ^  1990   ^  1995   ^  2000   ^  2005   ^  2006   ^  2007    ^  2008    ^  2009    ^  2010    ^  2011    ^  2012   ^  2013   ^  2014   ^  2015   ^  2016    ^  2017   ^  2018   ^  2019   ^ 
 +| **DIESEL OIL**                                                                                                                                                                                         ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 
 +^ current submission             |  13,162 |  13,096 |  13,709 |  11,820 |  15,629 |   12,954 |    8,075 |   14,095 |   16,417 |   15,020 |  12,181 |  11,875 |  13,801 |  33,958 |   32,832 |  27,463 |  21,473 |  20,231 | 
 +^ previous submission            |  12,748 |  12,919 |  13,664 |  11,993 |  15,817 |   17,524 |   13,105 |   14,412 |   16,662 |   15,370 |  12,594 |  12,414 |  13,674 |  33,088 |   28,093 |  22,924 |  15,213 |  18,327 | 
 +^ absolute change                |     413 |     176 |    44.9 |    -173 |    -188 |   -4,570 |   -5,030 |     -317 |     -246 |     -350 |    -412 |    -539 |     126 |     870 |    4,738 |   4,538 |   6,260 |   1,904 | 
 +^ relative change                |   3.24% |   1.36% |   0.33% |  -1.44% |  -1.19% |   -26.1% |   -38.4% |   -2.20% |   -1.48% |   -2.28% |  -3.27% |  -4.35% |   0.92% |   2.63% |    16.9% |   19.8% |   41.1% |   10.4% | 
 +| **HEAVY FUEL OIL**                                                                                                                                                                                     ||||||||||||||||||| 
 +^ current submission             |  76,942 |  62,066 |  67,080 |  83,224 |  83,164 |  101,820 |  101,466 |   90,542 |   91,169 |   90,779 |  85,586 |  75,559 |  71,598 |  57,792 |   74,807 |  58,707 |  39,308 |  26,565 | 
 +^ previous submission            |  68,484 |  56,323 |  60,984 |  78,182 |  78,257 |   96,625 |   96,017 |   85,865 |   86,934 |   86,687 |  81,171 |  71,364 |  67,670 |  57,850 |   74,837 |  58,781 |  39,380 |  26,601 | 
 +^ absolute change                |   8,458 |   5,743 |   6,096 |   5,042 |   4,907 |    5,195 |    5,449 |    4,678 |    4,236 |    4,092 |   4,415 |   4,195 |   3,928 |   -57.9 |    -30.0 |   -74.1 |   -71.7 |   -35.9 | 
 +^ relative change                |   12.4% |   10.2% |   10.0% |   6.45% |   6.27% |    5.38% |    5.68% |    5.45% |    4.87% |    4.72% |   5.44% |   5.88% |   5.80% |  -0.10% |   -0.04% |  -0.13% |  -0.18% |  -0.14% | 
 +| **OVER-ALL FUEL CONSUMPTION**                                                                                                                                                                          ||||||||||||||||||| 
 +^ current submission             |  90,239 |  75,275 |  80,910 |  95,187 |  98,941 |  114,946 |  109,706 |  104,794 |  107,747 |  105,958 |  97,914 |  87,565 |  85,527 |  91,888 |  107,800 |  86,299 |  60,872 |  46,866 | 
 +^ previous submission            |  81,354 |  69,346 |  74,760 |  90,310 |  94,215 |  114,320 |  109,286 |  100,428 |  103,751 |  102,210 |  93,905 |  83,904 |  81,466 |  91,075 |  103,085 |  81,828 |  54,674 |  44,995 | 
 +^ absolute change                |   8,885 |   5,929 |   6,150 |   4,877 |   4,726 |      626 |      420 |    4,367 |    3,996 |    3,748 |   4,009 |   3,661 |   4,060 |     813 |    4,715 |   4,471 |   6,197 |   1,871 | 
 +^ relative change                |   10.9% |   8.55% |   8.23% |   5.40% |   5.02% |    0.55% |    0.38% |    4.35% |    3.85% |    3.67% |   4.27% |   4.36% |   4.98% |   0.89% |    4.57% |   5.46% |   11.3% |   4.16% | 
 +<sup>1</sup> as provided in AGEB(2021) [(AGEB2021)], line 6: "Hochseebunkerungen": including light heating oil 
  
-__Table 3: Revised fuel consumption data 2018, in terajoules__ +In addition, all country-specific **emission factors have been revised** compared to last year's submission but cannot be displayed here.
-|                  ^  Diesel<sup>1</sup>  ^  Heavy fuel oil  ^  OVER-ALL  ^ +
-^ Submission 2021  |               15.213 |           39.380 |     54.674 | +
-^ Submission 2020  |               15.419 |           39.287 |     54.788 | +
-^ absolute change  |                 -206 |               92 |       -114 | +
-^ relative change  |               -1,34% |            0,24% |     -0,21% | +
-<sup>1</sup> as provided in AGEB (2020) [(AGEB2020)]: including light heating oil +
  
-In contrast, all country-specific and default **emission factors applied remain unrevised** compared to last year's submission. 
  
-<WRAP center round info 60%> +<WRAP center round info 65%> 
-For more information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2018, please see the pollutant-specific recalculation tables following chapter [[general:recalculations:start | 8.1 - Recalculations]].+For **pollutant-specific information on recalculated emission estimates for Base Year and 2019**, please see the recalculation tables following [[general:recalculations:start|chapter 8.1 - Recalculations]].
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 ===== FAQs ===== ===== FAQs =====
  
-[(AGEB2020> AGEB, 2020: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2018.html, Köln & Berlin, 2020.)] +[(AGEB2021> AGEB, 2021: Working Group on Energy Balances (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.), AGEB): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2019.html, Köln & Berlin, 2021.)] 
-[(DEICHNIK2020> Deichnik, K. (2019): Aktualisierung und Revision des Modells zur Berechnung der spezifischen Verbräuche und Emissionen des von Deutschland ausgehenden Seeverkehrs. from Bundesamts für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH); Hamburg, 2020.)]+[(DEICHNIK2021> Deichnik, K. (2021): Aktualisierung und Revision des Modells zur Berechnung der spezifischen Verbräuche und Emissionen des von Deutschland ausgehenden Seeverkehrs. from Bundesamts für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH); Hamburg, 2021.)]
 [(EMEPEEA2019> EMEP/EEA (2019): EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019, URL: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019; Copenhagen, 2019.)] [(EMEPEEA2019> EMEP/EEA (2019): EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019, URL: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2019; Copenhagen, 2019.)]
-[(RENTZ2008> Rentz et al., 2008: Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, FKZ 205 67 444, UBA Texte | 01/2008, January 2008; URL: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/nationaler-durchfuehrungsplan-unter-stockholmer )] 
 [(KNOERR2009> Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; final report; URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/461/publikationen/3937.pdf, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich, 2009.)] [(KNOERR2009> Knörr et al. (2009): Knörr, W., Heldstab, J., & Kasser, F.: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland; final report; URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/461/publikationen/3937.pdf, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich, 2009.)]